The Weather Outlook

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2018 07:56:45

We could easily end up over 17c CET this month especially if the predicted Spanish plumes turn up . Think I've gone way to low.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

At this rate we could have all gone too low!    I’d be happy with that!  

Thanks for the tables GW. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Bertwhistle
10 June 2018 08:30:45

At this rate we could have all gone too low!    I’d be happy with that!  

Thanks for the tables GW. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Agreed; thanks for the data GW.

I'm not so sure though, Caz; it's dropping towards the 16 mark and with fresher weather due in Wednesday onwards, I reckon those nighttime temperatures will drop and we'll be sub-16 by the end of next weekend. Glad if I'm wrong though.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
10 June 2018 09:09:24

 

Agreed; thanks for the data GW.

I'm not so sure though, Caz; it's dropping towards the 16 mark and with fresher weather due in Wednesday onwards, I reckon those nighttime temperatures will drop and we'll be sub-16 by the end of next weekend. Glad if I'm wrong though.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Indeed Bertie!  We know how fickle our weather can be. Nothing should surprise us. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Gusty
10 June 2018 09:47:01

Thanks Simon. It looks like I'm having one of my better years in this competition. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

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ARTzeman
10 June 2018 10:34:23

Thanks for the charts. GW..  Nice to see them up front. At the beginning  of of the June  Thread start.. 

 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
10 June 2018 10:45:49

Met Office Hadley            16.2c          Anomaly        2.7c  Provisional To  9th.

Metcheck                         15.23c        Anomaly        1.09c

Netweather                      15.87c        Anomaly        1.78c

Canvey Island                  16.4c         Anomaly         2.0c

Clevedon Weather            17.6c         Anomaly         1.16c

Mansfield Woodhouse   14.6c         Anomaly         0.88c   

Peasedown St John      17.1c         Anomaly         0.75c

Treviskey Redruth       15.6c         Anomaly         0.3c.

 

Mean Temperature Of My 10 Watched Stations    16.34c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
11 June 2018 10:43:02

Met Office Hadley          16.2c.        Anomaly       2.7c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                       15.26c       Anomaly       1.11c

Netweather                    15.92c       Anomaly       1.83c

Alton                            16.6c         Anomaly       -0.93c

Clevedon Weather         17.8c         Anomaly        1.36c

Mansfield Woodhouse    15.2c        Anomaly         -0.18c

Peasedown St John       17.4c        Anomaly          1.05c.

 

My Mean Temperature Of My Watched 10 Stations.  16.51c.     




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Stormchaser
11 June 2018 13:40:53

The GFS 06z was one of the most positive runs on offer in recent days for settled and warm to very warm conditions across most of England and Wales.

The raw numbers give me a CET estimate of 15.8 to 16.2*C up to 25th.

 

Given that ECM keeps bringing the troughs to the NW into play more, this figure could be seen as optimistic (if you like warmth) - but on the other hand, GFS often underestimates the temperatures by 1-3*C in my experience (I've been tracking this for about a year now); frequently enough that the overall CET may be underestimated by as much as a degree Celsius for a given predominant weather pattern.

It would be great if this could be proven in some way, but the weather pattern by which the temps occur inevitably deviates too far from what GFS predicts by 4-6 days range for any meaningful comparisons to be made.

 

Anyway, I'm seeing enough hints of finer weather in general for the later stages of the month that around 16*C still seems a reasonable bet to me at this stage. I'd not mind being too low though .


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Hungry Tiger
11 June 2018 14:15:10

The GFS 06z was one of the most positive runs on offer in recent days for settled and warm to very warm conditions across most of England and Wales.

The raw numbers give me a CET estimate of 15.8 to 16.2*C up to 25th.

 

Given that ECM keeps bringing the troughs to the NW into play more, this figure could be seen as optimistic (if you like warmth) - but on the other hand, GFS often underestimates the temperatures by 1-3*C in my experience (I've been tracking this for about a year now); frequently enough that the overall CET may be underestimated by as much as a degree Celsius for a given predominant weather pattern.

It would be great if this could be proven in some way, but the weather pattern by which the temps occur inevitably deviates too far from what GFS predicts by 4-6 days range for any meaningful comparisons to be made.

 

Anyway, I'm seeing enough hints of finer weather in general for the later stages of the month that around 16*C still seems a reasonable bet to me at this stage. I'd not mind being too low though .

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Same here James. I've gone for 16.0C


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Whether Idle
11 June 2018 17:38:29

The GFS 06z was one of the most positive runs on offer in recent days for settled and warm to very warm conditions across most of England and Wales.

The raw numbers give me a CET estimate of 15.8 to 16.2*C up to 25th.

 

Given that ECM keeps bringing the troughs to the NW into play more, this figure could be seen as optimistic (if you like warmth) - but on the other hand, GFS often underestimates the temperatures by 1-3*C in my experience (I've been tracking this for about a year now); frequently enough that the overall CET may be underestimated by as much as a degree Celsius for a given predominant weather pattern.

It would be great if this could be proven in some way, but the weather pattern by which the temps occur inevitably deviates too far from what GFS predicts by 4-6 days range for any meaningful comparisons to be made.

 

Anyway, I'm seeing enough hints of finer weather in general for the later stages of the month that around 16*C still seems a reasonable bet to me at this stage. I'd not mind being too low though .

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Presently Im of the view that the cool down from around 16.3 will be shortlived and that my guesstimate of 16.39 will be too low.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2018 17:39:14

 

Same here James. I've gone for 16.0C

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Same here and I really wouldn’t mind being too low. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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ARTzeman
12 June 2018 11:28:28

Met Office Hadley           16.2c        Anomaly         2.7c. Provisional to 11th. Been 16.2c for the last 4 Days.

Metcheck                        15.34c      Anomaly        1.20c. 

Netweather                     16.03c      Anomaly        1.94c

Cheadle Hulme              17.2c        Anomaly         1.84c

Mansfield Woodhouse     15.2c       Anomaly          -0.15c

Peasedown St John        17.6c       Anomaly          1.20c.

 

My Mean Temperature Of My Watched 10 Stations  16.62c.              

 

 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
13 June 2018 11:11:49

Met Office Hadley              16.1c.         Anomaly      2.5c. Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                           15.22c        Anomaly      1.07c       

Netweather                        15.93c        Anomaly      1.84c

Alton                                16.4c          Anomaly       -1.13c

Cheadle Hulme                 17.1c         Anomaly        1.74c

Clevedon Weather             18.0c         Anomaly        1.56c

Mansfield Woodhouse         15.2c        Anomaly         -0.15c

Peasedown St John          17.5c         Anomaly        1.15c

 

 Mean Temperature Of My Watched 10 stations    16.45c.    

     




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
14 June 2018 11:55:48

Met office Hadley            16.1c.        Anomaly       2.4c. Povisional to 13th.

Metcheck                         15.34c       Anomaly       1.20c

Netweather                      15.93c       Anomaly       1.84c

Canvey Island                  16.2c         Anomaly       -1.84c

Darwen                           17.9c        Anomaly        2.04c

Hexam                            15.6c        Anomaly        1.06c

Mansfield Woodhouse       15.5c        Anomaly        0.15c

Peasedown St John          17.6c        Anomaly        1.25c.

 

Mean Of My 10 Stations 16.6c.         




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
15 June 2018 11:15:01

Met Office Hadley          16.1c.       Anomaly        2.4c. Provisional to 14th.

Metcheck                       15.33c      Anomaly        1.18c

Netweather                    15.98c      Anomaly        1.89c.

Canvey Island                16.2c       Anomaly        0.42c

Alton                             16.2c       Anomaly        1.33c

Mansfield Woodhouse     15.3c       Anomaly        0.05c

Peasedown St John        17.5c.      Anomaly        0.15c.

 

Mean Of My 10 Watched Stations   16.21c

         




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
15 June 2018 11:25:19
Should stay about the same or fall a tad after today, then tumble somewhat over the weekend before picking up again. Feels like next week is really the key to whether we can manage a 16C+ CET for the month. We need a few soupy nights with minima in mid to high teens.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
ARTzeman
16 June 2018 11:26:30

Met Office Hadley          16.0c.        Anomaly        2.2c.    provisional to 15th. 

Metcheck                       15.31c.      Anomaly        1.16c

Netweather                    15.93c       Anomaly        1.84c  

Alton                            16.3c        Anomaly         1.23c

Canvey Island               16.4c        Anomaly         0.22c

Cheadle Hulme              16.8c       Anomaly         1.44c

Clevedon Weather          17.8c      Anomaly         1.36c

Darwen                         17.3c      Anomaly         1.44c

Hexam                          15.0c      Anomaly         0.46c

Mount Sorrel                  15.6c      Anomaly        0.12c

Mansfield Woodhouse   14.9c      Anomaly        0.45

Peasedown St John      17.5c      Anomaly        0.15c

Treviskey Redruth        15.4c      Anomaly        0.1c.

 

Mean of 10 Stations  16.3c  

      




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Hungry Tiger
16 June 2018 14:06:12

Met Office Hadley          16.0c.        Anomaly        2.2c.    provisional to 15th. 

Metcheck                       15.31c.      Anomaly        1.16c

Netweather                    15.93c       Anomaly        1.84c  

Alton                            16.3c        Anomaly         1.23c

Canvey Island               16.4c        Anomaly         0.22c

Cheadle Hulme              16.8c       Anomaly         1.44c

Clevedon Weather          17.8c      Anomaly         1.36c

Darwen                         17.3c      Anomaly         1.44c

Hexam                          15.0c      Anomaly         0.46c

Mount Sorrel                  15.6c      Anomaly        0.12c

Mansfield Woodhouse   14.9c      Anomaly        0.45

Peasedown St John      17.5c      Anomaly        0.15c

Treviskey Redruth        15.4c      Anomaly        0.1c.

 

Mean of 10 Stations  16.3c  

      

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Half way through the month and to be on 16.0C Not bad going at all.


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



ARTzeman
17 June 2018 10:44:43

Met Office Hadley            15.9c.       Anomaly       2.1c.  Provisional to 16th.

Metcheck                         15.27c      Anomaly       1.12c

Netweather                      15.87c     Anomaly        1.78c

Mansfield Woodhouse    15.3c        Anomaly        -0.5c

Peasedown St John      17.3c       Anomaly        0.95c

Treviskey Redruth     15.0c        Anomaly       0.0c.

 

Mean Of 10 Stations 16.3c.             




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2018 11:32:03

 

Half way through the month and to be on 16.0C Not bad going at all.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

 

I wonder if the second half of the month will be lower than the first half.  I know June can be a mixed month so perhaps that wouldn’t be unusual. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2018 11:33:41

Met Office Hadley            15.9c.       Anomaly       2.1c.  Provisional to 15th.

Metcheck                         15.27c      Anomaly       1.12c

Netweather                      15.87c     Anomaly        1.78c

Mansfield Woodhouse    15.3c        Anomaly        -0.5c

Peasedown St John      17.3c       Anomaly        0.95c

Treviskey Redruth     15.0c        Anomaly       0.0c.

 

Mean Of 10 Stations 16.3c.             

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Art, is that ‘provisional to 16th’?


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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johncs2016
17 June 2018 11:49:55

Art, is that ‘provisional to 16th’?

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I have just looked at that Hadley page myself on the Met Office website and from that, I do agree that Arty's info would have been correct if he had stated that it was provisional to the 16th, rather than the 15th.

However, I'm sure that he'll probably just put that down to being just another "senior" moment  as he has done in the past.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Ally Pally Snowman
17 June 2018 11:57:26

Art, is that ‘provisional to 16th’?

Originally Posted by: Caz 

 

It is the 16th.

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2018 12:00:51

I have just looked at that Hadley page myself on the Met Office website and from that, I do agree that Arty's info would have been correct if he had stated that it was provisional to the 16th, rather than the 15th.

However, I'm sure that he'll probably just put that down to being just another "senior" moment  as he has done in the past.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

  Ahh, well I know how that feels!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2018 13:55:51
It's on 12.7C (-0.3C) here, up to today

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