Do we get the long-awaited hot August next year? 

Yes: nailed on.

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Even the Ens for Liverpool, Belfast & Glasgow look mostly dry within the hi-res period. Whilst nice, it's a pity August seems favourite to be the most unsettled month in the May-September period

 

 

I don't believe there'll be one 18/19 drought, rather two separate ones across the summers, but punctuated by a lot of PPN during the forthcoming winter (although MOST of that PPN will fall as rain). You heard it here first.

Corrected 

GFS Ens offering very summery outlook in several runs this morning.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=908

P8 (albeit just one run, there is some clustering well above the 10C 850 line) offers these 6pm temps. for CS England from 1st to 13th:

21  25  24  24  26  27  27  30!  28  29  28  27  26   giving a 13 day average max of about 26.3C.

6am temps are even more stunning:

14  14  13  15  15  18  19  17  19  18  19  19  18   average about 16.7.  A local mean temp of over 21C approaching mid month. I think 1999 had a sparkling start to September of this sort of scale.

P18 and P6 do a similar job but both cool down after 12th. P6 has 30C on 11th and 12th Sep with several 29s preceding.

The caveat with the ensembles is the increasing spread with time, so cool runs increase too, but even by 10th there are only 5 below average runs over England & Wales, with 13 above average and 9 24C + maxes, and by 12th, the cool Ps are down to 4 and the 24+ s up to 10. 

Let's hope the signal is maintained in future runs.

 

 

 

 

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Back to downgrades on the 06z including much wetter ens.

Should have realised, persistence is the rule in the UK and pattern changes (which this would be) are always harder to achieve than more of the same. It took a good 2 months of threatened breakdowns before we finally changed from the settled weather of early summer.

So the fizzle that is late summer 20-8 continues.

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Back to downgrades on the 06z including much wetter ens.

Should have realised, persistence is the rule in the UK and pattern changes (which this would be) are always harder to achieve than more of the same. It took a good 2 months of threatened breakdowns before we finally changed from the settled weather of early summer.

So the fizzle that is late summer 20-8 continues.

Yeah, I posted my last post before my morning triple espresso. Awake now though.

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Somewhere that had 1mm of rain in June and 6mm in July. Ie not the south coast. This is the 1975 anyway. By September 2019 we will be on water rationing.

 

Ditto Heathrow area, 54 days of absolute drought just 0.3m in June even August is still below average. 

Well September is going to be a scorcher according to The Mirror, so it must be true! Mind you there's plenty of the usual caveats in there (iow we aint got a clue) such as the possibility of "short lived cooler, unsettled spells" and "parts of the country could see the odd air frost". My waters tell me we could get one more v.warm settled spell before Autumn proper arrives partucularly in the south as usual.

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Omg the summer of delights returns very soon with a September heatwave!
Starting the month as if flicking a switch.
Lovely ensembles, warm & dry for the foreseeable.

This morning sees ECM and GFS Op giving settled, warm conditions throughout the run. The GFS mean from the ENS collection is interesting- clicking through the days, the mean 2m max is in the 20s C in CS England everyday from 1st to 14th.

This has been helped by for example there being no days of below average temperatures generally over England & Wales as far ahead as the 6th and 7th, with only 2 days on the cool side (P11 and 14) by 8th, 3 by 9th and 10th (P12 particularly cold on 10th) and still only 3 as far ahead as 13th.

There are still some high temps forecast, and this is interestingly similar to yesterday morning's run, before the bottom fell out on the 06z.

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564 dam line coming into the south again for the weekend, as far as the Fax charts are concerned.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/fax/PPVL89.jpg?cb=99

 

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564 dam line coming into the south again for the weekend, as far as the Fax charts are concerned.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/fax/PPVL89.jpg?cb=99

 

That's actually a downgrade on what it showed a couple of days ago. Previously, the fronts stayed further north and west and the 564 dam line was somewhere near the Scottish border. 

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EC46 update has a very blocked H1 Sep and a more zonal H2.

 

All along with the return of the nor'easter. Even though SST's around the SE coasts are at their warmest, I'd probably end up with several days of overcast skies and cool winds all rolling in from the North Sea here at this end of Kent.

Of course, that'll all be gone by October, replaced by raging south westerlies lasting for the next four months.

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All along with the return of the nor'easter. Even though SST's around the SE coasts are at their warmest, I'd probably end up with several days of overcast skies and cool winds all rolling in from the North Sea here at this end of Kent.

Of course, that'll all be gone by October, replaced by raging south westerlies lasting for the next four months.

On the Norfolk coast too. We have 17/18 degrees forecastdue to the NW wind. Was ever the way, I know, but like the beginning of the summer when everyone else seemed to be getting mid to high 20’s, we had 15s and 17s, and even worse FOG!

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Don't be disheartened by the GFS 6z- look at the ENS to see the Op is visibly low in the pack. In fact, many Ps continue the warm theme well into September. Take P7 (it's OK to cherry-pick; just don't swallow the stone )- for days 1-14 it goes from very warm until the 6th, when a transition to hot takes place in the south, peaking at 30°C on 8th. In fact, 11 of the Ps on 8th show temps reaching or exceeding 24C on the postage stamps- and these don't usually IMO pick out the highest temps, just the general broader scene.

From 8th to 14th, the nights look very like July 1983, with 7 consecutive      17°C + minima (6am temps). By 13th there are still 9 Ps with max above 24C.  Local mean max for first 14 days = 25.5°C and mean  min = 16.3. A brief lull on 15th, still above average, then this sets in:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/7_384_850tmp.png?cb=909

Heading for a further warm up.

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Don't be disheartened by the GFS 6z- look at the ENS to see the Op is visibly low in the pack. In fact, many Ps continue the warm theme well into September. Take P7 (it's OK to cherry-pick; just don't swallow the stone )- for days 1-14 it goes from very warm until the 6th, when a transition to hot takes place in the south, peaking at 30°C on 8th. In fact, 11 of the Ps on 8th show temps reaching or exceeding 2C on the postage stamps- and these don't usually IMO pick out the highest temps, just the general broader scene.

From 8th to 14th, the nights look very like July 1983, with 7 consecutive      17°C + minima (6am temps). By 13th there are still 9 Ps with max above 24C.  Local mean max for first 14 days = 25.5°C and mean  min = 16.3. A brief lull on 15th, still above average, then this sets in:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/7_384_850tmp.png?cb=909

Heading for a further warm up.

Looks like a very warm September is in order.

 

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The interesting thing is the contrast with July. Under blocked conditions almost any wind direction in July brings warm weather, except a Northerly. Even if the East coast is cool and cloudy under an Easterly the West is hot.

In September the wind direction matters more. We need something in the Southerly half of the wind rose, or dead calm.

Hence the scatter in temps despite uniformly blocked and dry ensembles.

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In fact the GFS12z is a case in point. There are some charts for next week that are uncannily like those in June, but with maxes of 21C rather than close to 30. With similar 850s and clear skies (see next Wednesday and Thursday).

In June those charts were giving chilly low cloud to the East but 28C+ in places like Blackpool.

The same charts in January giving sub-zero maxes and snow flurries, of course.

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I would expect that with higher sea temperatures now that low cloud would be less of an issue for eastern areas than it was in June.

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The forecast is definitely looking much cloudier than June, at least in these parts.