Lorenzo might not technically be a hurricane when it is forecast to hit the west coast of Ireland, but the NHC forecast chart shown or linked to in previous posts does show it as having hurricane force winds (74-110mph) at the time (2pm Thurs). Maybe locations on the west coast of County Mayo, on the Mullet Peninsula or Achill Island, could report record-breaking wind speeds. This surely is something remarkable, isn't it?
By the time that Lorenzo is forecast to leave the east coast of Ireland (2am Fri), its wind strength is shown to have reduced to gale/storm/violent storm force (39-73mph), which could still be very disruptive. Does anyone else have information about how Met Éireann are calling this one? [ETA] While composing this post Lionel has answered this question. Thanks Lionel! You're not the only one watching how this turns out. [End edit]
From reading a post by DEW in the MO thread, I understand that the NHC forecast model has the highest wind speeds for England out of the range of model output, so I wonder whether maybe that model tends to err on the side of forecasting higher wind speeds because of its specialization in forecasting hurricanes. But Great Britain seems to be only protected from damaging winds by the very rapid reduction in intensity of the storm. No way am I suggesting that the pros (MetO et al.) are wrong in forecasting this, but it could be very interesting to watch.
By the way, where is everyone? In UIA talking politics? There's some interesting weather going on ...
Edited by user
02 October 2019 12:56:59
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Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl