The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2018 20:11:15

 

I don't think so. Here are the T2m maximum temperature charts for the ECM model. No 30C until next Saturday.

Generally the maximum temperatures are to the west of London due to easterly winds. That only changes on 1st July on this ECM run when the winds move to the south and the Essex / Kent area then becomes hot.

Wednesday 27th - maximum of 80F so someway below 30C

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180627-1800z.html

Thursday 28th - maximum of 85F so very close to 30C

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180628-1800z.html

Friday 29th - maximum of 84F

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180629-1800z.html

Saturday 30th - maximum of 87F (that is above 30C)

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2a331d14c080dc858c972f7d81b3ce7f/max-temp-2m-6h/20180630-1800z.html

Sunday 1st - maximum of 91F (Gravesend probably)

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/max-temp-2m-6h/20180701-1800z.html

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 

Thanks GW , you can normally add a degree or 2 to the max though so maybe Thursday and Friday as well.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Global Warming
22 June 2018 20:11:34

GFS has 30C reached by next Thursday with 91F by Friday. Maximum temperatures on this model are in the London area. After Friday the temperatures ease down a bit but still hot.

https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/greater-london/max-temp-2m-6h/20180628-1800z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/greater-london/max-temp-2m-6h/20180629-1800z.html

ARPEGE has 31C near Exeter as early as Tuesday 

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2018062212/arpegeuk-41-98-0.png?22-18

 

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
22 June 2018 20:40:25

It looks like a slow to shift High Pressure will be in charge, very and sunny and very light winds and some hot conditions likely from Saturday onwards and lasting at least for about 11 days.

Proper summer weather.  Still quite pleasant conditions in London today. By the 30th June and 1-2 July SE England could turn very humid and hot with a few thunderstorms being possible as SE winds and hot air mix with unstable Low Pressure.  The GFS and ECMWF Models both are very confident in this prediction of High Pressure from UK to NE Europe Scandinavian High.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

golfingmad
22 June 2018 21:46:31

Sod 2006, I'm thinking 1976....mixed in with a touch of August 2003.

All joking aside though, I hope we don't see wildfires.....I spend many times in Australia and the countryside is looking very dry and Australian-esque at the moment. I fear there is quite a high fire danger.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

If we had 1976 with a 'touch of August 2003' we'd have meltdown!

 

Cambridge and Winchmore Hill London N21.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 21:50:47
So, pub run time. We’ve had 4 upgrades on the trot from GFS after about 4 successsive downgrades. Will next week hold firm or start to slip back? What will happen at the Wed-Thurs inflection point, will this be resolved or remain uncertain?
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 21:56:34
By 81z, a minor (subtle) downgrade with lower pressure to the South.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
22 June 2018 22:25:22
By 171z still closely following the previous run but slightly lower pressure and max temps.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Retron
23 June 2018 04:02:06

Yes Darren good smoke screen but you can add 10c in your flat

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

I've never lived in a flat! It's what estate agents would call a "chalet bungalow" with a flat roof. I now have a portable aircon too, which helps immensely in the summer.

Not that it's going to be heavily in use with a forecast like this! Despite the heat-ramping here, the Met Office is going for pleasant enough temperatures IMBY.

Leysdown, north Kent
Polar Low
23 June 2018 07:52:37

 

Apologies, I was convinced you said a while ago you lived in a flat with your dad sorry for getting it wrong.

 

 

I've never lived in a flat! It's what estate agents would call a "chalet bungalow" with a flat roof. I now have a portable aircon too, which helps immensely in the summer.

Not that it's going to be heavily in use with a forecast like this! Despite the heat-ramping here, the Met Office is going for pleasant enough temperatures IMBY.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

TimS
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  • Advanced Member
23 June 2018 07:54:43
This morning’s GFS a big cool outlier, but also a dry one.

The drift this morning seems to be towards HP getting squeezed from North and South by the weekend.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
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23 June 2018 10:35:16
06z is a big downgrade and rather crap. 13C max next Sunday.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Shropshire
23 June 2018 10:40:07

06z is a big downgrade and rather crap. 13C max next Sunday.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Yes a big change in the NWP this morning as in the shorter term the orientation of the High is changed which means temps are generally low to mid twenties rather than what we were seeing yesterday. Then we see this Low being developed off the Seabaord which ultimately gets East of the Meridian and brings the Atlantic back at some point next weekend.

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doctormog
23 June 2018 10:41:40

06z is a big downgrade and rather crap. 13C max next Sunday.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Come up to the Moray Firth for a day as the max there is modelled to be 28°C 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Joe Bloggs
23 June 2018 10:44:23

06z is a big downgrade and rather crap. 13C max next Sunday.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Still looks great for the entire week.

Yes next weekend looking a bit shabby though with a keen easterly.

The weekend was never set in stone though to be fair.

All depends on the exact orientation of the anticyclone. We want it over Amsterdam rather than Oslo. 

Joe Bloggs
23 June 2018 10:50:11

 

Yes a big change in the NWP this morning as in the shorter term the orientation of the High is changed which means temps are generally low to mid twenties rather than what we were seeing yesterday. Then we see this Low being developed off the Seabaord which ultimately gets East of the Meridian and brings the Atlantic back at some point next weekend.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

In the shorter term nothing has really changed. 

The week to come remains looking sunny and very warm (albeit with more of an easterly drift Thursday onwards). 

It’s by the weekend that some cooler uppers push in. 

 

TimS
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23 June 2018 10:58:43
The weekend matters. I’m spending it at my father’s 70th, right in the middle of that blob of 13C maxes. The week involves sitting in an office looking out of the window.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
johncs2016
23 June 2018 11:02:30
I can see where all of this is going as it all looks to be set fair during the working week with the weekend then being relatively crap.

That is nothing out of the ordinary as far as our weather is concerned, as that is just typical of what the weather tends to be like in the country (albeit with the outlook being a bit more settled overall than normal).

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Shropshire
23 June 2018 11:07:19

I can see where all of this is going as it all looks to be set fair during the working week with the weekend then being relatively crap.

That is nothing out of the ordinary as far as our weather is concerned, as that is just typical of what the weather tends to be like in the country (albeit with the outlook being a bit more settled overall than normal).

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

I think we have done very well with fine weather at the weekends over the last 6 weeks or so. Hopefully next Saturday at least will be decent. 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Joe Bloggs
23 June 2018 11:11:08

The weekend matters. I’m spending it at my father’s 70th, right in the middle of that blob of 13C maxes. The week involves sitting in an office looking out of the window.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Do you not get an hour for lunch to sunbathe? 

I’ll be making the most of it 😉 . 

MetO raw data for here (according to the 00z run).

Sunday 21C

Monday 24C

Tuesday 26C

Wednesday 25C

Thursday 27C

Friday 27C.

All with full sun symbols. So this week there has been no real change and those numbers are sometimes conservative. 

The weekend is still subject to change - I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an extension to the decent conditions. Funny that in winter we would be pushing for the easterly! 

Retron
23 June 2018 11:19:52

The weekend matters. I’m spending it at my father’s 70th, right in the middle of that blob of 13C maxes. The week involves sitting in an office looking out of the window.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Whereas I'll be in a field with some wolves next weekend - 13C would be lovely.

It won't happen, though, that's a classic case of GFS "going off on one". Both GEFS and EPS continue to signal mid-20s as a likely high next weekend (for much of England at least).

Leysdown, north Kent
Joe Bloggs
23 June 2018 11:25:51

Just skimming through the 06z GEFS there’s a right mix at T+132 (Thursday evening). 

Most favour easterlies with high pressure either over Southern Scandinavia or just to the north of Scotland. Some have high pressure directly over the UK.

We seem to have lost the trend of very hot SE’lies towards the end of the week, at least for now (apart from P7 & 9). Remaining very warm and sunny for most however (definitely a higher risk of North Sea murk towards the end of the week based on today’s runs). 

Mean at T+132 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_132_1.png

Rob K
23 June 2018 11:39:56

GFS keen for the Biscay low to spoil everything. I hope that HP will hang on at least until I go back to work a week on Tuesday. Funnily enough the raw output on my phone app has now upgraded the temps to 31C here by Saturday which is the hottest it's shown all summer. Still a long way to go. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2018 11:55:54
3 downgrades in a row following on from 4 successive upgrades. Will 12z continue the trend?
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Joe Bloggs
23 June 2018 12:08:47

3 downgrades in a row following on from 4 successive upgrades. Will 12z continue the trend?

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Downgrade from a dramatic heatwave maybe, but it’s maybe worth making it clear to newer members/lurkers that there’s still a very clear outlook of warm, dry and settled weather.

The 06z GEFS mean at T+180 says it all. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

andy-manc
23 June 2018 12:46:40

 

Downgrade from a dramatic heatwave maybe, but it’s maybe worth making it clear to newer members/lurkers that there’s still a very clear outlook of warm, dry and settled weather.

The 06z GEFS mean at T+180 says it all. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

That is important because although I am very interested in weather and extremes, I don't have a clue how to read the models so I admit to being a lurker! I come on here because I get a better idea than I do from places like BBC Weather. There's a lot of pessimism at times like this and so much so that you'd think it was going to be terrible by next weekend which might not be the case but I've no idea!

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