The Weather Outlook

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White Meadows
23 July 2018 21:37:34

 

Let me try again...

In any single run there are big variations from day to day - ups and downs. If each perturbation ends up with a completely different evolution from the others in the timing of ridges and troughs, then the mean of all perturbations will be fairly flat (even if generally it might be lower or higher than the seasonal norm).

If on the other hand most of the perturbations end up with, say, a rising trend in week one, then a dip, then another rise in week 2, then the mean line will also vary up and down and be less flat.

This evening’s ENS mean line wiggles a lot. That means that most, albeit not all, perts are following the same general pattern over the 15 days rather than averaging each other out. Earlier this week we had a lot of very flat ensemble means which give the impression of stable weather when in fact they hide huge variability.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Don’t give up the day job old boy.

Rob K
23 July 2018 21:58:19

Don’t give up the day job old boy.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It’s pretty clear what Tim means. Lots of random scatter means the average will be quite flat. If the individual runs start moving in sync with each other then the average will start to reflect that movement. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Polar Low
23 July 2018 22:09:28

Thundery showers moving up from the south Friday evening our first big chance of rain in the south and s/e in a while

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Rob K
23 July 2018 22:11:17

Thundery showers moving up from the south Friday evening our first big chance of rain in the south and s/e in a while

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Exactly the evening I don’t want it. Hopefully usual GFS phantom convective nonsense. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

moomin75
23 July 2018 22:12:33

 

Exactly the evening I don’t want it. Hopefully usual GFS phantom convective nonsense. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

This is a shock. Massive change and not remotely in line with forecasts.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Polar Low
23 July 2018 22:14:11

It was flagged earlier this evening by Ben was also mentioned late last night  N24

This is a shock. Massive change and not remotely in line with forecasts.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Weathermac
23 July 2018 22:16:34

This is a shock. Massive change and not remotely in line with forecasts.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The forecast ive just watched on the beeb suggests possible thundery showers or rain at the end of this week although uncertain how far se it will get.

White Meadows
23 July 2018 22:16:57

This is a shock. Massive change and not remotely in line with forecasts.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

a whole 2mm over my town ain’t gonna sort out the 3ft deep cracks in the ground.

Polar Low
23 July 2018 22:17:10

I dont have 12z fax but shows up nicely on 0z

 

SJV
23 July 2018 22:32:12

I dont have 12z fax but shows up nicely on 0z

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

The most recent MetO forecast video for the week mentioned thunderstorm risk on Friday. Their precipitation profile strongly matches the GFS 18z actually with the frontal rain out to the west and scattered thunderstorms down the eastern side of the UK.

Not at all surprising and certainly not a change in the forecast/output.

White Meadows
24 July 2018 05:26:44
Well I’d say 18z and 00z were upgrades against the 12z Gfs

00z goes bananas at the end once again with insane heat buildup throughout. By 2nd week of August the whole of Western Europe resembles the Sahara Desert.

Rob K
24 July 2018 09:07:32

ECM is looking toasty again this morning with 17C 850s into the south at day 10. It is at the upper end of the ensemble though. https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro/temperature

Even so, the mean max in Reading is still 25C+ by Aug 7.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

briggsy6
24 July 2018 09:19:15

Those charts tie in nicely with Carole Kirkwood's forecast this morning of the heat peaking on Thursday (34c possible),  followed by a thundery breakdown on Friday leading into a cooler weekend for all. Could be another heat up on the cards next week though!

Location: Uxbridge
Rob K
24 July 2018 09:25:36

Well I’d say 18z and 00z were upgrades against the 12z Gfs

00z goes bananas at the end once again with insane heat buildup throughout. By 2nd week of August the whole of Western Europe resembles the Sahara Desert.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

 

00Z GFS seems to have a bit more of a northerly drift with HP to the west so not all that hot for the UK, but then heat building in again at the end. No doubt all will be different on the 06Z...

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 July 2018 09:27:31

Those charts tie in nicely with Carole Kirkwood's forecast this morning of the heat peaking on Thursday (34c possible),  followed by a thundery breakdown on Friday leading into a cooler weekend for all. Could be another heat up on the cards next week though!

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

Friday seems to be the day for rain this month!

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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briggsy6
24 July 2018 09:35:04

I;m taking it with a large pinch of salt atm since last Friday's rain failed to materialise here.

Location: Uxbridge
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 July 2018 09:40:33

I;m taking it with a large pinch of salt atm since last Friday's rain failed to materialise here.

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

It failed to materialise here the Friday before and last Friday only dampened the dust. I like the prospect of thunder storms though so I’m keeping my fingers crossed for third time lucky!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

Rob K
24 July 2018 09:41:35

It failed to materialise here the Friday before and last Friday only dampened the dust. I like the prospect of thunder storms though so I’m keeping my fingers crossed for third time lucky!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I would be normally but we are going to an open-air film showing on Friday night. I don't mind seeing a distant light show though!

 

Edit: 6Z GFS keeps the storms further east, mainly Kent and E Anglia.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
24 July 2018 10:03:46

Friday seems to be the day for rain this month!

Originally Posted by: Caz 

SYNOP stations reporting zero rainfall so far this month:

Waddington, High Wycombe, Marham, Heathrow, St Catherine’s Point, Shoreham

Heathrow has only recorded 0.4mm since the start of June and Shoreham 0.6mm. There's also one station near Bury st Edmunds that last had rain on June 5th.

I wonder if this Friday ends it.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Sinky1970
24 July 2018 10:10:28

The Met Office have issued a thunderstorm warning for eastern and northern england for Friday, can't quite understand why the West Mids is included with that, happens time after time, irrelevent anyway as it's 4 days away.

Brian Gaze
24 July 2018 10:13:47

What's going on here? 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Rob K
24 July 2018 10:14:04

Those charts tie in nicely with Carole Kirkwood's forecast this morning of the heat peaking on Thursday (34c possible),  followed by a thundery breakdown on Friday leading into a cooler weekend for all. Could be another heat up on the cards next week though!

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

6Z GFS doesn't even have that much of a cooldown for the SE - still 28C on Sat and 29C on Sunday. Cooler further west.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
24 July 2018 10:17:50

Dewpoint of 26C on Friday night? 

 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Arcus
24 July 2018 10:29:31

GFS 6z Op still wants to develop those storms on Thursday, not as interested in Friday's MetO warning area/timeframe apart from in the SE.

 

 

 

Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Rob K
24 July 2018 10:31:15
Quite a different run into next week with fresher Atlantic air for all. Still a ridge over the UK but looking more like low to mid 20s even in the south which might even feel a bit chilly compared to recent days. Don't give up on us now, heatwave!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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