Could more date records fall on 7th and 8th August?

The latest televised Beeb forecast offered a general 35 in the SE at the end of the week.

The Met) suggests 36 Friday and 35 Saturday.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpsvg3nc#?date=2020-08-02

The current records I think are 34.0 and 34.2, both from 1975 (unless this Torro record has been updated since).

http://www.torro.org.uk/hightempsyear.php

Interesting week ahead.

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Just noticed Kew is given 36, 35 and Northolt 35 both days, so not just Heathrow.

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Just pop these on for you. Some rrecord maxes in neighbouring European Continent. Notice most of them are recent as well.

 

Some weather factoids for you. Whilst we're in the midst of a hot spell. Worth listing the highest temps recorded here and in the neighbouring European Continent.
Highest temps.


UK. 38.7C July 25th. 2019. Cambridge University Botanical Gardens.


France. 45.9C June 28th. 2019. Gallargues-le-Montueux.


Portugal. 47.4C August 1st. 2003. Amaraleja, Beja.


Spain. 47.3C July 13th. 2017. Montor, Cordoba.


Belgium. 41.8C July 25th. 2019. Begijnendijk, Flemish Brabant.


Holland. 40.7C July 25th. 2019. Gilze en Rijen.


Germany. 42.6C July 25th. 2019. Lingen, Lower Saxony.


Italy. 47.0C June 25th. 2007. Foggia, Apulia.


Cyprus. 45.6C August 1st 2010. Nicosia.

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MetO now showing 36°C for Heathrow and Kew both Friday and Saturday.

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Here are the successive daily maxes from August 2003, for comparison purposes. From the 3rd:

30.5, 32.5, 33.9, 35.7, 31.6, 32.3, 36.0, 38.5, 34.7, 32.0.

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The 'dip' (if it could ever be called such) just happens to coincide with our two predicted hottest days. Most fortuitous. But at 5 and 6 days out, not by any means a sure thing.

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Look East have downgraded it - Forecast 29C for Friday and 27C for Saturday. Not sure what to make of that.

 

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The models seem to have moderated the heat somewhat, 850s only around 15-16C rather than the 20C+ of yesterday. 

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And yet, MetO and Beeb still standing squarely by earlier predictions.

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Arpege latest has 33c in SE on Thursday.

 

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GFSP looks potentially record breaking on Friday and Saturday.

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Arpege seems to do pretty well with max temps so will be interesting to watch what it has once Friday and Saturday come into range. 

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MetO holding on to a 36,35 this morning for both Kew and Heathrow.

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Met office going for 37c on Friday. Info on their Twitter feed.

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Latest Arpege now has 29c Thursday and 35c Friday

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37C two Fridays in a row? I'll believe that when I see it. I think the Met have gone the other way, usually they are too overcautious with max temps ahead of the event but the models only seem to be going one way and that's reducing the intensity of the heat this week. I reckon 34-35C will be the limit. But still a date record quite likely!

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Are the temps likely to be slightly lower this time due to the fact that the heat is concentrated in a smaller geographical area eg South East?

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Seems a bit high at the moment but we'll see.

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Arpege only going for 34C on Friday. Expect those Met Office numbers to start falling soon if they haven’t already.

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48 hours on and MetO still going for 36 and 35 at Heathrow and Kew, but what you say wouldn't surprise me Rob.

Even so, a 34+ could still give a DR, particularly on Friday where it's only 34.0 to beat. Arpege is interesting, modelling those 34s briefly but over the Weald rather than W London. 

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MetO: 37 now forecast for Heathrow and Kew on Friday.

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Not sure where they are getting those numbers from. Last Friday they were forecasting 33-34C when the models were going with 36-37C, and now they are going for 37C when the models are only maxing out on 34!

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  Normally the Met Office App shows subdued temperatures at that range (8c too low for Heathrow 9c/10c too low for Leeds, 7 days before 31/7/20), rising nearer the day, but not on this occasion.    Maybe they have finally realised and tweaked the App and over-compensated?

 

 

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BBC Red Button 5 day forecast now downgrading the upcoming warm/hot spell in S.E. Thursday has gone from max. of 30c to 28c and Friday from 34c to 33c. Mind you these figures seem to change almost by the hour so difficult to read much into them.

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Arpege now has 37c Friday

 

Thursday 29c

Saturday 30c

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