The problem arises, as in the last few days, when you do not get consistency between different models or different runs of the same model in the medium to longer term. There’s little point in posting a chart for one scenario at day 7 and then six or 12 hours later the equivalent chart but showing a totally different scenario. The only purpose it would serve is to highlight a lack of consistency in the model. It does take time to get a good picture of what is going on, but a partial picture may be worse than simply looking at a forecast (which is based on a fuller picture).

On the rare occasion you get consistent op runs in FI it usually indicates a strong signal and is good take note of. Sadly much of the time that is not the case and looking at the individuals runs can easily give the wrong impression. 

I could, for example, post the following chart and say that Saturday looks incredibly unsettled across much of the U.K. bu that would confuse people based on a different operational run of a different model showing a different scenario. Which is right? 

There is a reason forecast use as much data as possible. I realise for many that is not an option as it is time consuming - it is however more reliable.

While we are in the cool zone, a huge blocking High over Western Russia, Central Europe is giving some incredible temperatures there, in Krakow on Thursday predicted 22 c !! quite incredible for this time of year. They have had a terrific run of warm/hot weather starting 2nd week of April and still lasting. I believe not only the Greenland Highs can give us poor weather but also when such strong Highs over Western Russia, Central Europe have a bigger influence than we think.

ECM - again a long way off but quite a big area of HP/ northern blocking developing over the Arctic stretching down and into Scandinavia: @240:

 This could well push cold air out of Pole and a wintry blast towards the end of November but who knows? This is only one ECMWF run and it's in FI but the ECMWF is the most reliable of them all IMO! 

Such a quiet tread on here:

Yet again - still there is a northern blocking signal for the 2nd week of November according to the ECM's latest 00z run:

ECM 12z doesn't look overly cold from around Friday as we begin to bring winds in from the south or south-west. The cold air is pushed a long north 

18z Op - Looking more and more blocked each run: Notice how these LP systems just stall and then fizzle out!! Also Notice how that HP moves north westward towards Scandinavia and then retrogresses towards Iceland and then Greenland deep into FI - A long way off but given the met Office forecast for the next 16-30 days this is worth keeping an eye on! 

Ex-Oscar brewing up a storm with severe gales and rain for Northern Ireland and NW Scotland on Fri/Sat - but unjustifiably, even given the low population density in that area, the forecast is in the 'dog bites man' category.

Little change from ECM overnight with the cold air pushed a long way north. Unsettled at times for the UK with the risk of heavy rain and strong winds.

If you can ignore the short term rubbish mild gunk this is potentially setting up for some incredibly interesting Synoptics. Yes we could be on the mild side of blocking but it looks more likely cold frosty and foggy conditions will be upon us by mid month. Get the cold in place and all that......

The interesting things are happening in the Artic - the PV looks disorganised and northern blocking is on the menu. That always has to be the first part of the jigsaw - the last thing we coldies want to see if the PV taking up residence in its usual place with the zonal train coming in.

When we get blocking, it does not automatically mean we get cold straight away - but it is part of the process of getting cold weather down the line.

Yes re the 06z I know this is FI but the trend is a blocked 2nd half of November now.- Soon the ECM will follow but only goes up to 240z. Notice how these LP systems take a southerly track and then die out as HP moves

into Scandinavia toward the end

 I shall be in Budapest between 10th and 17th November and they have been experiencing temperatures some 10c above normal lately. The positioning of the high is crucial as to where or not we get warm air or cold air (easterly).

The 00z climate outlook didn't show much in the way of below average temps widely across Europe

Crikey I didn't realise the GFS Op has been upgraded from T+384 to T+262800.

12z ECM following on from previous runs with mild west or southwesterly winds for the UK plenty of wind and rain but a few shorter calmer interludes

But from the N. Pole view down - even the ECM - looks like quite a northern blocking starting to take shape around +240:

Certainly not a strong PV that's for sure!

It could prove very wet for some SWern parts if thyou ECM run verifies (the GFS/GEFS output is less wet) and very windy at times in the west or more especially northwest. Mostly around average temperature wise but maybe a degree or so above in places at times, nothing notable.

And talking of that a major Atlantic storm looks set to batter the North West this weekend, thereafter standard late Autumnal fayre looks the best bet of wind and rain, though not a total washout for sure.

Little change again overnight from ECM the UK turns milder but with some deep lows bringing heavy rain and strong winds with a few shorter calmer interludes in between

A turnaround from previous outputs this morning, Scandy heights are sinking leading us into the dreaded Euro slug whilst heights lower over Greenland at the same time.

Let’s hope we don’t see a change in the wording in the extended output from Exeter over the next day or so.