Looks like the meteorological autumn will start with a good deal of dry and warm weather. Perhaps turning more changeable during the middle third of September but that's a long way off. 

The Europe and Azores and UK France Spain Eastern North Atlantic  NE Europe High Pressure set’s up with NNW Norway closer to Low Pressure.  

UK and Europe this September GFS and UKMO have Low Pressure out over the NW and Far North Atlantic and West to North Norwegian Sea Arctic Sea, Cold weather over Greenland, but around it and at it’s coastal districts much less cold including fairly mild over Iceland.  

Some cold weather in the NW N Norwegian Sea and the NE Canada area as well is expected but dominated by large areas of deep Low Pressure meandering Jetstream flow- that goes through SW SE Greenland North Atlantic Iceland and Svalbard.  Very warm dry and sunny weather for the UK from Saturday 1st September and Sunday 2nd to at least Wednesday the 5th.

Then further NE to SE over NW Atlantic NE Canada SW to NE moving North Atlantic to Arctic and SW to NE Norwegian Sea et all Steering Jetstream flow Low Pressure in following weekend more dry very warm and sunny UK Eastern N Atlantic West NW Europe Azores Bartlett Central NW Europe High in the second week of September as well.

A thundery Low could develop on Thursday and Friday September 6th and 7th with very humid wet and warm occlusion and some heavy thunderstorms quite a possibility briefly cooler then very warm over UK NW France et all.

In the warm periods temperatures should range from day and night: 29-31 to minimum’s of 15-17 degrees C. with 850 hPa’s ranging from 14 to 17 degrees C. UKMO 72-96-120 looks very good but at T144 North Atlantic Low gets closer (Monday 3rd September) but the Bartlett Azores High will again return again from the SW.

Hmm, quite a good setup.

😆😎💤😀⛈😉.

The ens looks similar to what we saw all through May, June and July. The flat mean line and sparse rain spikes that say high pressure.

Hopefully August will turn out to be the aberration in the legendary 2018/19 extreme drought.

Yeah right Tim I believe that is completely true, the heavy August rains, Very dry sunny Summer apart from August with more very warm and often hot and sunny weather in the first half of September 2018 will be great- with the great return of green healthy Park and Country grasslands and forests.

Even the Ens for Liverpool, Belfast & Glasgow look mostly dry within the hi-res period. Whilst nice, it's a pity August seems favourite to be the most unsettled month in the May-September period

Hopefully August will turn out to be the aberration in the legendary 2018/19 extreme drought.

I don't believe there'll be one 18/19 drought, rather two separate ones across the summers, but punctuated by a lot of PPN during the forthcoming winter (although little of that PPN will fall as rain). You heard it here first.

Well the ECMWF Model keeps the UK in control of the Azores High... That was my expectation as the UKMO t144, evolution would lead to the same.  NE USA corner North and NE Canada to SW and SE Greenland far N Atlantic Iceland Arctic and W as well as NW and North of Norwegian Sea and large part of the Arctic cold pooling including over Svalbard, cold plunges 60-90 North etc etc, while Europe SE USA and Mid North Atlantic keep the sustained Bermuda and Azores Sceuro Bartlett High Pressure stationed in place one feed the other as Bombogenesis of Low Pressure from Alaska to North Canada with Mid USA also affected by the Low Pressure conveyor belt.  Good Strong drops in temperatures Northern Hem. 60-90 North is really good to see and the Long wave Short waves seem very much trained together in a very much Wavy NW to NE Pacific USA Canada and North Atlantic Jetstream Flows arcing and bending North with bombogenesis very much part of the progression of this Autumn Season.

Very warm and sunny weather we may not get as it could bring minimums of 12-15 and maxes of 21-26 degrees C in the UK based on current charts of ECMWF, GFS looks warmer than it though!.

Good Country Island Weather this weekend very warm, even on Monday the 3rd.  As the second September High comes next week by Tuesday 4th it is going to sit over the UK and North Sea ensuring radiative cooling at night and pleasant comfortable warmth in the daytime sunshine under calm light winds.

👍😉☀️☀️😀.

Even the Ens for Liverpool, Belfast & Glasgow look mostly dry within the hi-res period. Whilst nice, it's a pity August seems favourite to be the most unsettled month in the May-September period

 

 

I don't believe there'll be one 18/19 drought, rather two separate ones across the summers, but punctuated by a lot of PPN during the forthcoming winter (although little of that PPN will fall as rain). You heard it here first.

😀💦☀️😏.

Huh, but you have to consider revising that statement come middle of November as by then the first change to colder weather not could but would maybe develop (increased chance) as long as first half of September is very dry and very warm or just average temperatures or slightly above, with pleasantly cool nights innit.

Seeing Quiet High Pressure in early Autumn normally means conditions will be conductive to cold weather by Nov. 17-18th onwards, as the first cold wave might happen then as we may get a NW to Northerly flow with Low Pressure track from North Atlantic a move across the UK with cold air pushing in from the NW then Cold with High Pressure extending from the UK to SW Norway and Sweden and across West North Sea as well with east NE winds as that Low Pressure should be able to head across North NE France Holland and Belgium etc, with UK and Central to North Europe getting colder as the Azores and Scandy High could merge by then or by the first half of Week 3 November 2018 it may happen. I am willing to speculate like this if we continue seeing widely fluctuating type as we get dry High Pressure with some occasional or longer spells of wet and windy condition that progessively turn it colder from our West and NW- long fetch mild SW flow is what we don’t need as it encourages the South and Central UK to get high pressure from the Azores if that stops by mid November 2018 we can hope for it.  

Another 2008/09 esque situation is quite possible but this time it could also cover North and NW Atlantic Eastern NE USA maybe as well, we may get it 5 days before they get theirs innit.

The ens looks similar to what we saw all through May, June and July. The flat mean line and sparse rain spikes that say high pressure.

Hopefully August will turn out to be the aberration in the legendary 2018/19 extreme drought.

Extreme drought? where the heck have you been all summer?

Even the Ens for Liverpool, Belfast & Glasgow look mostly dry within the hi-res period. Whilst nice, it's a pity August seems favourite to be the most unsettled month in the May-September period

 

 

I don't believe there'll be one 18/19 drought, rather two separate ones across the summers, but punctuated by a lot of PPN during the forthcoming winter (although little of that PPN will fall as rain). You heard it here first.

Neck on the block there Saint. 

Quite amazing to see height anomalies stretching from Eastern seaboard to Siberia...only punctuated by the formation of a Biscay low....

Yep, classic early September (Old Wives Summer) stuff in the models at the moment.

Question is how long does it go on for?

One interesting feature on the ECM ENs today is the lack of any excess heat over the entire equatorial region right though the first part of September. 

 

 

Neck on the block there Saint. 

Reverse Phycology by Saint. 😁

Nothing 'reverse' about it. I'm willing it to happen. And it will.

 

Extreme drought? where the heck have you been all summer?

Somewhere that had 1mm of rain in June and 6mm in July. Ie not the south coast. This is the 1975 anyway. By September 2019 we will be on water rationing.

Yep, an remarkably warm start to September on the GFS this morning. I get a feeling this is going to be another year that leaves us with the "if only August and September had swapped places" feeling...

All I care about at the moment is my holiday in the Lakes between the 10th-14th. Have a feeling it will all be upside down again by then but still, nice to see we should get some decent weather again soon.

I’m predicting a very dry winter with at least one, maybe 2 beasts. But for all that, not actually particularly cold on average.

A worse April and May than 2018, but not massively wet, then an exceptionally dry and hot summer.

Do we get the long-awaited hot August next year? 

 

Do we get the long-awaited hot August next year? 

That [Next Year] of course, will be our last chance of the 2010s to get a decent August.

I don't have any official data at hand to be able to say how many decent Augusts there has been during this decade, but I wouldn't have thought that there were all that many which means that one has to be long overdue.