Blowtorch or gentle fan heater? GFS 12z doesn’t actually have any 30s until right at the end of the week, and then only one day. 06z had 5 days in a row. Near continent isn’t that hot either.

None of this is to diss the output: it looks very 1995ish rather than the more typical shortlived blowtorch, mid 30s then breakdown we’ve had in the 2010s.

Ugh, I really hope not, but of course the weather will do what it will. I wouldn't be surprised to see an unpleasantly hot spell, TBH, considering that we had a decent easterly spell just over 3 months ago... these sort of blocky patterns can be stubborn to shift once they're in place. The "European Monsoon" was pretty much a nonevent this year too, which is unusual.

The ECM ensemble shows (for Reading, chosen as it's inland away from coastal grid points) a prolonged period of warm conditions:

https://weather.us/forecast/2639577-reading/ensemble/euro

These things have a nasty habit of being made warmer as the time approaches and I note, warily, that the 90th percentile is close to the 30C mark by next weekend.

Even the other 90th percentile is above 19C, which suggests a warm spell is pretty much odds-on. Still time for that to change (he says, hopefullly) but I doubt it will.

Yes, sustained warmth/heat combined with the long evenings - and I'm off work next week. Lovely stuff.

A few GEFS runs are suggesting the possibility of record breaking heat:

As long as it stays below 30, I can just about cope. It is sleeping at night that becomes an issue, and the tiredness builds up and people tend to have shorter fuses. With the football on as well, there will be more drinking and associated problems. Got a taster last night after the match

Unlike you I enjoy hot weather as much as cold weather. Therefore I'm more than happy for a blocking pattern to remain in place for the next 12 months. 

24 months. We want a 75/76 combo, only with 40 years of global warming to give it a little boost.

 I've seen a few people mentioning 76 in the last couple of days.

With global warming, it would give it more than a little boost!

If 75/76 were to happen again, the south and east in particular would be in serious trouble. I remember the stand pipes and water rationing of 1976. With significantly increased population since 1976 and higher temperatures, infrastructure would begin to collapse.

Aye I remember it well I fried an egg on the pavement that year no bull I also pulled wild oats from a corn field it was murder but some of the scenery was lovely.

Will never forget it - I was painting a car! Out came the thunderbugs.....

R

ECM 12z= summer 1995 all over again methinks.

looks at the depth and spread of heat on gm amazing Jires will be pleased with that looks to be a very hot spell coming fingers crossed

There are some similarities with that first June hot spell:

ECM 240:

1995:

I remember 1976 having a fairly good May and the first 2 weeks of June being hot. There was a breakdown on around the 17th to the 20th of June to dreary rain. I was in Nottingham that weekend, Connors was playing Nastase in a tennis final around the corner from where I was staying.The match was abandoned.  By Tuesday the 22nd things started to improve considerably, and by Thursday 24th unbroken blue sky and heat which felt like it lasted for weeks. The similarity to this summer? So far so good. Here's hoping.

Just hope we get clear sky's, currently heavily cloud laden (blanket clouding). Seems to be a feature this year, some reasonable temperatures but to much cloud. Hopefully next week with the high over us, we should get lovely blue sky's

Hopeful for some good clear nights, if the GFS verifies 

Nationwide hot spell do for me as I like to see everyone get a fair share of prolonged warm to hot weather.  Was common in the 80's hot spells so bring it on again than just SE 1 or 2 days hot spells.

Sensational output this morning. 

A UK anticyclone slowly migrates SE ushering in a hot and sultry SE’ly.

GEM is my favourite I think. 

Not this year - there was reasonably good recharge of the aquifers last winter. The 76 drought was preceded by a dry winter.

But I agree for the future - water supply provision isn't keeping pace with population growth.

Indeed it isn't - and what is the biggest driver of population growth?

I remember 1976 very well and I dread to think how the UK would cope with a repeat of that today - our investment in reservoirs has not kept pace with population growth and the southern aquifers could not cope with a repeat of that exceptional period.

Hard to beat GEM. ECM is almost identically good. GFS is the least satisfying but still ok.

Sensational stuff from GFS 00z

Flaming June living up to its name

🌡