Temp summary; warm weather advancing on a broad front N-wards, week 1 to the Alps, week 2 to the Baltic; the UK esp the SE is on the edge of the latter improvement. Continuing v dry in area from Spain to S England to Baltic with rain either side week 1; still dry-ish in these areas week 2 but some rain, and the rain to the N peps up (esp NW Scotland).
GFS Op; Pressure remaining high for the UK until Tue 10th (Atlantic LP gets rather close to W Scotland Thu 5th), then a broad trough from the N covers all UK Thu 12th before HP rebuilds from the SE 1030 mb Holland Tue 17th (SW gales for the Hebrides)
FAX is less optimistic and shows slack pressure for the next few days with small shallow LPs and fronts randomly affecting the UK
GEFS: mean close to norm throughout, affected by op & control which are on the warm side around Fri 6th and cooler around Sat 14th. Small amounts of rain but quite frequent, and rather heavier in NW later on.
ECM (mostly yesterday's 12z) runs to Tue 10th and like GFS to that point but no hint of the HP collapsing as GFS has it.
Originally Posted by: DEW