exactly. Why anyone would enjoy this is sick. Today was hot enough for me and at least we may break the drought on Friday. Hasn’t rained here since May 28th. However, I accept that the shoe is on the other foot now. I like extremely cold weather and that can also kill 

We go through this every year. Watching and commenting on the models doesn't make a jot of difference to the weather, so no guilt is required. Just make sure that you take care of relatives and neighbours in need, if extreme weather arrives. But also appreciate it for what it is, noteworthy weather. If record-breaking weather doesn't interest people then they are probably on the wrong forum here!

Agreed.

Well said - it's the same over on NetWeather, certain people guilt-tripping others because they find the prospect of extreme weather exciting, yet the same people will be wetting their knickers at the thought of -20C uppers in January. Hypocrisy. 

As you say, why would anyone be on a weather forum if they don't appreciate the extremes occasionally? 38C is definitely not pleasant and I wouldn't want it day after day but it's certainly a noteworthy occurrence. Likewise, I wouldn't want -10C maxes in winter day after day but I would still find it exciting if it happened, at least for one day.

I mean, come on people - surely nobody joined this forum because they just love average British weather so much. 

As someone who takes insulin 4 times a day, I find it a real struggle when it’s very hot. My blood sugars drop like a stone very quickly, and already have had a couple of close shaves needing fat coke. BUT I love the heat, and the fact that it is something so very special in the  UK is great. 

ECM looks OK. Reasonably settled, just not megabhot.

As for GFS, we’re 2 into the latest 4 consecutive downgrades. The tea leaves are staying true to form so far.

Eh? Slightly less hot, but not a considerable backtrack. Temps still into the low / mid thirties in places.

GFS 00z a very slight downgrade from the 18z, but it’s a cool outlier.

Yep, and 18z was also only a smallish downgrade. Need two more minor ones and then for the following 4 to be big.

Unfortunately most models plus the media have been upgrading the risk of heavy rain tomorrow for my barbecue. Should have held it last Friday.

The collective bleats of relief from southern sheep are almost audible from here...

Interesting that the MetOffice 10 day trend video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pV907Lr8zEk) highlights the uncertainty around next week, particularly with regard to the progress (or lack of) of the cooler air from the North West. Some nice ENS graphics illustrating the variation in modelling for the front's location by Wednesday next week, with some scenarios showing cooler air right down into southern England, others keep the front up over Scotland and NI with the hot air over England and Wales. Much to be decided, upgrade/downgrade rules permitting natch.

Last week they were showing a similar split from July 17, and ended up taking the settled option.

It doesn't have these temps. The raw model values are 27-29C and you can probably add ~2C

Raw temp for London area showing 31C on some days, so actual temp 33-34 probably.

I don't see any rain to come tomorrow as the spikes almost gone now and those spikes at near 0z had been there since late June that never happen.   They are too focus about non-exist heavy rain than talking about the heat amount and what will effect.

That's wrong, where do you see it? 

Here

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=00&charthour=207&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

South East England aside, how's it looking for next week in the North West? There's a lot of excitement for extreme heat next week but for here, all the forecasts I have looked at are pointing towards temperatures around 22C-25C with a lot of cloud, some rain and some sun. 

We were talking about the EC 00z op run, not GFS. 

GFS and ECM split from this weekend so it's hard to make a judgment yet.

Both show a low sinking south over eastern UK on Friday before the AH ridges back in. GFS shows it building over the UK by Wednesday then drifting ENE and dragging some hot air from the south by Friday. Best temps in the SE, but right up to here should see hot. ECM has further less settled weather Tue/Wed in a slack picture before rebuilding the high into the UK on Friday.

After that, GFS shows the hot weather continuing into the weekend but with unstable air likely bringing some storms, before high pressure sinks south a bit and it freshens from the west. Into the following week, a trough drags its arse across the UK bringing wet weather Tue/Wed, before the AH rebuilds strongly as we reach the end of FI.

ECM shows a great weekend, but then has more of a cut-off Atlantic low moving ESE towards us, approaching Ireland by the end of the run as high pressure sits to our NE, bringing a nice E'ly (if the low carried on that trajectory into the continent, it'd likely prop-up high pressure to our NE/N, which would be ace)

The General Situation for day 5-8 looks like staying dry very warm and also hot and Sunny for much of the UK.

Ireland and West NW Scotland May well be cooler and fresher with West SW winds.

On Sunday and Monday the North And NW UK looks cloudy with chance of showery rain possible and Westerly winds, while Wales, Central And Southern UK looks hot and Sunny or very warm.

The chance of very hot weather from day 5-8 is still there with a day 7-8 Thundery heat Low being possible in Central And SE England et all...

Next week from Wednesday to Friday a West And NW versus SE and East split in our weather is quite possible.

The forecast is varied in their scenario and effects for next week so the situation could still worsen or get better and very hot and sunny weather is still being predicted for SE and East Central England next week as the Azores High ridges often and strong North Atlantic PV shortwave Low could stay out of UK from Wednesday and Thursday 25th-26th July, with Spanish plume heat move up from Spain and NW Africa.

And chance of Bush Fires.

👍😎😆☀️🌦⚡️🌤.

Regardless of what exactly happens next week (and I still think it's more likely for the proper hot runs to disappear by Monday), the EC ens continues to have an impressive amount of blocking throughout.

At T+360 (3 Aug) its ens mean has a ~2 standard deviation positive anomaly in 500 hPa over N.Europe.

We'll probably get another very warm and blocked EC46 today, prompting the Met Office to increasingly go for such an outcome in August.

Thanks for the updates. So either way some heat on offer but also some instability. I'll take that for now but ideally (selfishly for here) I'd like to get back to that settled easterly at some point giving us a few more weeks of pleasant sunny weather. 

Feel honoured; my forecasts are rarer than rocking horse poo (and generally about as useful)