Today's present for cold weather fans.... GEFS P9 shows a #BeastFromTheEast weather pattern by Nov 18th, but there is NO support for this in the ensemble. Big outlier. https://t.co/czE8MQRZl5 pic.twitter.com/lbOqAh1Duk

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 3, 2018

What I am saying was that the pattern back on 26th Jan 2017 gave us a south to south easterly breeze and we still had daytime maxes of 0c or -1c

The pattern we have on Sat 10th Nov has a south to south easterly breeze! SO ...? southerly or south easterly even could me cold - as it did back on 26th Jan 2017, hence why I said if this pattern occurred in winter it could be a cold wind as the winds coming off the near continent, once the continent has cooled in months like Dec, Jan or FEB etc.

Its the 3rd of November!!  That kind of pattern in September would have brought lovely mid 20's 😉 But hey it's November now.

A step backwards from a cold outlook this morning, mobile and wet for many in the West a little drier the further East you are. That’s about it really. 😏

I can see a 15C max potentially on Arome, so 16/17C is possible I suppose somewhere but it’s probably not that ‘extraordinary’. The date record is 21.1C in 1938.

NMM shows parts of the south hitting 17c tomorrow and Tuesday

Unlikely to break any records (21.1c & 19.8c) but it would be feeling very pleasant for the time of year

Hi all there.

I last posted on here on 28th August 2018. So it’s been a long time since.

😆😀.

There is expected to be a good two part split in the UK weather- actually 3 parts.  Regular North Atlantic Low Pressure with Conveyor belt Short wave Low Pressure trofs.

Strong North Atlantic PV and also in North and NE Canada to NE USA.  I can see that it also is very Low Pressure dominated in Central to N and NE Pacific to West and South and Central USA as well.  More warmth with mild high pressure in Central and ENE Europe as well.

There is both mixed weather and settled as well as unsettled pressure systems affecting the East SE UK and West to Central Norwegian Sea.

Very likely that mild conditions will affect South and East UK for regular periods.

Some colder weather mixed with mild weather in Wales N. and. Central and N. as well as East Ireland and West to N England and Scotland, with SW England also very similar but they will see more SW winds there,while Westerly winds will occur in those aforementioned parts of the UK.

I notice the Scandy NE Europe High extends for a few days to Southeast and Central Norwegian Sea next few days, warm Southerly winds affecting much of West and Central Europe, cool and chilly weather is being shown to affect the UK after this Monday. .

Mixing of warm air into the Southwest then SE of the Cold North and NW Atlantic major PV Low.  This is expected to affect much of the UK with mild wet and windy conditions, colder in North and NW Atlantic and WNW UK.

I started my first guess at Week 3 of this November (Speculative) at 09:38 a.m. on the 28th August.  The unfolding situation has good potential for it to change or turn in any direction it wants to!!😆.

😏😃.

No signs of the Atlantic going into maximum overdrive yet, but recent model runs have suggested it will punch through the "Eastern Front" more easily than looked likely a few days ago. An extremely interesting period coming up IMO.

Evidence if ever it was needed that looking, and attempting to forecast, beyond 7 days is quite a challenge.

IMHO, we're not going to see anything conducive for cold (certainly in my location - SE England) for the next couple of weeks - TBH that's pretty obvious from the current model output. It seems every year someone likes to bat around a particular teleconnection to explain everything, but I think the MJO is playing a role at the moment and will continue to do so on and off for the next month or so (given the warm Enso region).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

If you want cold, then look for the last week of November into Dec since there's a good chance that the MJO will emerge in Phase 7/8 around that time - which given the time of year should encourage a blocking signal; then we need a bit of luck.  All being well, we can now expect to see the far end of the GEFS FI range begin to show some more blocked scenarios as they pick up on where the MJO may be around that last part of the month.

If we get an MJO cycle of 7-1 (maybe 2) in early Dec, then it might just lead to quite a decent cold spell. 

I agree with the comments regarding the other forums and will make Two my home this winter (sorry guys!) - the debate here is more grown up with less toys being thrown out of prams; I think it's an age thing etc.

An extended wet & windy spell must be the form horse down here (S.E. England) given how dry it's been for the last 6 months down here. Law of averages and all that - though I know not all of you believe in that on here.

The warmth in eastern/SE Europe is insane. Looking at the Meteociel Europe map it appears that Bistrita in northern Romania reached a high of 26C today (rounded to the nearest whole degree). According to Wikipedia their November record is 21.6C so the record has been well and truly smashed!

I know crazy in Budapest 18 to 22c is expected in a few days time and with sunny spells! I remember in 2015 in November for my birthday when it merely reached +1c by day and I remember going back in 2016 in (mid November) when there was heavy sticky wet snow temps only at +2c to +3c all day and wet with sleet. - So only some 20c warmer than it was this time two years ago in Budapest!! 

At least the nights are cool at 5 or 6c. - As the hotel will not have air con on during mid November.  

Back on Topic - just looking at the Zonal winds forecast on weatheriscool.com

There still seems to be a drop in the strength of the zonal winds come December and into January, some ensemble members look like they are going very negative: - But how reliable is this!?

The plus side it’s only the first week of November but we really need that Euro 🐌 out of the way rather than watch it wax and wane over the next few weeks. The front loaded winter forecasts are beginning to look a little shaky even now.

Yes a dire set of runs and not sure what the Met Office udpate make of this as I always had faith in their forecast - I remember on 21st Feb before the beast from the east they forecast a blizzard or blizzard conditions to hit the South or south West and i thought to myself yeah right' but low and behold they were correct!' - We got a blizzard and another one 2 weeks later on 17th to 18th March. 

Back to this - i don't know what's up with our weather - it's looking so mild over eastern Europe if not warm - i am use to packing scarf and gloves but with temps of 17c or 18c I may bring short sleeve T shirts.

Also that website weatheriscool.com showing the forecast of the zonal winds strength keeps chopping and changing. Last week or even a few days back it showed that the zonal winds will go negative from mid November and beyond into December - in fact almost a crash in the zonal winds and now they show them going quite significantly positive - same for the AO and NAO. - Which were due to go negative are now forecast to stay positive side of neutral!! 

On the flip side of that I’ve seen such forecasts flop and fail before mostly due to the timescales involved.

It won’t come as too much of a surprise to the majority of contributors here that these long range forecasts chop and change quite routinely. It’s called the weather - it tends to do that quite a lot 😉

The Arctic and Sub North Atlantic and Arctic Jetstream are currently buoyed and rammed together and a two Zonal Jetstream type pattern, West to East and SW to NE and NW to SE turns at times which are not favouring any significant chance of colder weather for UK.

Then we have further entrenching from the MJO Central Pacific- USA and West to NW Atlantic- tracking across UK to our West and SW- SW Europe corner.

Western N Atlantic and North USA blocking High Pressure and this mean Sceuro Bartlett High that regularly keeps us with mild winds and weather that is bright and drier.

It is not looking too often wet and windy either.  large parts of UK away from the West and NW shall see less rain but it looks like some heavy rain on Wednesday, and Friday to early Saturday and again on Sunday to Monday as well is on the cards, Tuesday could be very settled and very mild with light Southerly winds across many parts especially the further East and south you are.  With more Low Pressure across the North Atlantic by Wednesday Thursday next week.