The ECM would be very nice. Ideally we can squeeze out a 35C this week and then settle into an August of absolute drought, long sunshine hours and late 20s-30C temperatures.

That would be fine as I like to see other areas to join in and see their lakes water levels dropping further to reveal houses which they show a lot in 1989 and 1990 summers.  Either August get a very hot one or June type set-up, either way let take this and avoid seeing boring rain showers/cold and wet days this summer full time.  Plus Uk cannot go cold and wet since all countries around us are baking hot at the moment and this will eventually cool down in Autumn.  Sea temps now 19-21C in North sea, SW UK and off S Ireland so that ensure HP easily settled over us.

https://www.seatemperature.org/

00z op and control went crazy hot again for the foreseeable future.
On the subject of sea temps, they were talking on the radio this morning we are breaking records, 22-23 quite widely through the English Channel, that’s 3-4 degrees above normal. Chichester harbour recorded 25 yesterday. The Baltic Sea is even more unusual with temps 5-6 above normal.
This can only serve to build the heat into next month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNS00_0_35.png 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNS00_0_35.png 

Tgis is probably the difference between inshore / tidal waters and open sea temperatures. I can well imagine Chichester harbour, which is quite shallow, getting to 25C.

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4th in accuracy after ECM, UKMO and GFS.

Funny how we all look at GFS because it provides so much more free data and runs 4 times a day.

GEM's verification stats tend to be very similar to the GFS. For July NH SLP it's ahead in the 1 to 5 day range (3rd behind ECM and UKMO), but as suspected it tends to fall behind GFS in the 6 to 10 day range.

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One thing also worth keeping an eye on is the overnight minimum temps the current July record is 23.3c in  St James's Park, London set way back in 1948

That could be broken over the few nights

Arpege has updated now and lost the extreme temperatures for Friday. Now 34 max tomorrow and 33 Friday with the hot air pushed away more rapidly. Also looks a lot drier for the southeast on Fri now but shows some storms in central southern parts tomorrow.

 

Meanwhile GFS has upped the heat a bit, giving 34C on Friday.

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GFS 06z giving us an autumnal weekend.

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What a difference 24 hours makes.

 

Yesterday's 6Z chart for 12Z Saturday:

 

And today's:

 

 

Wet for just about everyone, where yesterday there was nothing. Big change in a short time.

 

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There is no way that GFS will be correct with how it deepens that low. Totally over the top.

Well comparing op runs on the 6z doesn't mean a lot without ensemble backing.

Rain is much needed but I am concerned that we will largely miss out again before another settled pattern emerges

There is no way that GFS will be correct with how it deepens that low. Totally over the top.

GEM does it too. 

And UKMO brings the low across the UK too, although not to quite the same extent.

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Been here before watch the heat build after the weekend

Been here before watch the heat build after the weekend

Yes it certainly looks like following the same pattern, just a shame if the drought records get spoilt by a badly forecast low incursion. 

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GEM does it too. 

And UKMO brings the low across the UK too, although not to quite the same extent.

ECM also not as aggressive. I think the way the low behaves will depend on what happens on Friday when the low engages the very hot air.

Plume incoming, could be a hot run.

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What a difference 24 hours makes.

Pretty small difference actually in terms of large scale pattern 

But big difference obviously for local details, which only shows how easy to change back.

Arpege has updated now and lost the extreme temperatures for Friday. Now 34 max tomorrow and 33 Friday with the hot air pushed away more rapidly. Also looks a lot drier for the southeast on Fri now but shows some storms in central southern parts tomorrow.

 

Meanwhile GFS has upped the heat a bit, giving 34C on Friday.

That right as the 15-16C uppers line take all day Friday so there enough time for real heat to achieved before the cooler air arrive early on Saturday morning.

That's a hell of a hot blob of air to our south, if it can just get a bit of oomph to head north! Even this chart would give low 30s to much of the south.

 

 

 

On this run even the Yorkshire Dales will hit 26C+ on the 5th, not quite what I want for a full day of exertion!

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Tgis is probably the difference between inshore / tidal waters and open sea temperatures. I can well imagine Chichester harbour, which is quite shallow, getting to 25C.

Exactly, inshore waters in the Solent region getting into the low twenties during the summer months are surprisingly not that uncommon. I've never seen them as high as 25C but 21/22C yes.

It's currently 21.4C @ Bramble Bank.

Here is a link to Bramblemet sea temps - through here there are links to a few other stations in the Solent region.

 

http://www.bramblemet.co.uk/(S(psesho3d0r2dlf55cg352n55))/default.aspx