http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_177_1.png 

Just looks like a massive Greenland block is brewing

Did Shropshire mention zonality again? All together now, 'Grrrrrrrrr…'

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Both GFS and GFSP suggesting something more blocked in the run-up to Christmas this morning, and the GEFS also showing a definite dip in 850s until just before Christmas, at which point it reverts to wide scatter.

.

 

Can I just clarify: Does GFSP mean GFS paralell run?  And does GEFS mean the GFS ensembles??

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There is also a world of difference between pointing out someone's posting bias and a personal attack.

  

to an extent - yes...  But both happen regularly, and neither are in themselves particularly helpful.  Calling it out by posting counter-arguments supported by the models is whats needed... but all to often the attacks are at the poster direct, and don't give specific or meaningful counter arguments.

I am by no means proficient in model interpretation - so from my perspective seeing all sides of an interpretation is both interesting and valuable.

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_222_1.png 

Horrendous zonality 😮😂

 

 

Can I just clarify: Does GFSP mean GFS paralell run?  And does GEFS mean the GFS ensembles??

Yes.

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Yes.

 

Thank You!!

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_222_1.png

Horrendous zonality 😮😂

Recent GFS runs do seem to be consistent in showing the Atlantic starting to quiet down in a week or so's time. 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_222_1.png

Horrendous zonality 😮😂

It's a very peculiar pattern in that the further the primary ridge pulls away, the more influence it gains. Very odd. 

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A cold frosty Xmas morning 

 

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There’s nothing to be gained in forecasting from 7 days. Ensemble analysis dictates very low confidence in this period and up to around Christmas and there’s pretty much every solution available.
Somethings going on - I can smell it 😉

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All goes abit flat on GFS at the end but looks like a default scenario. Before that lack of energy in jet stream, blocking floating around - could be a special period over Xmas. At least will feel festive in the run up - period of snow for some this weekend as well!

There’s nothing to be gained in forecasting from 7 days. Ensemble analysis dictates very low confidence in this period and up to around Christmas and there’s pretty much every solution available.
Somethings going on - I can smell it 😉

Indeed Neil, still almost any synoptic pattern is possible for the Christmas period from high pressure through to an easterly or northerly or low pressure and west or south-westerlies.

The ECM 00z ensemble for London for 2m temperatures:

 

Reasonably tight agreement between GFS, ECM Op and its ensemble mean for the next week.  From Thursday next week there's the usual spread but two points stand out:  firstly the ECM op was in the mildest optionson days 9 and 10, and secondly there is still a strongish signal favouring a steady cool down.  The GFS 00z was amongst the colder options but sits within the colder options on ECM.

 

Here's the wind strength chart:

No evidence of any strong winds or storms there but also little evidence of the calm you would expect under high pressure. 

 

Finally, the precipitation chart:

 

A similar story with few runs giving completely dry conditions but not many runs producing significant rainfall events either.

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There’s nothing to be gained in forecasting from 7 days. Ensemble analysis dictates very low confidence in this period and up to around Christmas and there’s pretty much every solution available.
Somethings going on - I can smell it 😉

neil I hope it’s not another delivery of the Pizza Express you can smell 😉

 

neil I hope it’s not another delivery of the Pizza Express you can smell 😉

That’s fine next week - turkey and cranberry pizza sounds lush. After that a strict diet of low 850s and the pizzas will be on ice.

😉

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That’s fine next week - turkey and cranberry pizza sounds lush. After that a strict diet of low 850s and the pizzas will be on ice.

😉

😂

Amen to that 

Somethings going on - I can smell it 😉

 

It'll be the sprouts.

 

 

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There’s nothing to be gained in forecasting from 7 days. Ensemble analysis dictates very low confidence in this period and up to around Christmas and there’s pretty much every solution available.
Somethings going on - I can smell it 😉

Maybe Theresa May has managed to upset the weather as well.

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So while waiting what’s the predictions on 12z, I think the blocking signal will increase and be in more favourable positions. Zonality will become less and less likely.

 

It’s basically the opposite of that here - easterlies will almost always deliver rain (even the cold ones), a decent northerly (a rare Beast these days) will almost always give snow here.

On that subject some transient snow still looks possible for inland northern parts especially with elevation at the weekend before things become more unsettled (or not knowing the case of the 12z UKMO). Nothing too notable in terms of temperature one way or the other.

 

The transient snow on Saturday afternoon and evening shows up well here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=64&mode=42&map=5

 

scrolling through the times, there is the occasional yellow showing (ice pellet) which could make some routes slippery for a while

 

 

 

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