London snow row probably the highest it has been this winter.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

Also a few trenchers are starting to appear in the GEFS output. 

For sure Brian, first time over 100! 102 now the new record  I hope Kieran keeps doing the Brighton tracker, interesting to watch. 

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For sure Brian, first time over 100! 102 now the new record  I hope Kieran keeps doing the Brighton tracker, interesting to watch. 

I think the Inverness one has reached a high too, at 279 

Seriously though such “snow rows” are a good indication of the ensemble data at a glance and the trends are interesting.

If I had to make a forecast it would be for lots of mood swings, expectations, highs, lows, excitement, disappointment, a bit if reverse psychology and hopefully a bit of fun. As for the weather? Who knows!

Regardless of what if anything materialises it has been an interesting journey, a journey with a few more twists and turns to come no doubt. The trend is still clear in terms of temperature in the midterm and the ensemble data are encouraging if you want cold weather but the details are anyone’s guess as there is no overall consensus. 

It beats (charts showing) endless mild, wet and windy weather any day that’s for sure. 

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I think the Inverness one has reached a high too, at 279 

Seriously though such “snow rows” are a good indication of the ensemble data at a glance and the trends are interesting.

If I had to make a forecast it would be for lots of mood swings, expectations, highs, lows, excitement, disappointment, a bit if reverse psychology and hopefully a bit of fun. As for the weather? Who knows!

Regardless of what if anything materialises it has been an interesting journey, a journey with a few more twists and turns to come no doubt. The trend is still clear in terms of temperature in the midterm and the ensemble data are encouraging if you want cold weather but the details are anyone’s guess as there is no overall consensus. 

It beats (charts showing) endless mild, wet and windy weather any day that’s for sure. 

 

Liverpool up to 134 on the 6z. Don't remember it being higher. Biggest day total is 18.

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Different scenarios playing out as one would expect when looking at mid to longer range but with by far the majority going for cold. Very encouraging signs. The models seem to be locking on to the strat downwelling so hopefully some even better synoptics to come over the coming days.
Still a little to early for any details but would like to see some better amplification from the gfs in the near term as per some of the gefs.

 If I had to make a forecast it would be for lots of mood swings, expectations, highs, lows, excitement, disappointment, a bit if reverse psychology and hopefully a bit of fun. As for the weather? Who knows!

Probably  the most accurate forecast of the winter so far. 

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Even Plymouth has got double figures on the snow row.... I need to sit down..

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GFS 120 

UKMO 120

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UKM 144 Looks ok to me 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_144_1.png 

I suspect there will be some very interesting scenarios on display later in the op runs and/or ensemble members.

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Developments towards a much colder outcome have gathered pace today. The cold spell starts in just 4 days time thanks to the midweek polar incursion becoming trapped under an area of high pressure.

Nights will become very cold very quickly.

By as early as the latter half of next weekend disrupting troughs will be challenging our increasingly cold block.

Interesting times. 

 

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slightly underwhelming 12z so far ukmo looks decent but its not cold at day 6, GEM probably the best looks good late on but 850s look marginal but GEM 850s always seem to warm. GFS is poor upto 216.

 

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I see the GFS op is still in some form of progressive random scenario generator mode. Yet again, regardless of what it shows down the line I think I will wait for the GFSP and even more so the ensemble data.

Edit: Ally that UKMO 120hr chart is cold enough.

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Gfs 12z op is pants. The run says no strat down welling. Clueless. Hopefully the ens and para will be more enlightening.

Developments towards a much colder outcome have gathered pace today. The cold spell starts in just 4 days time thanks to the midweek polar incursion becoming trapped under an area of high pressure.

Nights will become very cold very quickly.

By as early as the latter half of next weekend disrupting troughs will be challenging our increasingly cold block.

Interesting times. 

 

It's looking a bit like us here at Kent biting into apples, the first couple or so not really tasting that great and then suddenly the third one is like "whoa! This could be the one". 

And then end up with gut rot.

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Big changes up north on 12z GFS look how more extensive the black is compared to 06z

Gfs 12z op is pants. The run says no strat down welling. Clueless. Hopefully the ens and para will be more enlightening.

 

Similar to that dodgy ECM 12z we had yesterday . Sadly this outcome can't be ruled out entirely. 

 

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it's amazing how much our expectations have lowered in the era of the "modern winter". After six weeks of mild to very mild dross, even the prospect of a few days of more seasonal temps is enough to get the coldies heartbeats racing. My waters tell me it won't last and winter 2018/9 will go down as yet another mild one- possibly close to record breaking when all is said and done.

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it's amazing how much our expectations have lowered in the era of the "modern winter". After six weeks of mild to very mild dross, even the prospect of a few days of more seasonal temps is enough to get the coldies heartbeats racing.

Have you actually looked at the charts over the last few days? 

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Gfs 12z op is pants. The run says no strat down welling. Clueless. Hopefully the ens and para will be more enlightening.

Copious quantities of caution required.  FI is going to shrink down to 120hrs, and, personally, as I have no expectations, nothing can disappoint me. 

Fascinating model watching, but much patience required methinks. For example, the pizza slice attack shown below will probably be gone come the 18z:

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Maybe Darren Betts words a few days ago are worth re posting

"Rather than the Beast from the East it may be bursts of colder air set forth from the north"