The Weather Outlook

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Lionel Hutz
20 December 2018 09:12:25
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=london 

The GFS spaghetti is starting to pick up one or two much colder solutions into the New Year. Straws in the wind, perhaps?

Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Solar Cycles
20 December 2018 09:12:38

The very fact that Steve Murr is absent tells me there's not much hope. I always felt December would be a complete write off, and so it's proved.
January will be completely different IMO. It's a case of much patience required.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

A third of the winter is nearly over now and we’ve had one frost and zero flakes of snow. If the projected SSW fails to deliver the right Synoptics for Blighty then we can write another winter off, bar the odd cold snap perhaps. I much prefer surface cold over Greenland promoting height rises there ( like December 2010 ) than having to rely on a SSW to save our winter. 

Gandalf The White
20 December 2018 09:13:36

The very fact that Steve Murr is absent tells me there's not much hope. I always felt December would be a complete write off, and so it's proved.
January will be completely different IMO. It's a case of much patience required.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

But there’s never been any suggestion in the models that we’d see a cold spell this side of 2019.  

There’s nothing to justify any greater confidence in a cold spell in January either until we see how the SSW plays out.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Solar Cycles
20 December 2018 09:15:03

 

I did say the effects of a SSW we’re unpredictable.

An SSW doesn’t guarantee cold weather any more than an absence of an SSW guarantees mild weather.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

A split would really enhance our chances but a displacement rarely ends well for us going of past form.

ballamar
20 December 2018 09:39:22
Hopefully today’s runs will begin to pick up on a pattern change, gone downhill a bit too quick
David M Porter
20 December 2018 09:39:46

It’s looking more and more likely that we’ll see a split rather than a displacement now, I think surface cold under a U.K. high being the holding pattern until we see the trickle effects of the above. I wonder if we can get a sustained well below average January under our belts?

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Hi SC

It was only exactly 8 years ago this month when we had a sustained well-below average winter month and one which turned out to the the coldest winter month overall since 1986 and the coldest December since 1890. Therefore one doesn't have to go back 30 years or more to find such an occurance. That was also only a year after what I believe was our coldest winter overall since that of 78-79.

The last couple of SSW that I know of (the one in Feb this year and the one of early 2013) have both led to notable outbreaks of cold in the UK, so who knows?

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Brian Gaze
20 December 2018 10:11:48

 

But there’s never been any suggestion in the models that we’d see a cold spell this side of 2019.  

There’s nothing to justify any greater confidence in a cold spell in January either until we see how the SSW plays out.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

That's simply not the case. The Met Office were talking about a cold December although the BBC long ranger didn't buy into it.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Gandalf The White
20 December 2018 10:14:44

 

It's starting from tomorrow onwards or do you mean from over the top of the N Pole?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

A gentle warming is not a SSW. The significant surge of warming is modelled on GFS for next week.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
20 December 2018 10:15:47

 

That's simply not the case. The Met Office were talking about a cold December although the BBC long ranger didn't buy into it.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I wasn't thinking about the long-range forecast, I was talking about the model output (as this is the discussion thread for that).

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Notty
20 December 2018 10:17:09

T

 

A gentle warming is not a SSW. The significant surge of warming is modelled on GFS for next week.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

but is the surge of warming modelled for next week any more reliable than anything else modelled for next week I wonder ...

Notty

Pontypool, 132m asl

Maunder Minimum
20 December 2018 10:17:13

 

Hi SC

It was only exactly 8 years ago this month when we had a sustained well-below average winter month and one which turned out to the the coldest winter month overall since 1986 and the coldest December since 1890. Therefore one doesn't have to go back 30 years or more to find such an occurance. That was also only a year after what I believe was our coldest winter overall since that of 78-79.

The last couple of SSW that I know of (the one in Feb this year and the one of early 2013) have both led to notable outbreaks of cold in the UK, so who knows?

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Hi David - I think the key word is January - colder than average January's appear to be rarer than hen's teeth these days

New world order coming.
David M Porter
20 December 2018 10:21:26

 

That's simply not the case. The Met Office were talking about a cold December although the BBC long ranger didn't buy into it.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

My recollection is that while the MetO did talk about a colder spell during December, they did also mention the possibility of milder & more unsettled weather returning at some point towards the end of the month. I can't be 100% certain of this until I read back through all the MetO forecasts that have been mentioned in the media thread in recent weeks, which I will try to do later. FWIW, we did have a colder spell of sorts during last week where I live when pressure was high over Scandi for a few days, that is until Storm Deirdre moved in last Saturday.

What I am fairly sure of though is that of the model output we have access to, there has at no time this month been any reall suggestion from any of them that a sustained cold spell was likely to occur this side of the festive season. Even when there was good agreement about last week's brief easterly spell, no model as far as I recall showed that it would likely be anything other than a brief affair.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

David M Porter
20 December 2018 10:25:13

 

Hi David - I think the key word is January - colder than average January's appear to be rarer than hen's teeth these days

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Let's hope so, Maunder. As the saying goes, we live in hope.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Maunder Minimum
20 December 2018 10:25:23

T

but is the surge of warming modelled for next week any more reliable than anything else modelled for next week I wonder ...

Originally Posted by: Notty 

Modelling the Strat is much more reliable than modelling the Trop.

The reason I have read is that the Strat has no surface features to disrupt the airflow - no mountain ranges, no variation between landmass and ocean etc.

 

New world order coming.
Solar Cycles
20 December 2018 10:42:11

 

Hi SC

It was only exactly 8 years ago this month when we had a sustained well-below average winter month and one which turned out to the the coldest winter month overall since 1986 and the coldest December since 1890. Therefore one doesn't have to go back 30 years or more to find such an occurance. That was also only a year after what I believe was our coldest winter overall since that of 78-79.

The last couple of SSW that I know of (the one in Feb this year and the one of early 2013) have both led to notable outbreaks of cold in the UK, so who knows?

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Are you referring to Dec 2010 Dave?

if so that wasn’t through a SSW however most SSW happen either mid or late winter and by then the chances of seeing  a week of lying snow ( if we get any at all ) are diminishing fast the further south you go.

Solar Cycles
20 December 2018 10:44:12

 

That's simply not the case. The Met Office were talking about a cold December although the BBC long ranger didn't buy into it.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Kudos to the Metogroup/Beeb, they’ve been closer to the mark for monthly forecast than the MetO, which is odd really seen as they get their data from them.

wallaw
20 December 2018 10:46:23

Kudos to the Metogroup/Beeb, they’ve been closer to the mark for monthly forecast than the MetO, which is odd really seen as they get their data from them.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

 

Do they?

Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

Solar Cycles
20 December 2018 10:49:22

 

 

Do they?

Originally Posted by: wallaw 

Indeed, it’s only MOGREPS and GLOSEA they don't have privy to.

Rob K
20 December 2018 10:50:15

T

but is the surge of warming modelled for next week any more reliable than anything else modelled for next week I wonder ...

Originally Posted by: Notty 

My perception (which could be wrong) is that stratospheric modelling is rather more reliable than modelling further down. Looking back at the archive charts for the last SSW in February, it was well modelled a couple of weeks in advance.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Chunky Pea
20 December 2018 10:50:37

Just looking at some historic strat graphs, and am surprised to see that there was only a little warming before Feb '86, which remains one of the coldest and most easterly Febs (over here at least) on record:

 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Rob K
20 December 2018 10:54:17

 The other crucial uncertainty is where any HLB forms and the data I’ve seen suggests a poor correlation between the position of Strat warming and trop HLB so don’t focus too much on where the remnant PV at 10HPa ends up.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Thanks, that is what I was uncertain about. The models seem to be showing that the 10hPa PV is likely to be smack over the UK come the beginning of January.

 

Incidentally Ian Fergusson was posting on Twitter yesterday about the possibility of nacreous clouds in the coming days as the strat temperature is unusually low over the UK (down to -85C).

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

The Beast from the East
20 December 2018 10:57:43

looking forward to some dry sunny weather over the Xmas period. Hopefully tonights rain will be the last for a while

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
20 December 2018 10:58:52

 

Incidentally Ian Fergusson was posting on Twitter yesterday about the possibility of nacreous clouds in the coming days as the strat temperature is unusually low over the UK (down to -85C).

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

What are they?

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Brian Gaze
20 December 2018 10:59:11

 

Thanks, that is what I was uncertain about. The models seem to be showing that the 10hPa PV is likely to be smack over the UK come the beginning of January.

 

Incidentally Ian Fergusson was posting on Twitter yesterday about the possibility of nacreous clouds in the coming days as the strat temperature is unusually low over the UK (down to -85C).

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I think Darren mentioned that on here a couple of week ago. It shows how the cold stratosphere has been well modelled and offers some support for what a few people mentioned in previous posts. The flip side of that coin is the numericals have so far been consistent in not bringing colder air into the UK. The current Europe 30 dayer has a weak positive 2m temperature anomaly even in mid January.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

roadrunnerajn
20 December 2018 11:02:44

looking forward to some dry sunny weather over the Xmas period. Hopefully tonights rain will be the last for a while

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Unfortunately not for us..we are forecast more rain on Sunday followed by a misty mizzle as that moderate mild breeze from the SSE flows over the sea. 

Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic. 80m asl

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