It looks a little better than average in some northern parts and almost certainly warmer than average for many. However, as this week will probably show, a number of weather fronts moving in from the NW and fizzling as they head southeast will give a decidedly different feel between NWern and SEern parts. The former will be cooler and more unsettled with a transition to hotter and drier th further south and east you go.

That's the jinx put on it now!

Heading to Aberdeen on Friday to spend a week with my parents and catching up with friends. Forecast for the first four days at least is dry and sunny and highs of 20-23c. Yes Aberdeen can get a lot warmer than that but to me that’s perfect summer weather. The current set up favours the shire because the more westerly setup allows the foehn wind and that’s always what brings the best weather to NE Scotland. Not so good for western Scotland though.

It's a south of the tees-exe line hot spell by the look of that chart. Was in the lake district at the start of july for a week and it was touching 30c, now it's forecasted highs are down to 22c...

Wouldn't mind some sun either, the cloud meant yesterday the temperature range in edinburgh was 3.2c over 24 hours - 19.7 to 16.5

Yup. For the majority of the UK (geographically speaking), it's a case of changeable weather - plenty of good (dry, sunny, warm.. perhaps hottish) weather, but also a fair few days interspersing that are cooler, with cloud predominating and even some rain, as lows threaten from the NW.

It's 7 or 8 out of 10 overall, rather than the 10/10 conditions through most of May & June, where the high was better positioned to drive any depressions to the south, whilst also bringing an easterly flow.

The E'ly flow was also, of course, of drier air, so less humid conditions.

I think this is just a return to the more typical style of decent summery weather with the split. After some atrocious summers up here, the coming week would probably be one of the better weeks of summer in other years. It looks like we have some decent summery days coming up. I just hope the cloud holds off a bit as the temperatures of 22C-26C are fine for me with good amounts of sun and no rain. Maybe we will tap into the heat a bit more on some days too. 

Down here after a cloudy weekend it is now almost cloudless. Looks like a hot one today. Already 26C before 10am!

GFS 6z keeps it hot in central and eastern England this weekend and then ramps temps further next week. Serious problems if this verifies.

Yet again a GFS run shows the dam bursting and serious heat flooding northwards into the UK in early Aug. FAR from definite but the level of consistency has been unusual in recent days. https://t.co/JlC3J8dq2M #HeatWave2018 pic.twitter.com/RIP9EO5eP5

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) July 23, 2018

I like the first response on there, Brian.

And no, it wasn't me.

 I saw that but won't reply. 

Whereas the ECM ensembles are steadfast in showing an unremarkable weekend and start to next week:

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro

It's worth noting, though, that even EPS starts to ramp up the heat into the start of August, albeit not to silly levels.

GFS 6z will be a big outlier IMO. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a trend towards warmer / hotter weather persisting in the south this weekend.

Those have already underestimated the heat by a degree or two for 12 noon today. Lots of scatter towards the end but there do seem to be some very hot ones in the mix. 

There is a trend though for low pressure to be less incursive from the west, with a correspondence resilience of high pressure to the east. 

Fair enough though, for those who like heat, this morning's GFS run is one to remember. We'd all be frizzled and frazzled by that one!

I also think there is a moderate chance of a lethal heatwave next week. 

I disagree, I think it's still too early and the risk of that is lower than 30%.

For the SE! 

Its back to normal up here in Manchester

If those ENS members (or today’s op) come off it will be plenty hot enough for Manchester. Which is hardly chilly at 24C today at midday.

I'm not so sure. It would only take a small adjustment westward for the trough to mean that Manchester could get some serious heat. The southerly flow would see to that. The only issue as ever is cloud.

It is early, but the risk is to elderly people living alone whose families may be heading on summer holiday this week. Same as if you are heading away for a fortnight and there’s a chance of a category 4 hurricane at your house next week. That’s what advisories are for.

Sorry, lashing out a bit on the back of these ‘best summer’ posts and ‘heatwave’ posts! 😕😢