The Weather Outlook

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Hungry Tiger
24 June 2018 10:27:46

Surprised to see it drop again.

Must be the cool nights.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



ARTzeman
25 June 2018 10:14:11

Met Office Hadley            15.8c.     Anomaly      1.8c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                         15.7c      Anomaly      1.43c

Netweather                      16.0c      Anomaly      1.19c

Canvey Island                 17.0c      Anomaly      0.38c

Clevedon Weather           17.6c      Anomaly      1.16c

Mansfield Woodhouse      15.7c      Anomaly      0.22c

Peasedown St John       17.3c.      Anomaly       0.95c.

 

10 Station Mean 16.38c.                  




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
26 June 2018 11:11:38

Met Office Hadley          15.8c.     Anomaly       1.8c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                       15.78c    Anomaly        1.63c

Netweather                    16.16c    Anomaly        2.07c

Hexam                   15.0c.     Anomaly       0.46c

Mansfield Woodhouse    15.8c    Anomaly    0.45c. 

Cheadle Hulme       16.5c     Anomaly   1.14c

Peasedown St John    17.7c  Anomaly   1.35c.  

Treviskey Redruth     15.4c.  Anomaly   0.1c.

 

10 Station Mean       16.55c.

 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
27 June 2018 11:15:41

Met Office Hadley       16.0c.       Anomaly       2.0c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                    15.88c      Anomaly       1.73c

Netweather                 16.31c.     Anomaly        2.21c

Canvey Island       17.1c          Anomaly       0.48c

Darwen          17.6c        Anomaly       1.56c

Clevedon Weather      18.0c      Anomaly    1.56c

Mansfield Woodhouse   15.8c     Anomaly   0.45c

Peasedown St John   17.9c.  Anomaly  1.55c.

 

10 Station Mean   16.67c.         




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
27 June 2018 14:01:53

Met Office Hadley       16.0c.       Anomaly       2.0c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                    15.88c      Anomaly       1.73c

Netweather                 16.31c.     Anomaly        2.21c

Canvey Island       17.1c          Anomaly       0.48c

Darwen          17.6c        Anomaly       1.56c

Clevedon Weather      18.0c      Anomaly    1.56c

Mansfield Woodhouse   15.8c     Anomaly   0.45c

Peasedown St John   17.9c.  Anomaly  1.55c.

 

10 Station Mean   16.67c.         

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Oddly when Hadley was last at 16.0 a week ago Metcheck was at 15.59 and 10 station mean at 16.22. So the others have risen while Hadley CET has gone down then up to the same place. Suggests the downward adjustment at month end may not be so big this month.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Whether Idle
27 June 2018 19:05:58
By my crude calculations using forecasted means for the 3 locations, we end up with a June CET of 16.4 prior to adjustments.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ARTzeman
28 June 2018 11:31:40

Met Office Hadley           16.2c       Anomaly      2.1c. Provisional to 27th

Metcheck                        15.93c     Anomaly       1.79c

Netweather                     16.4c       Anomaly       2.3c

Alton                            16.7c       Anomaly       0.83c

Canvey Island              17.2c       Anomaly       0.58c

Cheadle Hulme             17.0c      Anomaly       1.64c

Clevedon Weather        18.1c      Anomaly        1.66c

Mansfield Woodhouse    16.0c     Anomaly        0.52c

Peasedown St John        18.0c.    Anomaly       1.65c. 

 

Mean of my watched 10 stations   16.84c                    




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Hungry Tiger
28 June 2018 14:33:07

Just another 0.2C to stick us in the top 10 Junes.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



golfingmad
28 June 2018 15:09:40

Just another 0.2C to stick us in the top 10 Junes.

 

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I was hoping that June may settle at 16.5C, which would give it tenth position all by itself!

 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Jonesy
29 June 2018 08:44:12

Just anyone have stats for July at hand? only 48hrs to go till July kicks off ......year is flying!


Medway Towns (Kent)

The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !

ARTzeman
29 June 2018 10:37:00

Met Office Hadley        16.3c.    Anomaly   2.2c Provisional to 28th.

Metcheck                     16.01c   Anomaly   1.86c

Netweather                  16.49c   Anomaly   2.4c

Clevedon Weather        18.3c    Anomaly    1.86c

Mansfield Woodhouse  16.0c    Anomaly    1.65c

peasedown St John   18.0c.    Anomaly    1.65c.

 

10 Station Mean   16.82c.      




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
30 June 2018 12:49:39

Met Office Hadley          16.4c       Anomaly       2.3c

Metcheck                       16.11c     Anomaly       1.97c

Netweather                    16.58c     Anomaly       2.49c

Alton                            16.9c       Anomaly       0.63c

Canvey Island               17.3c       Anomaly       0.68c

Cheadle Hulme              17.3c       Anomaly       1.94c

Clevedon Weather          18.4c      Anomaly        1.96c

Darwen                         18.1c      Anomaly       2.24c

Hexam                          15.9c     Anomaly        1.36c

Mount Sorrel                  16.7c     Anomaly        1.22c

Mansfield Woodhouse      16.2c    Anomaly         0.85c

Peasedown St John         18.1c    Anomaly         1.75c

Treviskey Redruth           15.7c    Anomaly         0.4c.

 

Mean Temperature Of My 10 Watched Stations   17.06c.          




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Hungry Tiger
30 June 2018 14:05:28

I've got an idea what I'll go for when Simon puts on the July CET watch.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Stormchaser
30 June 2018 15:35:23

So uh... I used the ECM raw numbers to estimate what the 00z run did for the CET. 

It sits in the 20s for 1st-9th. That's an impressive start, but GFS continues to produce some much lower temps for the middle part of next week due to more of a HP circulation to the N/NE bringing drier air back into play plus some low cloud at times, really holding the temps down for the east of the triangle.

UKMO 00z sided with ECM so I see that warmer outcome as the favourite - but temps might not get quite so high of the diurnal shower potential is being underestimated (there's hardly any on the 00z ECM run).

 

Oh and - the raw ECM numbers for my location place my mean at around 22*C for the first 9 days. That's not far off the sort of weekly mean I saw during the hottest spells of July 2006! 


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Global Warming
30 June 2018 16:27:03

The minimum CET for June is provisionally 11.4C which is 1.4C above the 1981-2010 mean

The maximum CET for June is provisionally 21.4C to yesterday which is 2.5C above the 1981-2010 mean.

The maximum CET could end up the 4th highest on record. Still way below 1976 though.

Here are the years with a maximum June CET of 21C or more:

22.6C 1976
21.9C 1940
21.7C 1970
21.4C 2018 (prov)
21.3C 1899
21.2C 1960
21.1C 2003
21.1C 1957
21.0C 2006
21.0C 1896
21.0C 1893
21.0C 1887

July thread coming shortly.

Bertwhistle
30 June 2018 16:32:23

The minimum CET for June is provisionally 11.4C which is 1.4C above the 1981-2010 mean

The maximum CET for June is provisionally 21.4C to yesterday which is 2.5C above the 1981-2010 mean.

The maximum CET could end up the 4th highest on record. Still way below 1976 though.

Here are the years with a maximum June CET of 21C or more:

22.6C 1976
21.9C 1940
21.7C 1970
21.4C 2018 (prov)
21.3C 1899
21.2C 1960
21.1C 2003
21.1C 1957
21.0C 2006
21.0C 1896
21.0C 1893
21.0C 1887

July thread coming shortly.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Thanks; an interesting league table GW.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
30 June 2018 16:38:18

So uh... I used the ECM raw numbers to estimate what the 00z run did for the CET. 

It sits in the 20s for 1st-9th. That's an impressive start, but GFS continues to produce some much lower temps for the middle part of next week due to more of a HP circulation to the N/NE bringing drier air back into play plus some low cloud at times, really holding the temps down for the east of the triangle.

UKMO 00z sided with ECM so I see that warmer outcome as the favourite - but temps might not get quite so high of the diurnal shower potential is being underestimated (there's hardly any on the 00z ECM run).

 

Oh and - the raw ECM numbers for my location place my mean at around 22*C for the first 9 days. That's not far off the sort of weekly mean I saw during the hottest spells of July 2006! 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

That tallies well with mine for that period SC: w/c Monday 17th July 2006, through to and including Sunday 23rd- mean maximum 28.5, brought down by a slightly cooler weekend; and mean minimum 15.7 (with some hot nights 19th-21st). 22.1 the mean, pretty well maintained for the few days afterwards too with just a 0.3 drop until the following Friday.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Global Warming
30 June 2018 16:43:00

The combined Apr - June CET for 2018 will be the 3rd warmest ever and only the 5th time that the CET for these 3 months has reached 13C

Highest Apr - Jun CETs on record:

13.40C 1798
13.27C 1762
13.16C 2018 (prov)
13.00C 1775
13.00C 1893

jhall
30 June 2018 18:10:58

The combined Apr - June CET for 2018 will be the 3rd warmest ever and only the 5th time that the CET for these 3 months has reached 13C

Highest Apr - Jun CETs on record:

13.40C 1798
13.27C 1762
13.16C 2018 (prov)
13.00C 1775
13.00C 1893

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

It's a real surprise that the other four leading values should have been set so long ago.


Cranleigh, Surrey
golfingmad
30 June 2018 19:04:59

 

It's a real surprise that the other four leading values should have been set so long ago.

Originally Posted by: jhall 

No doubt partly (or mostly) due to the hottest Junes occurring before the twentieth century. Top four hottest Junes are 1846, 1676,1826, and 1822. I would like to know what on earth was going on in 1846 with a CET value of 18.2C? 1976 at 17.0C was ridiculous enough but 18.2C in June must have been amazing. Put in context, June 2018 may come out at around 16.4C but that again is totally eclipsed by all these pre-20th Century Junes.

Interestingly, of the three summer months, both July and August all hold the top records for the CET series in recent years, but June still lags far behind in the CET series league table as far as Junes in recent years are concerned. I often wonder why that is? 


Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
Bolty
01 July 2018 08:34:06
My local average is an incredible 16.9°C in Manchester. 2.3°C above 1981-2010 and by far the warmest June I've ever recorded.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Global Warming
01 July 2018 10:17:11

Final June figure is 16.10C

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2018

Several people, including myself predicted this figure.

Congratulations to Norseman, marting and Devonian

Rob K
01 July 2018 10:36:28

Interestingly, of the three summer months, both July and August all hold the top records for the CET series in recent years, but June still lags far behind in the CET series league table as far as Junes in recent years are concerned. I often wonder why that is? 

Originally Posted by: golfingmad 

My perception is that the seasons seem to have shifted a bit later in recent times, with the coldest winter weather often coming in late February and March, and "Indian summers" often having the best weather after a poor midsummer. Of course the trend for warm Aprils and Mays sort of messes up that theory, but June (and August) have often been poor in comparison recently.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Global Warming
01 July 2018 11:21:02

The minimum CET for June is provisionally 11.4C which is 1.4C above the 1981-2010 mean

The maximum CET for June is provisionally 21.4C to yesterday which is 2.5C above the 1981-2010 mean.

The maximum CET could end up the 4th highest on record. Still way below 1976 though.

Here are the years with a maximum June CET of 21C or more:

22.6C 1976
21.9C 1940
21.7C 1970
21.4C 2018 (prov)
21.3C 1899
21.2C 1960
21.1C 2003
21.1C 1957
21.0C 2006
21.0C 1896
21.0C 1893
21.0C 1887

July thread coming shortly.

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Final official maximum CET for June is 21.62C so fourth place it is just behind 1970 but still 1C behind 1976.

Minimum CET was 10.59C which put it in equal 20th place

superteacher
01 July 2018 11:53:45
Surprised that’s it’s 16.1 when the provisional was at 16.4. Quite a drop.

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