Could be just me but after reading The Times at brekkie I came away thinking corona virus is sailing off into the distance and it is time to learn lessons and prepare for the future. Does the UK (and other European) government privately think the worst is now past us regardless of social distancing and lockdown policies? I wonder whether there is a suspicion in some quarters that this virus will be self-limiting in its spread for some unknown reason? My understanding was that second wave is likely and it may well be even more destructive than the first. Time will tell.

Its all relative. Because of increased awareness, hygiene, social distancing etc, "the second wave" will be mitigated, health services will not be overwhelmed. We will just have a steady stream of corpses, the only difference being, you can have a proper funeral if Grandad croaks in the Autumn

In the US yesterday deaths rose by 2000 in one day and new cases have plateaued, yet no one batted an eyelid. We have become desensitised to death now.

In this country we will probably see a daily death rate of 100 -200 all summer and it wont even make the news

Can you imagine a terrorist attack happening every day killing that many people!

 

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 Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.

I doubt it

Even in America, Fauci says only 20% of New Yorkers have been exposed, and less than 5% in most other States. We must have similar numbers. There are still plenty of potential hosts for the virus

 

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Do you think that because a) the social distancing measure b) the virus has run its course?

I think both of those reasons are flawed. 

I don’t think the epidemic in care homes will stop at all unless drastic changes are made. More likely so many get infected and/or die until they achieve their own pseudo herd immunity. 
In the wider community, why wouldn’t we have a second wave is the better question. I think a second peak is likely in London by late June and rest of UK by mid July.  And then we’re back to square one, all because we didn’t wait until contact tracing was in place. 

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 Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.

I'd agree with most of this where now as things have gone on for most the 2m rule is engrained now. There will be more use of masks which will stop some infection also. There will still be pockets of outbreaks, and infection for those who 'just don't get it', but I feel we are more geared up as long as we 'stay alert' and keep to the rules. Saying that, you do feel this thing will be on a slow burner picking off people if there is no vaccine. No spikes but no end to it, we are all truly going to have to adapt as man has done throughout history.

We have to.

The new rules seem very much open to interpretation. You are allowed to "meet" one other person who is not in your household, as long as you stay 2 metres apart.

So 2 metres is the minimum threshold for "meeting" someone, but what is the maximum distance? Most of my wife's friends have children, so if they go out they will be with their kids. Can one person leave their family group and go and meet one person from the other group in the middle, 2 metres apart, while the others stay further apart? If so, how far do they have to be apart not to be classed as "meeting"? After all, both family groups are permitted to be out in the park, while staying 2 metres apart from other people.

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I'd agree with most of this where now as things have gone on for most the 2m rule is engrained now. There will be more use of masks which will stop some infection also. There will still be pockets of outbreaks, and infection for those who 'just don't get it', but I feel we are more geared up as long as we 'stay alert' and keep to the rules. Saying that, you do feel this thing will be on a slow burner picking off people if there is no vaccine. No spikes but no end to it, we are all truly going to have to adapt as man has done throughout history.

We have to.

Bear in mind that for most people, the virus is pretty mild or even asymptomatic.

Those at most risk are the groups we already know about. Nothing which can be done about the elderly, except that they must take whatever precautions they can. Those in the at risk group because they have pre-existing conditions, will have to be shielded and there needs to be a massive public information campaign about healthy living and having a normal BMI.

There will always be some people who suffer badly or die, who are not old, who don't have pre-existing conditions and who are apparently healthy - the medics need to examine these patients to see why they suffer from the virus so much worse than the majority of young and apparently healthy people. Other than that, people should go about their normal business, but with enhanced awareness and with as much social distancing as is practical.

 

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The Times is talking about a house price correction of 20% to 30% or more - negative equity looms for many.

 

But good news for first time buyers!  

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I think what is going on is that the Government are trying to find a navigable channel between full lockdown and some semblence of a pickup in the economy such that the NHS is able to cope and also that we don't eventually bankrupt the economy.

With 90-95% at least of the population still vulnerable till a vaccine is available, I don't think anyone is undr any illusions as to the risk of a second wave if we take our eye off the ball too much

I think you’re absolutely right.  It’s about finding a balanced way through and making cautious progress.  Personally I think the virus will be self limiting but I’m no virologist, so it’s just wishful thinking. However, I do still think taking our eye off the ball is too big a risk.  We’ve come too far to throw it all away on a whim!

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But good news for first time buyers!  

Not if they have been made redundant or think they may about to be. 

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 Do you think that because a) the social distancing measure b) the virus has run its course?

I don't think the virus has run it course at all, it's likely that more than 90% of us are still susceptible to it. I think social distancing, the potential test-trace-isolate strategy, better personal hygiene and summer weather are all factors which make a big second surge unlikely IMO. If the TTI strategy is done correctly, we might even avoid smaller increases to the number of new infections and deaths.

I think you’re absolutely right.  It’s about finding a balanced way through and making cautious progress.  Personally I think the virus will be self limiting but I’m no virologist, so it’s just wishful thinking. However, I do still think taking our eye off the ball is too big a risk.  We’ve come too far to throw it all away on a whim!

It just shows how lucky and cosseted we are in today's world. For 99.9%+ of human history, plague and pandemic were a fact of life and life had to continue as usual. We are some of the only humans ever to have existed who have taken it for granted that we and our families are unlikely to be carried off by infectious diseases.

Sadly I think this epidemic might prove to mark the end of that golden age. Between overcrowding and poor hygiene in many parts of the world and increasing antibiotic resistance, I think infectious viruses and bacteria will start to regain the upper hand over modern medicine in the decades to come.

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I don't think the virus has run it course at all, it's likely that more than 90% of us are still susceptible to it. I think social distancing, the potential test-trace-isolate strategy, better personal hygiene and summer weather are all factors which make a big second surge unlikely IMO. If the TTI strategy is done correctly, we might even avoid smaller increases to the number of new infections and deaths.

 That seems to be a widely held view at the moment. As a pessimist I'm not convinced. Hopefully I'm wrong.

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  Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.

I don't quite get this argument, if only 5-10% of the population has been infected here vs say only 1% in Cyprus, I don't see how this makes a material difference with regard to a significant second wave. Also countries that rely on tourism would be fcked anyway as they depend on what is happening in origin countries. It would be be even worse for countries like Cyprus, Greece etc. to have a bad health outcome and then have no tourism at all as well. At least now they can try and have tourists from other 'safe' countries.

 Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.

I think there’s some logic in that and it could be a case of nature wiping out the weakest.  

We’ve had a nationwide wave but not everyone has had it or been hospitalised by it.  I know of two households where one person has suffered badly, yet no one else in that household has.  One person died from it in hospital yet none of his household had symptoms.  He was a pub landlord as well, yet we didn’t get a spike in cases.  He did have underlying health problems. 

It seems to suggest that, although I wouldn’t call it herd immunity, I’d say some are less susceptible and simply won’t get it or won’t suffer from it.  As we’ve been in lockdown we’ve had less exposure to it, so that will have shielded some but I think a good number of those who would have suffered, already have.  Take care homes for example. 

This makes me think a second wave, while still deadly for some, would see fewer cases in general.  Just my musings of course but it’s a possibility, amongst many!  

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Regarding the number of "excess deaths" I imagine that would vary a lot depending on how you measure it. The overall death rate as I understand it was running at about double the long term average in April, but I would expect that if/when the virus is controlled we could well see a dip in the death rate below the LTA, because, in rather crude terms, the virus took out many of the people who would have died later in the year.

It's a bit of a moot point talking about "excess deaths" because of course in the long run we are all dead! And of course this is no comfort to anyone who has lost valuable time with elderly relatives. Just me pondering the nature of statistics and what they mean...

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It's a bit of a moot point talking about "excess deaths" because of course in the long run we are all dead! And of course this is no comfort to anyone who has lost valuable time with elderly relatives. Just me pondering the nature of statistics and what they mean...

Absolutely. Early on I mused about the possibility of calculating aggregate lost years caused by this virus. For example, if 3 people lose 10 years and 2 people lose 5 years the aggregate would be 40 years.

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Not if they have been made redundant or think they may about to be. 

If that's the case then it wouldn't matter either way.

For those who see a house as a home, it'd be good news. Less so if you're a borrow-to-let landlord (as opposed to a cash-rich buy-to-let landlord).

 

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 Whether by incompetence or design i think countries which have had a bad first wave of Covid -19 are probably on their way to Herd Immunity and a second wave will be far less devestating. Countries which have basically shut the virus out , till a vaccine arrives remain naive and very at risk.I was listening about Cyprus this morning and they have sone very well in terms of cases but i do not see how they progress as their main business is Tourism.

You're not going to get herd immunity from just 10% of the population with antibodies. That is just wishful thinking.

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Regarding the number of "excess deaths" I imagine that would vary a lot depending on how you measure it. The overall death rate as I understand it was running at about double the long term average in April, but I would expect that if/when the virus is controlled we could well see a dip in the death rate below the LTA, because, in rather crude terms, the virus took out many of the people who would have died later in the year.

It's a bit of a moot point talking about "excess deaths" because of course in the long run we are all dead! And of course this is no comfort to anyone who has lost valuable time with elderly relatives. Just me pondering the nature of statistics and what they mean...

Not quite, excess mortality is considered the gold standard statistic when it comes to health crises or natural disasters etc. It measures deaths caused both directly and indirectly and it allows for international comparisons, with the caveat that it takes several months before reliable data is widely available. 

 

Well, I've taken the blood sample (needed two needles as the first finger stopped bleeding) and sent it off to the lab via Special Delivery.

The bad news is that it wasn't a 5ml tube, it was a 10ml one... and you had to fill it up. Messy, as I've not done anything like it before, but not especially painful - two small pricks and a slight throbbing afterwards.

Meanwhile the village - Leysdown - was the busiest it's been in weeks, with queues outside the bakery and general stores. The post office was fine, though, and after seeing the alarm on the postmistress' face I mentioned it was an antibody test, not a "have I got it now" test. (Having a big purple "covid-19 test" label on the enevelope wasn't a great idea, unless it's meant to ensure it speeds through the system faster).

Assuming it's a viable sample, I should have the results on Thursday. I'll post them here when I get them.

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