The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Bertwhistle
22 July 2018 13:06:11

 

 

Out of interest, has the 576 dam line ever reached the mainland UK before? That chart is just insane.

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 

Yes- I believe I saw it in 2003. With the 564 far north, there was a 570 past much of the s. half of England, and a small circle for 576 in the SE.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
22 July 2018 13:14:15

On the high res there is actually a 38C in East Anglia.

Peak temps from 31 July to 5 August using raw output plus 2: 36, 32, 33, 37, 40, 38, 31.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

Compare to the hottest city in Europe: 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/2510911

Seville for the same period 30 July- 4 Aug:

33   32   34   34    34    36   

(Beeb doesn't stretch to 5th)


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

White Meadows
22 July 2018 14:06:48
Well, no matter what happens this week it’s already very warm and sweltering in the south. Grandma passed away this morning as the sun beat down, her accommodation was not air conditioned either.

Becareful what you wish for folks, anything above 35+ Let alone 40 degrees is going to have some serious consequences.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
22 July 2018 14:18:25

Well, no matter what happens this week it’s already very warm and sweltering in the south. Grandma passed away this morning as the sun beat down, her accommodation was not air conditioned either.

Becareful what you wish for folks, anything above 35+ Let alone 40 degrees is going to have some serious consequences.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

So sorry to hear that. 

Yes it’s sad that our weather affects life and I agree we should be careful what we wish for because we don’t always consider the consequences.   But unfortunately, there’s nothing we can do to change the weather and whatever it does, it will never be to the liking of everyone.


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

White Meadows
22 July 2018 15:02:10

So sorry to hear that. 

Yes it’s sad that our weather affects life and I agree we should be careful what we wish for because we don’t always consider the consequences.   But unfortunately, there’s nothing we can do to change the weather and whatever it does, it will never be to the liking of everyone.

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I’m enjoying the heatwave but don’t want to remember it for the wrong reasons. 

Contrary to my usual stance, I just hope it doesn’t become too severe. 

Nick Gilly
22 July 2018 15:16:38

 

Yes- I believe I saw it in 2003. With the 564 far north, there was a 570 past much of the s. half of England, and a small circle for 576 in the SE.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Thanks Bertwhistle. I know that chart won't happen but it does show the potential for some historic heat over the next week or two.

The Beast from the East
22 July 2018 16:24:42

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1007

UKMO has some intense heat in the SE

GFS 12z similar to the 06z but not as hot


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

superteacher
22 July 2018 16:32:20

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1007

UKMO has some intense heat in the SE

GFS 12z similar to the 06z but not as hot

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

GFS 12z looks like it could keep Friday hotter than the 6z, but longer term it was never going to be as hot as the ludicrous 6z run.

SJV
22 July 2018 16:48:25

 

GFS 12z looks like it could keep Friday hotter than the 6z, but longer term it was never going to be as hot as the ludicrous 6z run.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

I wouldn't be so sure of that! 

SJV
22 July 2018 16:50:12
12z continues the early August plume on the 3rd. Mid 30s widely again. Interesting consistency developing!
Brian Gaze
22 July 2018 16:52:37


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Jiries
22 July 2018 16:56:22

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1007

UKMO has some intense heat in the SE

GFS 12z similar to the 06z but not as hot

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Not keen on it if the clouds persist, it a very serious issue with the cloud amount and to get the heat in the clouds need to be removed asap.  Just like to get the cold in place to allow the snow to come so same to the sun to get in place to allow the temps to go very high.

Heavy Weather 2013
22 July 2018 16:59:51

 

Not keen on it if the clouds persist, it a very serious issue with the cloud amount and to get the heat in the clouds need to be removed asap.  Just like to get the cold in place to allow the snow to come so same to the sun to get in place to allow the temps to go very high.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Cloud amounts this weekend have been annoying. It’s warm, but could have been a lot hotter

 

 


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

superteacher
22 July 2018 17:05:20

 

Cloud amounts this weekend have been annoying. It’s warm, but could have been a lot hotter

 

 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

 

True, and quite badly forecasted.

Hopefully losing this westerly drift and the remnants of fronts will help from tomorrow onwards.

Ally Pally Snowman
22 July 2018 17:15:59

The models have been all over the place for a while and it seems they are struggling to make any logic of the patterns they’re reading.  All we can do is comment on what they’re showing, as frustrating as it is but it makes for interesting observations and shows what’s possible!  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 

Well the 12z set are still all over the place but more extreme heat in the mix than yesterday. UKMO 120h is an eye opener prob 35c in the SE .


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
22 July 2018 17:53:32

 

Cloud amounts this weekend have been annoying. It’s warm, but could have been a lot hotter

 

 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Yes it's been a disappointing weekend, more or less wall-to-wall cloud today, and rain on Friday night. Yes it's warm but it's hardly the sort of weather that makes you want to get out and do stuff.

 

The ensembles do seem to be firming up on some decent warmth in the first week of August now though. Ensemble mean now above 15C at 850mb from 3rd to 5th of August in London.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
22 July 2018 17:58:20

 

Yes it's been a disappointing weekend, more or less wall-to-wall cloud today, and rain on Friday night. Yes it's warm but it's hardly the sort of weather that makes you want to get out and do stuff.

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Depends on your perspective ! I was playing golf in bright sunshine at Redbourne yesterday afternoon. Last night I sat outside in shorts and t-shirt until 12:30am. Today I've been outside all day and there has been a lot of cloud but also reasonable amounts of sunshine!


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Brian Gaze
22 July 2018 18:05:56

Furnace heat aplenty!


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Rob K
22 July 2018 18:07:57

 

Depends on your perspective ! I was playing golf in bright sunshine at Redbourne yesterday afternoon. Last night I sat outside in shorts and t-shirt until 12:30am. Today I've been outside all day and there has been a lot of cloud but also reasonable amounts of sunshine!

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Well, I was out on a long bike ride this morning so in some ways the cloud was welcome! It has certainly felt cooler than I was expecting this weekend.

 

The control run is certainly toasty in the latter stages but it's noticeable how the heat has dipped away from what was forecast this week. High 20s rather than 30+ or even the mid-30s that were being hinted at.

 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome

SJV
22 July 2018 18:15:33

 

The control run is certainly toasty in the latter stages but it's noticeable how the heat has dipped away from what was forecast this week. High 20s rather than 30+ or even the mid-30s that were being hinted at.

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

By GFS perhaps. UKMO still on board with a significant portion of central and eastern England 30+ for much of next week with 34C predicted for Thursday and Friday. This is backed up by the UKMO 12z and is perhaps an indication of GFS being too progressive with ushering the heat away eastwards.

Time will tell I guess. If we look where we are now in the output and compare it to earlier this week the situation hasn't changed that much regarding the end of next week. Sure, some rogue runs were predicting mid 30s more widely, but the heat is still very much on.

This makes it all the more intriguing/exciting/worrying to see the trend for an even hotter plume for the beginning of August backed up by the ensembles.

Brian Gaze
22 July 2018 18:25:32

ECM also looking hotter than GFS during the second half of the week.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Rob K
22 July 2018 18:25:51

Having said that, ARPEGE is going for 34C tomorrow. It does tend to overcook temps though, just as GFS underdoes them. Although actually it was pretty close with today's temps.

 

 

it then goes for 31, 33, 34 as maxima on Tue, Wed and Thur.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." β€” Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
22 July 2018 18:26:36

That the first time I see that high on the chart that Brian put and almost reaching to the top 40C scale.  With tomorrow hotter and Friday would be the starter course before the main heat come in early August.

Hippydave
22 July 2018 18:27:51

From a personal perspective the moderation of next weeks temperatures is very welcome, although it'll still be very warm or hot for many, biased to the southern half of the country and the SE in particular (apologies to them further North but didn't really look at your weather, was vainly chasing cooler stuff for down here!).

Further afield and as the GFS shows with so much heat about and so much HP about there's a real possibility of us dragging some very hot air up and temps in the mid thirties (or even a touch higher). Hopefully that's a FI mirage that'll be moderated nearer the time but the chance is certainly there. Given the parched ground if we did drag up some very hot air and there wasn't too much cloud we could be threatening some very high temps and who knows, having a tilt at the all time record. 

We are also just nudging in to that part of the summer where we can get some heat lows drifting up from France which doesn't seem a bad bet for the mid to longer term although not too in evidence at present.

All in all, if you're a heat lover and are based in the SE the cracking (for you) summer looks set to carry on for a while yet. Cooler air does seem to make at least some progress down the country at times so more in the way of fresher weather away from the far south/south east but plenty of decent weather all the same, with GFS FI showing the heat moving North at times too.

One other thing from the GFS ens is the reduction of the rain spikes again - we really could do with some decent rain down here but it's not looking too likely. Fingers crossed at some stage we get some more widespread storms to top the water butt back up and give at least some temporary respite from the relentless dry stuff.

Edit: Hadn't seen the Arpege temps, was going on GFS 


Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: Tonbridge

Brian Gaze
22 July 2018 18:31:23

DWD goes for temps in the low 30Cs during the coming days. IMO it's one of the most accurate models although its Achilles heel is convection.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Remove ads from site