Coldest winter for 100 years?

Press reports on winter

There is already a lot of speculation about the weather prospects for winter 2013/14 in the United Kingdom and the headline in a widely read tabloid newspaper today is, ‘Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November’.  This headline is not based on quotes or forecasts from TheWeatherOutlook (TWO).

Seasonal forecasting in the UK is currently as much an art as a science. Computer models which try to give broad brush insights into how the weather may develop over the coming months do exist, but the skill level they offer for this part of the world is low.

Long range forecasts are freely available on TWO but no claims for their accuracy are made. These are issued in icon and discussion format. The ultra-long range icon forecasts use data from the CFSv2 seasonal forecasting model and are updated every day. The seasonal discussions are issued in late November, February, May and August.

The discussion forecasts take data from seasonal forecasting models into account but also other factors. These include pattern matching, solar activity, pressure patterns such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and trends in recent seasons. On this latter point it is notable that colder winters in the UK tend to come in clusters. It’s also very important to remember that the relationship between these factors and the UK weather is thought to be weak or even non-existent by some people.

As well as the long range forecasts TWO Buzz provides regular comment and discussion. This sometimes includes opinions on the longer term prospects and what the latest output from the computer models could be suggesting.

The TWO discussion forecast for winter 2013/14 will be issued in late November with an initial thoughts article being made available on October 16th.


Issued 12/10/2013

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