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SJV
25 July 2018 17:12:17


 


But it is looking very wet for a few days? That's a fact!


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


For goodness sake Beast get a grip. These ridiculously provocative and vague statements of yours are helping no-one in this thread  


Very wet? Where? There's no location in your statement, no chart. Nothing, and then you wonder why people question your posts 


I'm happy enough to discuss the more changeable weekend ahead of us but the discussion has to start from a shared understanding of what the models are showing 

Shropshire
25 July 2018 17:12:35


 


But it is looking very wet for a few days? That's a fact!


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes some very high rainfall totals for Western and Central areas for 3-4 days, this is why I hate southerly plumes - two hot days then unsettled weather and  16-18C 


Going further forward I'd have my doubts about settled weather returning. 


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Brian Gaze
25 July 2018 17:13:05


 


This run shows the high getting sucked too far west allowing cooler air in from the north. They never come off in winter so I'll ignore it :)


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


If it started cooling off around the Glorious Twelfth I won't be too worried. It would still go down as one of the greatest summers of all time. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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SJV
25 July 2018 17:13:54


Astonishing GFS 12z rolling out. It's almost like a 1000 mile patch of autumn is dropped into the north Atlantic to give us a breather and then the summer resumes. Back to back temperature records on successive Fridays?   


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Astonishing is right  Several days of very warm upper air temps on the back of a week long heatwave for the south. Phenomenal output this evening! 



Going further forward I'd have my doubts about settled weather returning. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


You said this a week or so ago? Why are you so bullish about this when all of the extended output/ forecasts/ background signal show otherwise? (genuinely interested in your reasoning - like I am in your Beastly buddies negative spin)


Is it simply hoping to be right in the face of adversity when this pattern does eventually break? Good luck - they say monkeys hitting a keyboard at random will eventually type up texts like Shakespeare, purely by chance 

Weathermac
25 July 2018 17:35:53


 


Yes some very high rainfall totals for Western and Central areas for 3-4 days, this is why I hate southerly plumes - two hot days then unsettled weather and  16-18C 


Going further forward I'd have my doubts about settled weather returning. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Why dont you 2 go and get married then you can swap fake news with each other all day long whilst the rest of us see and comment on what the models are actually showing.

David M Porter
25 July 2018 17:37:16


 


Yes some very high rainfall totals for Western and Central areas for 3-4 days, this is why I hate southerly plumes - two hot days then unsettled weather and  16-18C 


Going further forward I'd have my doubts about settled weather returning. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


May I remind you Ian that you were similarly dismissive of the late Feb/early March "Beast from the East"?


From what I have read, no forecaster is predicting particularly high rainfall totals anywhere except possibly in some of the storms forecast for Friday. Over the weekend and early next week, no chart that I have looked at suggests particularly wet weather anywhere, so you must be looking at different models to everyone else.


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SJV
25 July 2018 17:45:13

Back to actual model watching and, I realise I'm cherry-picking here, but only to highlight the alarming heat potential in the output at the moment. Here's pert 10 for example...



KevBrads1
25 July 2018 17:48:05

Look how anticyclonic that mean chart is at 240hrs.



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Brian Gaze
25 July 2018 18:14:10

Astonishing GEFS 12z today. Static snapshot below so it doesn't refresh. Heat and an almost complete lack of ppt spikes after July 31st.


(Ensemble forecasts here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx)



 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gavin D
25 July 2018 18:45:15

Arpege going for 34c tomorrow as the high


2mtemp_027.thumb.jpg.a70d7e531d8f16e256c6ef4b8a2d4072.jpg


And 32c on Friday


2mtemp_051.thumb.jpg.6d4adb5ffad5f0a0e0e5de6df27574e0.jpg


And by Saturday a distinctly fresher feel across the country


2mtemp_078.thumb.jpg.8ab1681a70555b0483c03860d9395dc8.jpg


SJV
25 July 2018 18:46:09


Astonishing GEFS 12z today. Static snapshot below so it doesn't refresh. Heat and an almost complete lack of ppt spikes after July 31st.


(Ensemble forecasts here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx)


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


That really is incredible for the start of August! 


Ties in perfectly with Kevin's mean chart above your post. As anticyclonic as it gets.

LeedsLad123
25 July 2018 18:52:41
Latest Arpege run shows 24C on Saturday, 26C on Sunday, so even the weekend could still be warm or very warm, with any rain mostly fizzling out as it approaches England.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Rob K
25 July 2018 19:19:41
iPhone weather app now going for 36c max 21c min for tomorrow.

I do wonder about the longevity of any settled weather in August if we do get an extreme plume, it could end up being the classic breakdown as signalled by the GFS op run with return to below average temps. But there are plenty of options on offer.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
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Arcus
25 July 2018 19:24:46
All these wobbles in forecast maxes for Friday from the models are to be expected, and I would not take much notice in them. The key will be how much convection initiates tomorrow evening into Friday morning - the overhang of cloud from any storms that do form will knock out any 38c+ probabilities. Vis Sat watch.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
richardabdn
25 July 2018 19:58:07


 


May I remind you Ian that you were similarly dismissive of the late Feb/early March "Beast from the East"?


From what I have read, no forecaster is predicting particularly high rainfall totals anywhere except possibly in some of the storms forecast for Friday. Over the weekend and early next week, no chart that I have looked at suggests particularly wet weather anywhere, so you must be looking at different models to everyone else.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


The models I am looking at show horrendous amounts of rain in places. Over 40mm in parts of NE Scotland and NE England up to midnight on Sunday. 76mm around Middlesbrough:


https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/2018/07/25/basis12/ukuk/rsum/18073000_2512.gif 


Needless to say if this comes off then this summer will be well on its way to becoming one of two distinct halves. The first amongst the best on record and the second amongst the worst 


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xioni2
25 July 2018 20:03:04

EC ens has reduced the intensity of the heat for the end of next week, but it keeps prolonging the anticyclonic conditions all the way to mid-Aug.


 

sunnyramsgate
25 July 2018 20:53:01
So less heat but still dry and warm/hot??
SJV
25 July 2018 21:15:10

So less heat but still dry and warm/hot??

Originally Posted by: sunnyramsgate 


Settled conditions look like prevailing after a fresher and changeable weekend/ start of next week. ECM warm to very warm with signs of hotter weather beyond day 10. GFS on the other hand becoming hot from midweek.


What they both agree on is a dry outlook.

Rob K
25 July 2018 21:26:29


 


The models I am looking at show horrendous amounts of rain in places. Over 40mm in parts of NE Scotland and NE England up to midnight on Sunday. 76mm around Middlesbrough:


https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/2018/07/25/basis12/ukuk/rsum/18073000_2512.gif 


Needless to say if this comes off then this summer will be well on its way to becoming one of two distinct halves. The first amongst the best on record and the second amongst the worst 


Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Since when did one wet weekend make a poor summer, or even a poor half of a summer? All the models show HP returning with a vengeance after the brief wetter spell. Even the best summers of the past had some rain. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
SJV
25 July 2018 22:01:43

GFS 18z once again pulls the hottest uppers back westwards in line with ECM and UKMO. Consequently, 35C is predicted for Norfolk on Friday...


doctormog
25 July 2018 22:13:17


 


Since when did one wet weekend make a poor summer, or even a poor half of a summer? All the models show HP returning with a vengeance after the brief wetter spell. Even the best summers of the past had some rain. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


If many of the models are correct the sheer quantity of the rain shown on Fri/Sat would actually mean the month as a whole came in as wetter than average here. 


LeedsLad123
25 July 2018 22:29:47
GFS 18z not as good, goes the ECM route and takes longer to settle down again and as a consequence it looks rather average for much of next week. 21-23C for most of England rather than the 26-31C before.

It's such a big change though that there's no reason why it can't go the other way again. We couldn't even get Friday sorted out at close range never mind next week.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
superteacher
25 July 2018 22:38:02

GFS 18z not as good, goes the ECM route and takes longer to settle down again and as a consequence it looks rather average for much of next week. 21-23C for most of England rather than the 26-31C before.

It's such a big change though that there's no reason why it can't go the other way again. We couldn't even get Friday sorted out at close range never mind next week.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


It’s utterly ludicrous how an op run can change so drastically in 6 hours. Clearly this run will be bottom of the ensemble pack.

LeedsLad123
25 July 2018 22:40:37


 


It’s utterly ludicrous how an op run can change so drastically in 6 hours. Clearly this run will be bottom of the ensemble pack.


Originally Posted by: superteacher 


Yes, I was thinking that - a ridiculously big change in 6 hours. Hopefully an outlier.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
xioni2
25 July 2018 22:50:17


Yes, I was thinking that - a ridiculously big change in 6 hours. Hopefully an outlier.


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Nah, they are almost designed to have these swings. 

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