It's a similar evolution overall though. Just that the ridging isn't as strong.

Yes the heat merely looking through the 'peephole' rather than charging through the door on this run. Still very pleasant countrywide with temperatures widely in the mid 20s and high 20s further SE.

edit: heat nudging in by the 4th August again. Not as keen as previous 06z's but still topping 30C quite widely one would think.

Yes it stays very settled and the heat steadily builds from mid 20s up to high 20s and then back into the 30s in the south. It does almost seem as though all roads leads to warmth at the moment, even if record-breaking stuff seems to be looking less likely.

Actually somewhat less settled with a shallow low over the UK and quite a bit of rain about towards the end of the run.

Looks like some kind of programming error, compared to the same chart, same run, same time on Wetterzentrale.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPME06_66_10.png

Seems to be an element of reading the tea leaves with the 6z update, although I've not had time to look through the individual run.

Pretty extraordinary day 10 mean from ECM .  15c 850s touching the south coast high pressure slap bang over UK , recipe for serious heat.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

Here's a static snapshot from the Arpege 00z. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata /arpege.aspx?run=na&charthour=84&chartname=uk2mtmpsohd&chartregion=uk-s&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

That 36C is right over me :(

Just had the fire brigade putting out a hedge fire 200m away - a bit nervous about that!

That map says thunderstorms in the Midlands to me. Kaboom!

Whilst the big red maxes are shown over East Anglia - Norwich, Lakenheath, Mildenhall, it might also be a good day for Brogdale.

Night time very warm around 22-24C  so that would set a new record high minimum for my data which stood at 22C and today here is 32.8C so by Thursday and Friday I should easily see above 36C.  

Is that a body thermometer? 

Met office now up to 36c/96F on Friday in the SE corner

Edging closer to the all-time record of 38.5C...

So either Heathrow or Gravesend would take the prize this time.  I notice the 15-16C uppers for Friday had been extended to full Friday compare to quick spike over night Thursday to Friday on yesterday ensembles.

That 36C is practically over my house

Heathrow very unlikely, the heat is likely to be east of London. Highest Met Office forecast I can see for Friday is 35C for Marham in Norfolk.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u127sby66#?date=2018-07-27

Yep: Lakenheath, Mildenhall, Brogdale, Shoeburyness, possibly Gravesend or Cambridge if the heat shifts a bit West. Possibly even Manston if the flow is SWerly.

You can keep your 36C it's 20C on that chart for me. That's more like it

GFS is really spinning up this low pressure now. Compared to yesterday's 12Z when it was barely even a feature.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_153_mslp500.png?cb=269

Temperatures for Monday are a good 5C lower than on yesterday's 12Z run for the same time.

Well spotted Rob.  Trends.

Or rather the typical GFS blowing up lows scenario. UKMO doesn’t agree.

GEM joins the 36C club for Friday.