But let's just remember what the long-rangers last month suggested we should be seeing now...

UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Dec 2018 to Saturday 22 Dec 2018:

Any more unsettled weather at the start of this period is likely to be quite short-lived. The weather is then expected to turn calmer and more settled, but this will bring increased likelihood of fog, especially later in the month. Temperatures will probably be around average at first, with a few milder days but also some overnight frosts under clearer skies. Things may then start to turn generally colder later in the period.

And how much frost have we seen since 8th and will see? Very little if any!!

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Latest update from the Met Office continues to suggest an increased chance of colder weather beyond Christmas.

 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 18 Dec 2018 to Thursday 27 Dec 2018:

Tuesday will see some unsettled and windy weather with coastal gales, cloud, and outbreaks of rain and drizzle moving eastwards across the UK. The rain and drizzle will be followed by sunny spells and scattered, blustery showers. Showers will fall as snow over northern higher ground. As we head through the remainder of the week and into the Christmas week it will probably stay unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain, these interspersed by some brighter and showery weather. Temperatures on the whole look likely to be a little milder than average. However, in the period after Christmas Day there is an increased likelihood that milder spells will become short-lived and a colder and more showery northerly or northwesterly regime could become established across the UK.

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Dec 2018 to Friday 11 Jan 2019:

The most likely scenario for the end of December is for periodically unsettled Atlantic weather to move across the UK from the west. However, there is an increased likelihood that the milder, Atlantic weather will become short-lived and a colder and more showery northerly or northwesterly regime will become established across the UK. Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood of a return to colder than average conditions with an increase in the likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow.

Updated: 02:10 on Thu 13 Dec 2018 GMT

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Yep, am liking that update

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Interesting update today from the Met Office. Note the final sentence of each section.

 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Dec 2018 to Friday 28 Dec 2018:
Cloud and rain should clear east early on Wednesday with sunshine and blustery showers following. The showers most frequent in the northwest and west where there is the risk of hail and thunder with some hill snow in the north. Some patchy fog may be slow to clear on Thursday with fewer showers and lighter winds. It is then likely to remain mostly unsettled through the rest of the period with spells of rain and strong winds. The heaviest rain will be in the west with eastern parts staying generally drier. With the unsettled weather temperatures are likely to be around or a little above average. However, there is a small chance of a colder and showery spell developing during Christmas week.

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:
The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

Updated: 03:25 on Fri 14 Dec 2018 GMT

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MOGREPS must be onto something if they’re thinking the back end of this month could turn colder. I’ll await the next few updates with fingers crossed that from here on it’s one upgrade after another. 😁

Level 2 cold weather alert issued for all of England apart from London and the southwest

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:59 on Thu 13 Dec 2018

There is a % probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0600 on Friday 14 Dec and 0900 on Monday 17 Dec in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

High confidence for increasingly widespread overnight frosts by the weekend, and less cold conditions spreading east during Saturday. Low confidence at this stage for the extent of any heavy snow and icy conditions on Saturday and at first Sunday across more northern areas.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

That alert is laughable! Colder with overnight frosts over the weekend but less cold weather moving east on Saturday???? A bit of frost, ice and snow on hills? Hardly worth a warning.

We don't bother with those up here. We just do up another button 😂

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That alert is laughable! Colder with overnight frosts over the weekend but less cold weather moving east on Saturday???? A bit of frost, ice and snow on hills? Hardly worth a warning.

We don't bother with those up here. We just do up another button 😂

Someone from Yorkshire cracked a similar joke last winter in response to a cold weather warning, along the lines of "You'll need your winter coat on"

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That alert is laughable! Colder with overnight frosts over the weekend but less cold weather moving east on Saturday???? A bit of frost, ice and snow on hills? Hardly worth a warning.

We don't bother with those up here. We just do up another button 😂

It's not a severe weather warning for the public - just the 'public' version of an alert for the NHS and local authorities that is automatically triggered by temperature and other criteria that are known to impact on bed availability and other service provision.

Level 2 isn't very high. I'm only guessing but any possibility of freezing rain will mean A&E face a spike of elderly people with leg and hip fractures and planning for that helps a lot.

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Next week 

Unsettled
Fairly mild
Colder in time for Christmas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46574706 

N Miller hinting at colder weather for Xmas 

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Level 2 cold weather alert issued for all of England apart from London and the southwest

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:59 on Thu 13 Dec 2018

There is a % probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0600 on Friday 14 Dec and 0900 on Monday 17 Dec in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

High confidence for increasingly widespread overnight frosts by the weekend, and less cold conditions spreading east during Saturday. Low confidence at this stage for the extent of any heavy snow and icy conditions on Saturday and at first Sunday across more northern areas.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

What? it was 5c today in London?...too windy for frosts and ice? been no rain ...so how? As for snow? Not cold enough? Why cold weather alert? Why do we have to be alerted anyone?

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What? it was 5c today in London?...too windy for frosts and ice? been no rain ...so how? As for snow? Not cold enough? Why cold weather alert? Why do we have to be alerted anyone?

Even here in Edinburgh, we haven't had a single official air frost at any of my three local stations during this so called "cold" spell which when you consider that this is supposed to be our "winter" after all, is just really abysmal.

Yesterday afternoon, it had looked as though we might finally get that elusive air frost as the temperatures showed signs of dropping immediately after sunset. Since then though, the temperatures have actually gone up a bit as the night has gone on, to the point where it was now up to around 3°C here at midnight.

Now I know that the warning in question only applies to England, but you have to ask the question of what chance there is of it being really cold down in England when we can't even get a decent cold spell in this part of Scotland which should be colder on average.

 

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As I tried to explain above and apparently failed, "we" are not the subject of this alert. It is the NHS and to some extent, socal services who run care homes, to indicate at what level they should be in their winter planning as that level has been triggered by forecast temperatures for a short period. The reason it appears to apply to just England is that NHS Scotland and NHS Wales are handled separately.

I don't know why people bother posting these warnings here. They're not part of the severe weather warning system that applies to the general public and the non-healthcare parts of local authority emergency planning (that I once sat on). Their terminology is tied in with NHS planning documents and is largely meaningless outside that context. Level 2 is essentially just being prepared for colder conditions and the effect they have on NHS admissions and staff resources based on past correlation. It's about as low a warning as one can get this time of year. The triggers are listed on the alert page - they do not require particularly extreme conditions and the probability can be as low as 60%.

I suspect the slight possibility of freezing rain has provided an ice trigger for the alert as this can severely impact A&E.

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I suspect the slight possibility of freezing rain has provided an ice trigger for the alert as this can severely impact A&E.

Dunno about slight - it's in with a big clutch of weather warnings for quite a large area of the country - high impact (obviously) and just short of 'very likely' on the detailed grid. But I see the M4 weathershield is in operation - just ordinary rain down here, though persistent.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-12-15 

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 Dunno about slight - it's in with a big clutch of weather warnings for quite a large area of the country - high impact (obviously) and just short of 'very likely' on the detailed grid. But I see the M4 weathershield is in operation - just ordinary rain down here, though persistent.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-12-15 

Yes, quite heavy rain too. Even if it's shortlived, this could be rather nasty. I've never experienced it to the extent that it brings down power lines but I've seen roads become like skating rinks in a few minutes.

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning colder in the new year?

Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 20 Dec 2018 to Saturday 29 Dec 2018:

Thursday should start showery, especially in the north and west, but the showers should die out through the day, and the brisk breeze in the south should ease too. Temperatures will be around normal, so some overnight frosts are likely. Further wet and windy weather is then expected to arrive from the west on Friday. It is then likely to remain mostly unsettled through the rest of the period with spells of rain and strong winds. The heaviest rain will be in the west with eastern parts staying generally drier. With the unsettled weather temperatures are likely to be around average, or a little above in the south. However, there is a small chance of a colder and showery spell developing during Christmas week.

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:

The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

Friday starts dry for most with patchy frost and fog, but cloud and rain already in the southwest will spread northeastwards through the day. Clearer, windy and showery conditions follow from the southwest later, these lasting into Saturday. Unsettled weather is likely to continue into the Christmas period, with further spells of rain possibly preceded by hill snow, and with strong winds at times. However during the last week of December there is a chance that the weather pattern will become slow-moving, with some more settled drier conditions developing, and with any rain increasingly confined to the north and west. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around average, but turning colder should more settled conditions develop.

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2018 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

Going into the New Year there is an increasing likelihood of the weather pattern becoming slow-moving or even "blocked", with Atlantic frontal systems held at bay by slow-moving areas of high pressure. This may result in more generally settled and cold weather conditions becoming established. This brings and increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost, and fog or freezing fog which may be slow to clear. When any frontal systems do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to be below normal, and often cold.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Good update 

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