I don't think GFS 06Z is model output - the crayon was given to the biggest cold ramper going and that is the result of his scribbling.

You could not imagine the 6Z verifying, because it would usher in severe cold and heavy snow and in the last few days of November too.

I don't think you could see the 6z verifying but it is another run that shows the possibility for some genuine early season cold and that the trend for HLB is firming up. Certainly some excitement in here over the next 3 or 4 days

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You could not imagine the 6Z verifying, because it would usher in severe cold and heavy snow and in the last few days of November too.

Why not? We had considerably more severe cold and heavy snow in the last few days of November only 8 years ago. -18C in Wales on November 28 2010, IIRC.

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The 06z mean remains fairly steady around or slightly above -5

First glance at the 0600 GFS ensembles suggests the operational tends towards being a cold outlier in the longer range (lower) resolution period. So while not impossible, I'll reserve judgement on that particular operational run just at the moment.

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Although an easterly wind will bring colder air to the UK next week, it's important to remember that the North Sea is still relatively warm at around 7-13C.

This means that air travelling over it from mainland Europe will be warmed, moderating the cold somewhat. (image: @KNMI) pic.twitter.com/Cgcfe299IQ

— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) November 15, 2018

Some mouthwatering eyecandy on offer from the GEFS, if these were to verify then a repeat of Dec 2010 of sorts could well be on the cards. Must remember to keep feet firmly planted on terra firma. 🙂

Still can’t help thinking this is all happening a month too early.
Sure it’s fairly similar to 2010 but that was a 1 in 100year event

This reminds me of one of our greatest snowstorms: 25 Nov 2005. That one had the lot: hundreds of motorists stranded overnight, thousands of children trapped in schools, RAF airlifts ... But because it was centred on the West Country, and Cornwall in particular, it's been virtually scrubbed from the memory. Nov 2005 was an Arctic maritime airmass, which I presume is also the case in the 6z GFS chart above.

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if this cold spell is going to be something special im sure MR BRIAN will call it like he did back in 2009/10. terry scholey did mention the word RETROGRADE for this month which can be read here https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html 

these charts are look good hopefully for once we might see a good winter evan so all the summer people got a outstanding summer think its our turn for the coldies

This reminds me of one of our greatest snowstorms: 25 Nov 2005. That one had the lot: hundreds of motorists stranded overnight, thousands of children trapped in schools, RAF airlifts ... But because it was centred on the West Country, and Cornwall in particular, it's been virtually scrubbed from the memory. Nov 2005 was an Arctic maritime airmass, which I presume is also the case in the 6z GFS chart above.

I remember this. Took 6 hours to get from Bodmin to St Austell.

 

Andrew

Par

Yep. Always worth bearing in mind, for when people claim this sort of set-up is wasted in November.

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ICON 12z sends the high SE wards similar to ECM which cuts off the flow to the coldest air                                        

Variations on the recent theme from the 12z GFS op run so far. It is starting to be quite a consistent theme.

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look away cold fans.... less influence from northern blocking on this latest GFS run. still kinda there though, just more unsettled than cold.

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also - can i just draw attention to the fact this is the same model thread that we had in August. We were going through threads 1-2 a week back in March.

Lets see how quickly this thread lasts for

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also - can i just draw attention to the fact this is the same model thread that we had in August. We were going through threads 1-2 a week back in March.

Lets see how quickly this thread lasts for

Agree- it would be nice to sing in the cool-down with a new thread. Chances?

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12z ens

Certainly clear signs in the ensemble data set from the 12z GEFS albeit a bit more marked in the north

Aberdeen

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres 

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ECM suggesting the first pulse of cold air could be just an appetiser. Check out that cold pooling at T240!

 

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ECM has a Scandi high will the energy undercut?? Or will we be stuck in no mans land - great to see nonetheless