The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Brian Gaze
19 July 2018 10:01:11

 

We were talking about the EC 00z op run, not GFS. 

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

andy-manc
19 July 2018 10:06:16

 

 

Feel honoured; my forecasts are rarer than rocking horse poo (and generally about as useful)

 

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Ha. I'm sure you will be closer to the mark for these parts than the mammoth killer heat that has been the theme of this thread for the past couple of days. Not looking forward to that trough dragging its arse though!

bradders
19 July 2018 10:19:24

South East England aside, how's it looking for next week in the North West? There's a lot of excitement for extreme heat next week but for here, all the forecasts I have looked at are pointing towards temperatures around 22C-25C with a lot of cloud, some rain and some sun. 

Originally Posted by: andy-manc 

I don`t understand why the prospect of extreme heat is exciting, please explain! I hope the forecast for here is correct with 22C-25C with a lot of cloud, some rain and some sun.

Eric. Cheadle Hulme, Stockport.

andy-manc
19 July 2018 10:34:06

 

I don`t understand why the prospect of extreme heat is exciting, please explain! I hope the forecast for here is correct with 22C-25C with a lot of cloud, some rain and some sun.

Originally Posted by: bradders 

I agree about extreme heat but I would like to avoid rain and cloud as much as possible, more something like what we have had over the past couple of months. It just gets a little bit confusing at times like this as people get carried away and reading through the last few pages, you would think that the whole of the UK is nailed on for 32C+ from the weekend on-wards and that we are all going to fall ill from heat exhaustion which obviously isn't the case which is why I wanted more of a balanced forecast. 

Rob K
19 July 2018 10:40:22

GFS 6Z shows another step away from extreme heat and towards more countrywide HP domination. The low is shunted up to Iceland now.


 

 

I'm going to the Yorkshire Dales for a week in early August so would like to see more of this please!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Saint Snow
19 July 2018 10:44:59

I don`t understand why the prospect of extreme heat is exciting, please explain! I hope the forecast for here is correct with 22C-25C with a lot of cloud, some rain and some sun.

Originally Posted by: bradders 

 

And some people don't understand why people love cold & snow in winter.

Each to their own, I guess.

I wouldn't want +30c temps day after day (working would be a nightmare), but a burst of such heat if it came on a weekend would be great (IMHO)

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

superteacher
19 July 2018 10:57:52
A lot of model disagreement at 144 regarding the low pressure position in the Atlantic. It’s that which determines how hot it gets thereafter. Certainly still potential for a very hot spell.
Rob K
19 July 2018 11:04:32

A lot of model disagreement at 144 regarding the low pressure position in the Atlantic. It’s that which determines how hot it gets thereafter. Certainly still potential for a very hot spell.

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

 

A hot spell is likely to mean the end of the settled conditions though, at least for a while. The latest GFS shows the LP kept at bay. A second attempt succeeds briefly before HP spreads back up from the south, bringing temps back up to the high 20s in the south and low to mid 20s over much of the rest of England at least.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

nsrobins
19 July 2018 11:07:07

 

 

Feel honoured; my forecasts are rarer than rocking horse poo (and generally about as useful)

 

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

That’s true. When I saw Saint had posted an actual forecast I thought I’d entered an alternate reality 😉

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Jake
  • Jake
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2018 11:12:20

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=204&mode=0

a few days ago GFS was confident of a breakdown, now the block renews itself

Horrendous stuff for people like me.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Remind me its been a while this is good for good weather  ( sunny/warm) isnt?

youtube page:My You tube page 
superteacher
19 July 2018 11:13:29

 

 

A hot spell is likely to mean the end of the settled conditions though, at least for a while. The latest GFS shows the LP kept at bay. A second attempt succeeds briefly before HP spreads back up from the south, bringing temps back up to the high 20s in the south and low to mid 20s over much of the rest of England at least.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

True, but we need at least one very hot spell this summer if it’s going to be classed as a true classic.

Jiries
19 July 2018 11:27:36

GFS 6Z shows another step away from extreme heat and towards more countrywide HP domination. The low is shunted up to Iceland now.


 

 

I'm going to the Yorkshire Dales for a week in early August so would like to see more of this please!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I take it as long it carry on what we are seeing now.  So glad to have a break from bad summers and extremely boring rain showers and cool temps that I haven't seen this year yet.

See the HP seem to sit nicely where the current very warm sea temps over SW and Ireland and the Baltic and little bit over N Sea.

https://www.seatemperature.org/

Must be very warm to swim on Irish, SW and Baltic beach areas.

KevBrads1
19 July 2018 11:40:00

GFS 6Z shows another step away from extreme heat and towards more countrywide HP domination. The low is shunted up to Iceland now.


 

 

I'm going to the Yorkshire Dales for a week in early August so would like to see more of this please!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Not far off early August 1995 scenario

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

superteacher
19 July 2018 11:57:11

Interestingly there is little support from the ensembles in the mid term for the GFS 6z op in the way that it ridges the Azores high back in.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2018 12:21:19
Brian Gaze
19 July 2018 13:11:33

GEFS 06z look hot or very hot into August. GFS 6z op was one of the coolest runs between 27/07 and 29/07. To me it still looks like we are heading for the hottest spell of the summer.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

bradders
19 July 2018 13:27:03

 

I agree about extreme heat but I would like to avoid rain and cloud as much as possible, more something like what we have had over the past couple of months. It just gets a little bit confusing at times like this as people get carried away and reading through the last few pages, you would think that the whole of the UK is nailed on for 32C+ from the weekend on-wards and that we are all going to fall ill from heat exhaustion which obviously isn't the case which is why I wanted more of a balanced forecast. 

Originally Posted by: andy-manc 

As a hosepipe ban starts in the NW on 1st August, I think we need all the rain we can get.

Eric. Cheadle Hulme, Stockport.

White Meadows
19 July 2018 14:05:48
Good support today for a continued heatwave. Ok maybe no 35+ but to be honest who wants that if it means a sudden decline into standard U.K. deluge and cool temperatures. Not me.
golfingmad
19 July 2018 14:18:02

Good support today for a continued heatwave. Ok maybe no 35+ but to be honest who wants that if it means a sudden decline into standard U.K. deluge and cool temperatures. Not me.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I agree. The picture painted by GFS this morning suggests a less severe heatwave, but conversely after a small blip the rebuilding of high pressure from the SW. That suggests to me that the block isn't going anywhere else anytime soon.

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
noodle doodle
19 July 2018 14:32:57

 

I agree about extreme heat but I would like to avoid rain and cloud as much as possible, more something like what we have had over the past couple of months. It just gets a little bit confusing at times like this as people get carried away and reading through the last few pages, you would think that the whole of the UK is nailed on for 32C+ from the weekend on-wards and that we are all going to fall ill from heat exhaustion which obviously isn't the case which is why I wanted more of a balanced forecast. 

Originally Posted by: andy-manc 

 

FWIW, next Thursday Edinburgh is predicted to hit 19C (MetOffice) or 15C (GFS), so we're halfway to that 30C mark!

superteacher
19 July 2018 14:33:05

I agree. The picture painted by GFS this morning suggests a less severe heatwave, but conversely after a small blip the rebuilding of high pressure from the SW. That suggests to me that the block isn't going anywhere else anytime soon.

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

Although the 6z op run was towards the bottom of the ensembles. The 12z runs will be interesting!

LeedsLad123
19 July 2018 14:42:55

 

I agree about extreme heat but I would like to avoid rain and cloud as much as possible, more something like what we have had over the past couple of months. It just gets a little bit confusing at times like this as people get carried away and reading through the last few pages, you would think that the whole of the UK is nailed on for 32C+ from the weekend on-wards and that we are all going to fall ill from heat exhaustion which obviously isn't the case which is why I wanted more of a balanced forecast. 

Originally Posted by: andy-manc 

Tomorrow looks potentially dreadful up here with that pointless front moving south. I sincerely hope that it breaks up and we get little or no rain.

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
19 July 2018 15:08:07

with that pointless front moving south.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

 

You sound like Jiries!

 

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

LeedsLad123
19 July 2018 16:02:25

 

 

You sound like Jiries!

 

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Well, it is unfair that the front decides to move south on purpose when it should stay in Scotland. 

Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
golfingmad
19 July 2018 16:28:09

Further downgrade in the GFS 12z so far, with any real warmth restricted to the SE.

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.

Remove ads from site