GFS Ens offering very summery outlook in several runs this morning.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=908
P8 (albeit just one run, there is some clustering well above the 10C 850 line) offers these 6pm temps. for CS England from 1st to 13th:
21 25 24 24 26 27 27 30! 28 29 28 27 26 giving a 13 day average max of about 26.3C.
6am temps are even more stunning:
14 14 13 15 15 18 19 17 19 18 19 19 18 average about 16.7. A local mean temp of over 21C approaching mid month. I think 1999 had a sparkling start to September of this sort of scale.
P18 and P6 do a similar job but both cool down after 12th. P6 has 30C on 11th and 12th Sep with several 29s preceding.
The caveat with the ensembles is the increasing spread with time, so cool runs increase too, but even by 10th there are only 5 below average runs over England & Wales, with 13 above average and 9 24C + maxes, and by 12th, the cool Ps are down to 4 and the 24+ s up to 10.
Let's hope the signal is maintained in future runs.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.