The Weather Outlook

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2018 18:04:49

The GFS Op is not the Jiries shed run of the night though. That goes to GEM members P12 and P16.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
18 July 2018 18:07:30

Even more of an outlier on the 2m temperatures. For some reason the op run doesn't cool down at night.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

On that plot both min and max temps are plotted for each run. After 240 hours the op run switches to 12 hour time steps, therefore night and day don't have the same meaning. The rest of the GEFS runs are stepped at 6 hour intervals throughout. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Rob K
18 July 2018 18:09:00

The GFS Op is not the Jiries shed run of the night though. That goes to GEM members P12 and P16.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Link? Meteociel only has the 00Z.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

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Ally Pally Snowman
18 July 2018 18:11:01

 

Link? Meteociel only has the 00Z.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

the new wetterzentrale site has them

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
White Meadows
18 July 2018 18:21:17
Actually, the start of the warmth and dryness started in April 76 and went on til September.

The ground cracked everywhere. The hosepipe ban was lengthy and widespread. A plague of ladybirds infested the south like some kind of biblical happening.

It will be hard to beat.

Polar Low
18 July 2018 18:24:59
PFCSCOTTY
18 July 2018 18:25:10
But I am sure we got 12-15 inches of rain in September 76 on the south coast to make up for it??
Polar Low
18 July 2018 18:35:15

Let have a quick look at the met write up on 76 summer 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/o/o/jun1976.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/o/4/jul1976.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/p/s/aug1976.pdf

 

 

 

Actually, the start of the warmth and dryness started in April 76 and went on til September.
The ground cracked everywhere. The hosepipe ban was lengthy and widespread. A plague of ladybirds infested the south like some kind of biblical happening.
It will be hard to beat.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Polar Low
18 July 2018 18:37:40

correct very wet

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/p/s/sep1976.pdf

 

 

But I am sure we got 12-15 inches of rain in September 76 on the south coast to make up for it??

Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY 

superteacher
18 July 2018 18:58:39
So ECM 12z carries on the potential for very hot weather, although not quite as extreme as the GFS!
White Meadows
18 July 2018 19:09:20

So ECM 12z carries on the potential for very hot weather, although not quite as extreme as the GFS!

Originally Posted by: superteacher 

yup, continued support for the true furnace later next week. Old Shroppers loves to put a downer on these things doesn’t he 🥕......🔥🔥🔥🔥

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2018 19:10:22
Indeed ECM gets to heatwave level via a different route and with lower pressure. But still getting to 30C+ Every day next week by the look of things.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gusty
18 July 2018 19:12:16

This is all lining up to be something exceptional. We've passed the mid July nervy bit. IMO the weather pattern in that 20-30th July period often is a precursor to the remainder of the summer...

Just say we end up with a July CET 19.5c ! 

All we would need is 17.7c or more in August to beat 1976. 

A long way off but dare to dream.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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Polar Low
18 July 2018 19:18:25

I dont think ive seen them that high for so long on the weersite Steve they also tend to undercook amazing stuff

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&gfs_2m

 

This is all lining up to be something exceptional. We've passed the mid July nervy bit. IMO the weather pattern in that 20-30th July period often is a precursor to the remainder of the summer...

Just say we end up with a July CET 19.5c ! 

All we would need is 17.7c or more in August to beat 1976. 

A long way off but dare to dream.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

golfingmad
18 July 2018 19:24:10

This is all lining up to be something exceptional. We've passed the mid July nervy bit. IMO the weather pattern in that 20-30th July period often is a precursor to the remainder of the summer...

Just say we end up with a July CET 19.5c ! 

All we would need is 17.7c or more in August to beat 1976. 

A long way off but dare to dream.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Indeed. The warmer the final figure for July, the easier on August it will be to secure at least one of the Top Five positions in the CET summer series, even perhaps surpassing 1976 as the warmest summer since 1659.

It's all down to a straight weighted average over the three meteorological summer months. Whatever happened in May, whether there's a plague of ladybirds, cracked reservoirs, hosepipe bans, water rationing and stand pipes in the streets, an appointed Minister for Drought, all that doesn't matter. All is the needed is the figures and we will have experienced the best ever summer in recorded history. 

ECM this evening looks even more solid for heat than the previous run. Everything is lining up for something quite special next week.

 

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Stormchaser
18 July 2018 19:27:47

Well, the GFS 12z has left me feeling a bit queasy actually (but then again, it could be a viral bug that's going around!). It takes the heat beyond the levels I would ever wish on the people of this country with their mostly poor house designs for letting heat out at night. Or those who travel long distances to work... especially those who use the underground for example! I wonder if they would have to shut it down due to dangerous temperatures?

The ECM 12z, while taking longer to get the high into a position that takes our weather from hot to very hot, is on the cusp of doing so as of day 10; I expect the following day would see the mid-30s in the southeast. 

After all, the heat's had plenty of time to get stuck in before that; maximums for CS and SE England from Sunday 21st July are as follows:

25-28*C

27-31*C

27-29*C

27-31*C

27-30*C

27-29*C

26-28*C (estimated based on noon values; restrained by some residual cloud and light rain from thunderstorms the previous evening).

 

What's more, this is from a model that I've seen frequently underestimate maximum temperatures by 1-2*C, sometimes even 3*C. Related to this is the fact that it develops some scattered showers on most days during the period, which it tends to take too far in terms of coverage and persistence, much like GFS does.

I'm not entirely convinced by what ECM gets up to over NW Europe though; those diving troughs out to bring about more of a SLP rise there. A combination of this, the accordance with developing tropical signals, and the level of GEFS support (with EPS not far off as of this morning's 00z), is why I'm taking the GFS run a bit more seriously than I usually would when it shows something so extreme.

There is genuine concern brewing with respect to dangerous levels of heat.

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golfingmad
18 July 2018 19:38:21

Well, the GFS 12z has left me feeling a bit queasy actually (but then again, it could be a viral bug that's going around!). It takes the heat beyond the levels I would ever wish on the people of this country with their mostly poor house designs for letting heat out at night. Or those who travel long distances to work... especially those who use the underground for example! I wonder if they would have to shut it down due to dangerous temperatures?

The ECM 12z, while taking longer to get the high into a position that takes our weather from hot to very hot, is on the cusp of doing so as of day 10; I expect the following day would see the mid-30s in the southeast. 

After all, the heat's had plenty of time to get stuck in before that; maximums for CS and SE England from Sunday 21st July are as follows:

25-28*C

27-31*C

27-29*C

27-31*C

27-30*C

27-29*C

26-28*C (estimated based on noon values; restrained by some residual cloud and light rain from thunderstorms the previous evening).

 

What's more, this is from a model that I've seen frequently underestimate maximum temperatures by 1-2*C, sometimes even 3*C. Related to this is the fact that it develops some scattered showers on most days during the period, which it tends to take too far in terms of coverage and persistence, much like GFS does.

I'm not entirely convinced by what ECM gets up to over NW Europe though; those diving troughs out to bring about more of a SLP rise there. A combination of this, the accordance with developing tropical signals, and the level of GEFS support (with EPS not far off as of this morning's 00z), is why I'm taking the GFS run a bit more seriously than I usually would when it shows something so extreme.

There is genuine concern brewing with respect to dangerous levels of heat.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

There is certainly potential concern for the elderly and the very young.

I remember the high death rate in the Paris region in the August 2003 heatwave, where I believe 40C or more was reached. I have family living in central Paris and they said the effects of that heatwave were devastating.

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Hungry Tiger
18 July 2018 19:38:34

This is all lining up to be something exceptional. We've passed the mid July nervy bit. IMO the weather pattern in that 20-30th July period often is a precursor to the remainder of the summer...

Just say we end up with a July CET 19.5c ! 

All we would need is 17.7c or more in August to beat 1976. 

A long way off but dare to dream.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

That won't be too difficult I reckon. :-)

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Polar Low
18 July 2018 19:39:47

Thanks James, Amazing depth of heat building as you say dangerous, my thoughts for the sick and elderly

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

 

 

 

Well, the GFS 12z has left me feeling a bit queasy actually (but then again, it could be a viral bug that's going around!). It takes the heat beyond the levels I would ever wish on the people of this country with their mostly poor house designs for letting heat out at night. Or those who travel long distances to work... especially those who use the underground for example! I wonder if they would have to shut it down due to dangerous temperatures?

The ECM 12z, while taking longer to get the high into a position that takes our weather from hot to very hot, is on the cusp of doing so as of day 10; I expect the following day would see the mid-30s in the southeast. 

After all, the heat's had plenty of time to get stuck in before that; maximums for CS and SE England from Sunday 21st July are as follows:

25-28*C

27-31*C

27-29*C

27-31*C

27-30*C

27-29*C

26-28*C (estimated based on noon values; restrained by some residual cloud and light rain from thunderstorms the previous evening).

 

What's more, this is from a model that I've seen frequently underestimate maximum temperatures by 1-2*C, sometimes even 3*C. Related to this is the fact that it develops some scattered showers on most days during the period, which it tends to take too far in terms of coverage and persistence, much like GFS does.

I'm not entirely convinced by what ECM gets up to over NW Europe though; those diving troughs out to bring about more of a SLP rise there. A combination of this, the accordance with developing tropical signals, and the level of GEFS support (with EPS not far off as of this morning's 00z), is why I'm taking the GFS run a bit more seriously than I usually would when it shows something so extreme.

There is genuine concern brewing with respect to dangerous levels of heat.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

White Meadows
18 July 2018 20:10:48
My G’ma is 97 years old, can’t eat or even drink too well.. her body is already shutting down. I fear next week will quite literally be the final nail in the coffin 😢
springsunshine
18 July 2018 20:25:08

 

That won't be too difficult I reckon. :-)

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

More like nigh on impossible! Whilst there is a more than good chance this summer will be in the top 3 summers in the cet series I just can`t see 1976 being topped in temperature or longevity although at this rate it could be dryer.

Phil 2804
18 July 2018 20:29:02

But I am sure we got 12-15 inches of rain in September 76 on the south coast to make up for it??

Originally Posted by: PFCSCOTTY 

 

Aberdeen recorded about 10 inches of rain in September 1995 most of it falling over just  96 hours when the drought finally broke mid month.

I won't be at all surprised if this drought breaks in similar fashion for somewhere in the UK. 

superteacher
18 July 2018 20:30:13

 

More like nigh on impossible! Whilst there is a more than good chance this summer will be in the top 3 summers in the cet series I just can`t see 1976 being topped in temperature or longevity although at this rate it could be dryer.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

in this summer, anything is possible! We are long overdue a hot August.

golfingmad
18 July 2018 20:44:44

 

More like nigh on impossible! Whilst there is a more than good chance this summer will be in the top 3 summers in the cet series I just can`t see 1976 being topped in temperature or longevity although at this rate it could be dryer.

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

This summer surpassing 1976 is entirely possible. It does depend of course on a very good July (which now seems possible) and a good August. As far as the CET summer series is concerned, the arithmetic weighted average of the three summer months is all that counts.

Put another way, the CET for summer 1976 is 17.77C. This is the number one summer in the CET series since 1659. For 2018, June had a CET of 16.1C. If for example July comes out at 19.2C (which is now entirely possible), then a CET figure of 18.1C would be required for August in order to achieve 17.8C for the CET summer series and surpass 1976. Admittedly, 18.1C for August is a strong ask, being 8th in the CET monthly series, but it is entirely possible.

Regardless of what else may happen, if it rains or if the sunshine hours are less impressive than before, if the weighted average temperatures are achieved then 2018 will be number one.  

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Devonian
18 July 2018 20:56:32

Well, the GFS 12z has left me feeling a bit queasy actually (but then again, it could be a viral bug that's going around!). It takes the heat beyond the levels I would ever wish on the people of this country with their mostly poor house designs for letting heat out at night. Or those who travel long distances to work... especially those who use the underground for example! I wonder if they would have to shut it down due to dangerous temperatures?

The ECM 12z, while taking longer to get the high into a position that takes our weather from hot to very hot, is on the cusp of doing so as of day 10; I expect the following day would see the mid-30s in the southeast. 

After all, the heat's had plenty of time to get stuck in before that; maximums for CS and SE England from Sunday 21st July are as follows:

25-28*C

27-31*C

27-29*C

27-31*C

27-30*C

27-29*C

26-28*C (estimated based on noon values; restrained by some residual cloud and light rain from thunderstorms the previous evening).

 

What's more, this is from a model that I've seen frequently underestimate maximum temperatures by 1-2*C, sometimes even 3*C. Related to this is the fact that it develops some scattered showers on most days during the period, which it tends to take too far in terms of coverage and persistence, much like GFS does.

I'm not entirely convinced by what ECM gets up to over NW Europe though; those diving troughs out to bring about more of a SLP rise there. A combination of this, the accordance with developing tropical signals, and the level of GEFS support (with EPS not far off as of this morning's 00z), is why I'm taking the GFS run a bit more seriously than I usually would when it shows something so extreme.

There is genuine concern brewing with respect to dangerous levels of heat.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Me too, I must keep telling myself its all perfectly normal....

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