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Yes some very high rainfall totals for Western and Central areas for 3-4 days, this is why I hate southerly plumes - two hot days then unsettled weather and 16-18C Going further forward I'd have my doubts about settled weather returning.
Yes some very high rainfall totals for Western and Central areas for 3-4 days, this is why I hate southerly plumes - two hot days then unsettled weather and 16-18C
Going further forward I'd have my doubts about settled weather returning.
May I remind you Ian that you were similarly dismissive of the late Feb/early March "Beast from the East"?
From what I have read, no forecaster is predicting particularly high rainfall totals anywhere except possibly in some of the storms forecast for Friday. Over the weekend and early next week, no chart that I have looked at suggests particularly wet weather anywhere, so you must be looking at different models to everyone else.
Back to actual model watching and, I realise I'm cherry-picking here, but only to highlight the alarming heat potential in the output at the moment. Here's pert 10 for example...
Look how anticyclonic that mean chart is at 240hrs.
Astonishing GEFS 12z today. Static snapshot below so it doesn't refresh. Heat and an almost complete lack of ppt spikes after July 31st.
(Ensemble forecasts here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx)
Arpege going for 34c tomorrow as the high
And 32c on Friday
And by Saturday a distinctly fresher feel across the country
Astonishing GEFS 12z today. Static snapshot below so it doesn't refresh. Heat and an almost complete lack of ppt spikes after July 31st.(Ensemble forecasts here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx)
That really is incredible for the start of August!
Ties in perfectly with Kevin's mean chart above your post. As anticyclonic as it gets.
May I remind you Ian that you were similarly dismissive of the late Feb/early March "Beast from the East"?From what I have read, no forecaster is predicting particularly high rainfall totals anywhere except possibly in some of the storms forecast for Friday. Over the weekend and early next week, no chart that I have looked at suggests particularly wet weather anywhere, so you must be looking at different models to everyone else.
The models I am looking at show horrendous amounts of rain in places. Over 40mm in parts of NE Scotland and NE England up to midnight on Sunday. 76mm around Middlesbrough:
https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/2018/07/25/basis12/ukuk/rsum/18073000_2512.gif
Needless to say if this comes off then this summer will be well on its way to becoming one of two distinct halves. The first amongst the best on record and the second amongst the worst
EC ens has reduced the intensity of the heat for the end of next week, but it keeps prolonging the anticyclonic conditions all the way to mid-Aug.
So less heat but still dry and warm/hot??
Settled conditions look like prevailing after a fresher and changeable weekend/ start of next week. ECM warm to very warm with signs of hotter weather beyond day 10. GFS on the other hand becoming hot from midweek.
What they both agree on is a dry outlook.
The models I am looking at show horrendous amounts of rain in places. Over 40mm in parts of NE Scotland and NE England up to midnight on Sunday. 76mm around Middlesbrough:https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/2018/07/25/basis12/ukuk/rsum/18073000_2512.gif Needless to say if this comes off then this summer will be well on its way to becoming one of two distinct halves. The first amongst the best on record and the second amongst the worst
Since when did one wet weekend make a poor summer, or even a poor half of a summer? All the models show HP returning with a vengeance after the brief wetter spell. Even the best summers of the past had some rain.
GFS 18z once again pulls the hottest uppers back westwards in line with ECM and UKMO. Consequently, 35C is predicted for Norfolk on Friday...
If many of the models are correct the sheer quantity of the rain shown on Fri/Sat would actually mean the month as a whole came in as wetter than average here.
GFS 18z not as good, goes the ECM route and takes longer to settle down again and as a consequence it looks rather average for much of next week. 21-23C for most of England rather than the 26-31C before. It's such a big change though that there's no reason why it can't go the other way again. We couldn't even get Friday sorted out at close range never mind next week.
It’s utterly ludicrous how an op run can change so drastically in 6 hours. Clearly this run will be bottom of the ensemble pack.
Yes, I was thinking that - a ridiculously big change in 6 hours. Hopefully an outlier.
Nah, they are almost designed to have these swings.