Without looking at specifics the patter is interesting
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_186_1.png
Lots of blocking and potential for sliding/sinking low pressure. PV might ramp up suddenly but at lease it’s not zonal all the way through Scandi

Far out in FI:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

But GFS has a completely split vortex at t+384 - 10th November. If it does happen like that, would lead to an extended early winter very cold spell.

With the continued propensity for high pressure blocking another SSW is quite likely.

Can I place my order for an SSW toward the end of November, please.

With the continued propensity for high pressure blocking another SSW is quite likely.

GFS 12Z has a temporary covering of snow over the Downs on Saturday. Either that or a large seagull has flown over 

The 2nd half of next week could be very different to the 1st as milder air sweeps across Europe

GFS 12Z has a temporary covering of snow over the Downs on Saturday. Either that or a large seagull has flown over 

The metoffice are on to it...

The 2nd half of next week could be very different to the 1st as milder air sweeps across Europe

Yes it does look as though after a brief cold blast the block may set up in a position that brings southerlies to the UK (and also traps Atlantic depressions over us, giving a rather wet spell into early November).

Usually at this point someone claims to know someone in the council ordering extra grit!!

interestingly the fleet all reappeared at the gritter depot behind sandbach services since monday 

AND they have snow plough attachments in there too 

Meanwhile, east of the Urals winter makes a serious appearance - see chart for 2nd week.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

ECM wants to keep a slack southerly drift over much of UK from late next week...GFS Op is more bullish with a rare Atlantic pattern about to set up....

that probably means we'll get something in between.. More rain towards an already wet NW Scotland and mildish flat weather in the southern half of the UK. 

Its like we're in a state of limbo until the weather can decide which way to go!!!

Certainly looks wetter next week, regardless of temps:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

It is the little area of low pressure over the near continent that is responsible for much of that. Or, depending on which model you go with, several southerly tracking areas of low pressure moving across the country to the North Sea. Not overly pleasant.

 

It is the little area of low pressure over the near continent that is responsible for much of that. Or, depending on which model you go with, several southerly tracking areas of low pressure moving across the country to the North Sea. Not overly pleasant.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

10 days away but loaded with potential for wintry weather - need the lows to slide and set up over the warm waters in the med!

There is always potential when the PV is disorganised - long may it continue.

The peculiar thing is that the more HLB there is the more likely it is to persist. That is why it is good to see it so early in the season - as we know from winters past, once the PV and the attendant zonal train gets into motion, it takes something like a sledge hammer in the form of a major SSW to shift it.

Usually at this point someone claims to know someone in the council ordering extra grit!!

Was certainly tabled in a meeting I had in Bristol this week...