Last nights 12z temp anomaly update shows the vast majority of Europe to be around or a bit above average parts of SE Europe are shown to be well above average

The continuing trend of heights to the North reminds me of 2009!

2 weeks is long way off, and obviously a lot can change, but the idea of a series of lows pulling air from Greenland / Iceland (rather than more usual SW) does rather seem to be a growing trend. An example is here

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=348&mode=0&carte=1 

If this came off it would be very stormy around mid-month with severe gales

Very little blocking on 12z run

The GFS 12z runs often tend to ramp up the jet, in my experience.

Of course, it could end up being like this.

Yes - P2 is a corker

Typically ( similar to March 13 ) watch the models go backwards over the next 24 -48 hours with the high becoming more & more tilted NW instead of North & as it does so so the blocking will allow more curvature of the winds over Scandi - swinging more & more in favour of that cold pool advecting SW-
This rare scenario of high pressure retrograding NW is one of only 2 routes to a proper Greenland / Svalbard blocking High....

happy Christmas from the CFS:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1254&mode=0&carte=1&run=0

in all seriousness, there are continued signals for heights to the north and this is repeated on the CFS run.

The  forecast seems to be of depressions sitting off the west coast for some time to come. Wind and rain at regular intervals for the NW, with occasional fronts struggling across to the SE. But the consequence is for a general tendency for winds from the south or southwest, so no really cold weather - borne out by the ensembles which show a slow and erratic cooling, at least for the SE.

A gradual move towards the increased influence of blocking to the N and E is quite evident. I’m surprised at some of the longer range forecasts being so confident in mobility given these trends.

On this run this appears to be the tipping point - if the low can slide and split the HP then some cold conditions could entail or if the Azores high links to the continental then mild SW

Bonfire night looks rather mild as has become fairly common in recent years

Looking mostly dry bar a bit of rain in the west

Should be quite a pleasant evening for most parts 

Not bad for the time of year

At least it wouldn't be cold

Perfect summer set up! Spanish Plume Anyone?

Don't pack the shorts and flip-flops away yet 

Pattern for next Sat 10th Nov - could actually be very cold if this were December, Jan or Feb:

Scroll down.

Well we all remember this scenario back in 26th Jan 2017 - Many parts of the south east stayed below freezing all day with snow grains and notice this is a similar pattern to that's forecast for Sat 10th Nov 2018?!

Eastern Europe showing a major cooling

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

though the ensembles don't see it as a long-lasting feature. 

Still no sign of any imminent cold getting anywhere near the UK.  Very early days of course. A rather boring spell of weather coming up over the next 10/ 15 days 

Not quite sure I see your logic there Tally. The overall synoptic pattern is similar but the weather type - or rather 2m temps- are a world apart. In 2017 Several weeks of CAA across Central Europe provided the source cold air. At the moment it’s only early Nov and the continent hasn’t cooled down yet.

I’m not sure why some people like to compare patterns a few months apart let alone seasons. On the day fair enough  but even a few weeks can be the difference between a warm SE breeze or a cold one.

Unsettled and reasonably mild from ECM to start

We then get a slightly cooler phase as the high begins to drift back towards the UK

Before turning milder again as the high set's up just to our south