At 96hr the ECM 12z, UKMO 12z and GFSP 12z are all very similiar, the GFS op is different. Draw your own conclusions.

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The latest Snow Row Analysis for Brighton shows that the 6Z run was 'peak snow' and we've dropped back a bit.   The 12Z run may show a lot of green, but we lost some large spikes from the 6Z for the 22nd, 23rd and 25th Jan.   

Not sure why the chart image comes out so 'squashed' 

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There is no doubt more energy modelled into the northern stream from Saturday - EC for instance will look quite different from 168 than it’s 00Z iteration .
As I said earlier, this has a way to go yet.

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At 96hr the ECM 12z, UKMO 12z and GFSP 12z are all very similiar, the GFS op is different. Draw your own conclusions.

Only my opinion, but methinks the GFS 12z op is out on a limb.

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Well ecm 12z at t168 and lower heights to our north compared with the 0z run. Seems to have been a theme this afternoon. I was expecting the opposite to be honest.
Still lets wait for the eps before we pass judgement.

It could be a decent end (possibly) on the ECM 12z but it is also very inconsistent. It does all tie in rather well with the milder interludes and a general trend downwards in temperatures as mentioned in the Met Office forecast.

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Well ecm 12z at t168 and lower heights to our north compared with the 0z run. Seems to have been a theme this afternoon. I was expecting the opposite to be honest.
Still lets wait for the eps before we pass judgement.

The 12z ECM was never ever going to mirror this mornings effort , its no surprise 

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So let's hope this takes a southerly track and allow heights to build to our north?

Chart @ 216 hrs

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The 12z ECM was never ever going to mirror this mornings effort , its no surprise 

 

ECM is still very good similar to the Para .

 

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O/T Mr Fawkes " The week after next could be rather more interesting "

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ECM D9 Not too bad 

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At 96hr the ECM 12z, UKMO 12z and GFSP 12z are all very similiar, the GFS op is different. Draw your own conclusions.

But it returns cold at T168 when the main cold starts anyway. Perhaps more concern might have been the Azores HP moving back in at T240, and although a warm outlier there are several warmer runs then pushing the mean back to -4C in the 12z ensembles. But as the other charts haven't reached this point yet and with the Met Office predicting there will be milder blips during a prolonged cold spell I wouldn't be concerned at this stage.

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Generally a chilly 12z ECM op run and still on the same overall trend. Details TBC.

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D10 has the cold over the UK

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ECM looks very snowy day 9 and 10. It's similar if not as spectacular as the 0z run but good consistency. 

 

 

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The 12z ECM was never ever going to mirror this mornings effort , its no surprise 

Strange, I was just thinking how oddly similar the ECM at 240 was to the last run. Not quite as extreme, unsurprisingly, but still showing the jet digging way down into North Africa and flooding Europe with cold. Just hope it doesn’t correct any further eastwards!

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Strange, I was just thinking how oddly similar the ECM at 240 was to the last run. Not quite as extreme, unsurprisingly, but still showing the jet digging way down into North Africa and flooding Europe with cold. Just hope it doesn’t correct any further eastwards!

It ended in a similar fashion, I was comparing frame on frame, no complaints though , lets see the means 

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ECM looks very snowy day 9 and 10. It's similar if not as spectacular as the 0z run but good consistency. 

 

I can't recall seeing such marked trough disruption before where all the surrounding air is cold.

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Strange, I was just thinking how oddly similar the ECM at 240 was to the last run. Not quite as extreme, unsurprisingly, but still showing the jet digging way down into North Africa and flooding Europe with cold. Just hope it doesn’t correct any further eastwards!

Like this morning, it is showing heights gradually falling over continental Europe in the last couple of frames to the point of looking portentous. 

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Very nice end to the ecm 12z. Every thing a couple of hundred miles further east perhaps and not as amplified in the earlier stages as the 0z run. Eps I think will be good.
Still not able really to put any real detail in to surface conditions a week from now.