This thread is for all comments, discussion, and analysis of temperatures in the UK during May, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest-running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own backyard.
For those taking part in the competition, all CET predictions for May should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Please do not post them directly into the thread.
Historic CET summary for May
1981-2010 11.66C (30 years)
1991-2020 11.90C (30 years)
2001-2020 12.02C (last 20 years)
Last year May was above average at 12.5C. The prior year was slightly below average with 11.2C. 2017 and 2018 were both very warm and above 13C. We have had a few cold May's in recent years, 10.8C in 2015, 10.4C in 2013, and 10.7C in 2010.
Here is a chart of the May CET for all years since 1961
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page
Direct link to a larger version of the chart
Current model output
850s start the month below average. After the first week there is a lot of scatter and the ENS mean is around average.
GEFS 850s
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM (de Bilt) also looks cool although there are a number of much warmer runs in the second week of May
http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-mjj-v1.pdf
The 3-month outlook is still a 35% chance of warmer than average conditions (which is 1.8x normal and the same as last month). Cooler conditions are 0.5x normal probability. Didn't exactly work out well in April!
For May there is a 55% chance of near-normal temperatures and 30% chance of above-average temperatures.
Lower than average SSTs around the UK at present favour cooler than average conditions.
Edited by moderator
01 July 2021 09:26:57
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Reason: Not specified