Significant difference between the GFS and UKMO at relatively short range now. Who will be right? The Met Office have been bullish with their predictions of 36C in the far east of the UK on Friday. GFS having none of it.

I'd like to put the differences down to the GFS's overly progressive tendencies but it's not always the case.

GEM then goes to the opposite extreme. This would be a shock to the system... all the talk of furnace heat and we end up in the teens! Looks way off base to me.

I’ve seen these stand offs come down to T36 before. I suspect this will too. Absolutely no point even looking at the weekend!

Best to ignore it for now as they are all wrong and look from outside and keep in mind of what they shown correctly before by seeing very hot to Friday then cooler weekend and get hot again next week.  Like what GFS is desperate to reset back to default pattern since the run of settled dry weather started and never happen yet.

GFS cranking out the furnace heat again... it's always at T240+ though

It still ends up hot and settled though the signal must be very strong for that around the 3rd August. 

Still the same to me as it will start hotting up after the weekend and get very hot from end of the week to the following weekend.   Likely a recap of August 2003 first 2 weeks hot spell before it slowly start cooling down eventually.

Seems that with the Atlantic so quiet there's only one direction that mass of heat can go later next week.

GFS again revisiting this idea with low to mid 30's widely from the 4th August.

ps, I think the record would go on this GFS run. It's a slow and steady build of heat from midweek which would add a good 3C on to forecasted temperatures (36C on this run) so... 39C achieveable?

The models are more progressive with the Atlantic Low at days 6 amd 7 and that could change the pattern later on, certainly an end to the drought for Western and Central areas. 

There doesn't seem to be any indication from the models at the moment of a prolonged unsettled spell taking hold any time soon, though. What seems to be indicated is that western and northern areas could receive a gkancing blow from the LP to the west wearly next week, but the trend after that in the GFS 12z seems to point to a gradual return of HP.

I think I'll wait and see what ECM shows this evening before I buy into the GFS solution.

Which models in the reliable timeframes are you referring to ian ??

GEFS look more unsettled and cooler than they were, rain showing up even for the SE

Perhaps John Hammond prediction of an August washout was right

Hope so! We could do with a bit of rain here now, even if its just to freshen things up before the next fine spell (like it has done in summer 1989). 

GFS 12z takes it a little more eastwards (and spins it up a little more) than other models, then lifts it northwards as per other models with high pressure ridging in behind settling the weather back down and opening the door for the heat to return 

I assume you're referring to the latest GFS? The pattern later on has been remarkably consistent actually with two choices on the menu - either a resurgence of heat from the south in time for the first weekend in August, or a less hot but still settled pattern with high pressure in charge. Neither, as I'm sure you know, are unsettled outlooks.

In terms of drought-ending conditions, the east and south has the prospect of severe thunderstorms - unreliable in terms of severity and extensiveness. The west has frontal systems trying to progress eastwards - unreliable in terms of a) how far east they make it and b) how active they will be anyway. Today's front for example was a pretty weak affair.

We need a lot more in the way of sustained rainfall to end the drought and there's nothing in the output to suggest any widespread and significant rainfall is on the way 

Since when should the gfs ensembles be taken as gospel.Known them to be utterly useless time after time in the past.Gfs always way too progressive when low pressure comes up against blocking highs to the East.

Funny enough, you said something a bit similiar last Tuesday, The above quote was from last Tuesday. 

I'd not seen that comment from Shropshire. There I go posting a sensible response to his other comment and then he comes out with tripe like that  

 edit: ah that actual comment quoted was from last week. Nice one Kevin  Shows you can get egg on your face by trusting one operational run 

Geoff you are miserable guts at times no offence of coarse.

You know thats crap

How can anyone know that when August doesn't even start until a week tomorrow?

With all due respect, this is the kind of nonsensical throwing in of the towel that we see on these threads all too often in the winter.

GFS ens for Aug looks to me very blocked, very warm and very dry. 

You made me have a look through the GEFS to compare thoughts. Nothing concerning at all in there - the usual odd rogue run of course. The mean very representative of the general picture going forward.

t+96, perhaps some welcome rain for western areas later in the weekend, otherwise drier and fresher for many.

t+180 midweek looks increasingly warm and settled with a strong ridge of high pressure.

t+240 potential for a heat reload from the south with high pressure firmly in charge and a quiet Atlantic.

Who knows what'll happen for the rest of the month, but one thing is for sure there isn't a shred of evidence to back up John 'clickbait' Hammond's washout August prediction. As long as the Scandi block holds and the Atlantic stays quiet there will be little change in the output - a thought very much reflected in the latest long-ranger from Exeter.

it sure does look like a wash out

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0

some extreme Furnace members in the mix

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0