Up to +264

No sign of a Greenland Block or any HP over the Pole: - I do wonder if I should give the GFS OP run a break from looking at it because it never seems to be showing anything blocked or wintry in FI..!? To me this looks like it will end anything but blocked & cold. 

Then you have this:

AO goes negative but GFS charts show a really positive AO !?

it's amazing how much our expectations have lowered in the era of the "modern winter". After six weeks of mild to very mild dross, even the prospect of a few days of more seasonal temps is enough to get the coldies heartbeats racing. My waters tell me it won't last and winter 2018/9 will go down as yet another mild one- possibly close to record breaking when all is said and done.

Interesting and somewhat brave post considering the model output at the min.

So yes it has been mild to date but why that means there can’t be a pattern change doesn’t make any sense.

This is one for saving and reposting in a few weeks time, whatever happens!

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Here I go!.

Weather is looking fine and less cold on Monday and Tuesday, and Tuesday rain with Low Pressure affects NW and North UK away from South and Central UK hmm.

On Wednesday 16th, a Triple Front Low Pressure pushes band of heavy rain and mild sector SE, and cold air moves Southwards in the Afternoon and during Wednesday night and Thursday to Midday, cold with frosty evening night and morning.

Some wintry snow showers are possible the more North you are, the better. Cold air with a few wintry showers around on Thursday.

On Friday 18th January, it looks like being dry but will be cold I think, but what time Friday less cold air comes from West moving SE with North and NE staying cold Friday night and Saturday- some rain then sleet and snow on the back end in West Central and NE UK, band of sleet and snow follows the rain.

Saturday the 19th should see High Pressure and staying cold with frost early and late... NE winds in SE England on Saturday morning to evening.

There is indication that High Pressure in the Central North Atlantic, GFS, ICON shows - in following week after that, Low Pressure GFS plunges SE on the Sunday PM and to Tuesday, with cold weather and chance of wintry sleet and snow showers possible.

But looking at the UKMO and ICON versus the GFS, from Friday 18th to Saturday 19th, the NW SE then East moving Low Pressure and then High Pressure for Saturday and Sunday differs for the said time versus the GFS showing Cold NW winds on the Sunday 20th January..  Possible that Thunder snow might be possible this Wednesday 16th in afternoon and through evening.

12z GFS Para already significantly different than the old Gfs at 120h much more like the ukmo and GEM.  Hopefully a good run coming. 

Big spread in the GEFS on how that low behaves circa T+130. Not surprisingly, the Op is the mildest solution on the 850s. From there it really is a mess in terms of outcomes.

Yes the “short term” section of the GEFS data are steady.

I‘m not sure how good the GFSP whole run will be but in isolation it’s not massively important, remembering it is a version of the GFS. The ECM will add to the picture later.

GFSP 12z looking more progressive by 192.

GFSP 12z looking more progressive by 192.

It's a vortex-sinker, like the GEFS control. All good!

Talking of the GEFS, number 5 has us under the Black Hole of Doom! (And yes, with 945hPa SLP, the 850 line is much lower than usual. It's no surprise that the accompanying chart shows widespread snowfall from it.)

EDIT: Every single one of the members of the 12z GEFS shows widespread snow at some stage post-192. Marginal stuff on some of them, but that's where the UK's biggest snowfalls tend to come from...

On the subject of post 192hr, unsurprisingly the GFS op run was an mild outlier up here for some of that time period http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0

Surprised the Met hasn't issued a weather warning this evening for Shetland.

Possibly an inch or two of snow by Tuesday.

Another crazy snowy bonkers Para!

Surprised the Met hasn't issued a weather warning this evening for Shetland.

Possibly an inch or two of snow by Tuesday.

 

I think for the northern isles.....it would take more than a Max of 2c (tom and Tues)....and fairly light snow to encourage a met warning......but who am I to say....

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Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL

Surprised the Met hasn't issued a weather warning this evening for Shetland.

Possibly an inch or two of snow by Tuesday.

 

I’m not sure if it will be as snow much as that and they are probably used to the Met Office ignoring them  We may actually see a few flakes here overnight, but it’s hard to tell.

All sorts of weird and wonderful on the GFSP run so far. 

Surprised the Met hasn't issued a weather warning this evening for Shetland.

Possibly an inch or two of snow by Tuesday.

I'd imagine 2 inches of snow won't create that much disruption as it would in say, Surrey. 

Yet again it's the Para that keeps our hopes alive:

Compared to the GFS:

On the subject of post 192hr, unsurprisingly the GFS op run was an mild outlier up here for some of that time period http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3&runpara=0

It's astonishing just how steady the ensemble mean 850 mb temperature is for the last 9 or so days of the run, given the wide variety among the individual ensemble members.

How does the GFSP fare with verification? Seems keen on showing these lovely snowy scenarios run after run...

It's no ECM, but it outperforms current GFS Op consistently.

How does the GFSP fare with verification? Seems keen on showing these lovely snowy scenarios run after run...

Presumably if NOAA are intending for it to take aver from the current operational model in just a couple of weeks time, they must be fairly satisfied that - if not perfect - it's at least an improvement.