GFS Evaluation - Part 4

GFS evaluation experiment - Part 4
Down to t+72 hours ahead and by now the details of the forecast should start to become clearer. There is still time for further changes to become apparent, and in particular the track of the expected rainfall maybe expected to vary. Although the variance may not be huge in global terms, it can make an enormous difference to the actual weather experienced. For example, rainfall tracking 50 miles further south maybe nothing in global terms but it makes a huge difference to people living in that area!

12z charts generated on 17/09/2007

Temperature(C)

Rainfall rate (mm/hr)

Wind speed (km/hr) and direction

Finally, here's a link to an image showing the synoptic set up expected.
//www.theweatheroutlook.com/imagescopy/2007092012_12z_t72_synoptic.png

Summary
The general picture remains consistent with an unsettled flow across the UK, however, the rainfall does appear to be tracking slightly further south again on this run. The main area of rain at the forecast time is now across Wales and parts of western England. During the last few runs the rainfall risk has been moving further south with heavier rain also expected.

Issued 23:00, 17/09/2007

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GFS Evaluation - Part 4

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