More and more model runs are following a broad sequence of events that goes like this:

1. Thu-Fri trough doesn't get beyond Ireland and then serves to throw some new ridging toward the UK next weekend.

2. The next trough arriving in the Atlantic interacts with a disturbance in the plume over the Netherlands (or thereabouts), allowing it to lift out to the  north or northwest at some point between Sun 29th July and Wed 1st August (ECM 12z and probably UKMO 12z the soonest).

3. High pressure builds into the void left by the departing heat low, and serves to draw hot air across the UK from the near continent. At this point it may have been toned down a bit due to the departing disturbance taking some of the hot airmass with it, but unfortunately there are more than enough runs suggesting little or no modification to keep me nervous.

Don't see what's unfortunate about it. We can get boring nondescript weather any time. If there's a chance of getting records, whether hot or cold, then great!

Sorry, OTT but couldn’t help it!  

Easy of course for one of these troughs to disrupt just south of the UK with high pressure gradually building westwards and a mean E/NE flow developing in the first 10 days of Aug giving us plenty of sunshine and proper blue skies again (and without extreme heat)

Hopefully at some point within the next day or two, we will start to get a better idea of what is likely to happen from the start of next weekend going forwards. ECM 12z seems keen on the idea of a temporary interruption to the mostly settled weather just over a week from now with HP then moving back in from the Azores and possibly joining up with the Scandi High.

Met office going for 34c both Thursday and Friday in East Anglia. Definitely an upgrade of next week's heat this afternoon. 

Heat resurgent by 240 hours on ECM.

Yes, it's exciting and a decade ago I'd have been rooting for it, but having a 96 year old grandfather at risk has given me a personal reason to be concerned. It's a shame as I do otherwise enjoy seeing records fall, and can otherwise justify such enthusiasm by the fact that no matter how much we hope for or against an extreme weather event happening, it won't affect the chances, and that if it does come to pass, detesting it won't lessen it in any way. 

When it comes to this particular potential event, what strikes me is that there is an unusually high chance of the plume being both intense and staying across the UK more than just a day or two; with the Nino-like tropical forcing hitting its first peak in the first week of August, the Atlantic troughs will struggle to get close enough to force a quick breakdown of the likes we often see when intense plumes of heat are in play.

They could still manage it, GFS 12z style, but the 06z took a couple of days longer, and the 12z ECM looks ready on day 10 to bring a run of 3-4 days of hot to very hot conditions across England in particular;

ECM arrived at this point via precisely the sequence of events I described earlier, adding further weight to the idea. 

P14 has to take the prize though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=2&time=318&run=12&lid=P14&h=0&tr=6 

>20C 850s for the whole of the U.K. and Ireland plus the Shetland Is. That’s right, the Shetland Is.

And the 20C isotherm is over somewhere in Britain from Thursday 2nd to Monday 6th Aug, including an extended stay off the coast of Aberdeenshire.

now bring on the heat!

Yes, once again, it's bonkers chart time! There were some really excellent bonkers charts in the run up to the beasterlies early this year. It would be fun to save them all somewhere and at the end of the year (whilst we are waiting in vain for winter to arrive) have a "bonkers chart of the year competition"

Back in late February, one or two ens members brought it the -20 isotherm. It didn’t happen of course. But perhaps the hot version of the Beast will deliver +20, but still a very long shot 

I wonder how high Shetland can get if that really come off as the highest record is 24C only but can it reach 30C despite with very small land area?

Wouldn't be surprised to see 34C as soon as Wednesday.

Yes, and the uppers are just a little bit warmer too.

N24 update 2255 just said 33c in s/e maybe by Tuesday looked liked a upgrade

quote=Brian Gaze;1020205]

Wouldn't be surprised to see 34C as soon as Wednesday.