Remove ads from site

MRazzell
28 April 2022 10:26:52


 


I must admit I'd feel happier getting wet weather now. I'm sure there is no scientific evidence but dry springs make me nervous about the forthcoming summer as I like them dry and warm. 


If anybody can show us that we can get dry springs, followed by dry and warm summers then please feel free to give examples 


Originally Posted by: GezM 


 


Although its not your neck of the woods 2020 in the SE would take some beating. Sunniest spring on record, bone dry (although this wasn't great for the garden), 3rd hottest day ever recorded that summer and a major heatwave in August. Very regional but goes to show whats possible. 2022 spring seems like another dry one down here so far.


 


Spring - https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2020/06/02/a-local-look-at-the-record-breaking-spring-and-may-weather/


Summer - https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2020/09/01/a-dull-and-damp-august-brings-summer-to-a-close/


 


Matt.
Ally Pally Snowman
28 April 2022 11:59:59

Hints of a bit of a warm up from about the 4th May. 


 



 


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
28 April 2022 16:29:41


Hints of a bit of a warm up from about the 4th May. 


 



 


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Those temperatures we been having lately are way much colder than New Year Day temps and when you see those 16C on 1st Jan we should be looking at mid-20's often by now but alas turn out much colder than the winter temps done.  

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 April 2022 20:12:43


Hints of a bit of a warm up from about the 4th May.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


A lot warmer than when I looked this morning


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
idj20
28 April 2022 22:13:59


Hope this doesn't end up like 2007.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 



Didn't Spring 2020, which was dry, warm and often sunny (and we couldn't fully enjoy it as we were in hard lockdown at the time) lead to a pretty decent Summer?


Folkestone Harbour. 
Jiries
29 April 2022 06:07:51




Didn't Spring 2020, which was dry, warm and often sunny (and we couldn't fully enjoy it as we were in hard lockdown at the time) lead to a pretty decent Summer?


Originally Posted by: idj20 


It was poor summer follow by much poorer summer last year due to raw cold cloudy days under 18c all the time outside over 30C days. Was worried this Horrible Pressure will stay for long time now finally kick out with some rain follow by warming temps to average for this time of year with sun again. This last 3 days remind me or Horrible Cloud pressure set up last year and really dont want a repeat again this year.  

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
29 April 2022 07:07:16

At last some warmth approaching the UK and W Europe, from the SW, but still a way off in week 2 while week 1 shows little change. Cool weather still sticking around the E Baltic & W Russia in week 2. In week 1 dry from N Spain up through S England to Sweden with some rain on either side incl W Scotland; in week 2 damper everywhere but mostly N & E Britain and Norway.


Jet forecast somewhat more active than forecast, esp later on - a stream near Shetland Tue 10th for a few days then around the Channel


GFS Op - pressure staying quite high over UK to Thu 12th with occasional shallow troughs drifting across (Sun 1st, rather deeper on FAX, & Thu 5th) but dropping out in favour of a broad trough Iceland - W Eire - Spain Sat 14th from which emerges LP centred W Isles 985mb Sun 15th


GEFS - mean temp starting a little below but then close to norm through to 14th with op & control very much on the warm side for most of the time from Tue 10th. In most places, rain in small bursts at first, more general from 10th; but more continuous in far N & W


ECM - similar in general terms to GFS but HP a little further W which could give locally cool NE-lies on N Sea coasts about Fri 6th


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gusty
29 April 2022 15:16:39

Its all a bit boring isn't it ? 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Chunky Pea
29 April 2022 17:22:54

I've been looking at these maps a long time and I don't think I've ever seen such a slacked out pressure gradient over this greater region than what is forecast for this coming Sunday morning:



I think sailors and fishermen will have a smooth time of it this weekend. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 April 2022 07:04:30

Temp summaries - still a couple of cold patches in W Russia and Turkey but generally an advance of higher temps on a broad front from W France to Poland and Ukraine. Week 1 dry from Spain to Baltic and rain on either side; week 2 the dry area squeezed out back to Spain as the rain extends from N & S - and a new dry patch over the Black Sea.


GFS op - pressure generally high over UK to Tue 10th but an Atlantic trough then slowly moves across the UK finally clearing to the E Sat 14th in favour of brisk W-lies (but not a firm forecast - last night HP was shown as hanging on near W Scotland and pushing the trough further N)


GEFS - mean temps rising to above norm, at their warmest around 10th, small amounts of rain sporadically throughout in S but more continuous and heavier in NW


ECM - has small LPs embedded in the general area of HP Mon 2nd (Wales) Wed 4th (Scotland) & Sun 8th (NI) but then develops the HP more strongly at end of run Tue 10th off W Scotland (blocking any approach from Atlantic like last night's GFS) with NE-lies for S England


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
30 April 2022 07:08:41

Note - daily reviews for the next two weeks and a bit are likely to be sporadic as I shall be on holiday. Posting is going to depend on breakfast arrangements in the various B&Bs and on connectivity in Scottish glens


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 May 2022 05:48:19

Temp summary; warm weather advancing on a broad front N-wards, week 1 to the Alps, week 2 to the Baltic; the UK esp the SE is on the edge of the latter improvement. Continuing v dry in area from Spain to S England to Baltic with rain either side week 1; still dry-ish in these areas week 2 but some rain, and the rain to the N peps up (esp NW Scotland).


GFS Op; Pressure remaining high for the UK until Tue 10th (Atlantic LP gets rather close to W Scotland Thu 5th), then a broad trough from the N covers all UK Thu 12th before HP rebuilds from the SE 1030 mb Holland Tue 17th (SW gales for the Hebrides)


FAX is less optimistic and shows slack pressure for the next few days with small shallow LPs and fronts randomly affecting the UK


GEFS: mean close to norm throughout, affected by op & control which are on the warm side around Fri 6th and cooler around Sat 14th. Small amounts of rain but quite frequent, and rather heavier in NW later on.


ECM (mostly yesterday's 12z) runs to Tue 10th and like GFS to that point but no hint of the HP collapsing as GFS has it.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
johncs2016
01 May 2022 09:55:15


Hope this doesn't end up like 2007.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


It wouldn't surprise me if we finally got that much needed rainfall during the summer, within the very time of year when those of us who are looking for a decent summer (i.e. one which is hot, dry and sunny) don't want to be seeing it.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Hungry Tiger
01 May 2022 13:44:46


Temp summary; warm weather advancing on a broad front N-wards, week 1 to the Alps, week 2 to the Baltic; the UK esp the SE is on the edge of the latter improvement. Continuing v dry in area from Spain to S England to Baltic with rain either side week 1; still dry-ish in these areas week 2 but some rain, and the rain to the N peps up (esp NW Scotland).


GFS Op; Pressure remaining high for the UK until Tue 10th (Atlantic LP gets rather close to W Scotland Thu 5th), then a broad trough from the N covers all UK Thu 12th before HP rebuilds from the SE 1030 mb Holland Tue 17th (SW gales for the Hebrides)


FAX is less optimistic and shows slack pressure for the next few days with small shallow LPs and fronts randomly affecting the UK


GEFS: mean close to norm throughout, affected by op & control which are on the warm side around Fri 6th and cooler around Sat 14th. Small amounts of rain but quite frequent, and rather heavier in NW later on.


ECM (mostly yesterday's 12z) runs to Tue 10th and like GFS to that point but no hint of the HP collapsing as GFS has it.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Sounds nice there.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Remove ads from site

Ads