Another warm month in April albeit it is ending on a somewhat chilly note. It looks like things will revert to type in early May (after the Bank Holiday) with high pressure to the east bringing settled and dry conditions. How long will it last though?

Please post your predictions for April in this thread. Entries can be made until 23:59 on the 1st (Monday evening) without penalty.

Historic summary for May

1971-2000 11.3C

1981-2010 11.7C

1997-2016 12.0C

Since 1998 13 out of 19 May's have recorded a CET more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean. Warmest was 2008 with 13.4C. Coldest recent May was 2013 with 10.4C. Back in 1996 we had just 9.1C. Last year the May CET was 12.6C.

Current model output

850's reverting to average or above for the early part of May. T2m temperatures at De Bilt look fairly average taking the ensemble mean. But a general warming trend with several runs indicating the possibility of something very warm.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=205&bw=&lat=51.7522&lon=-1.2560&zip=

https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim

Met Office contingency planners outlook

Not yet available

Analogues

If we look at years where the CET mean has been more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean in each of Feb, Mar and Apr we have the following for the May CET:

2014 May CET 12.2C
2007 May CET 11.9C
2002 May CET 11.8C
1999 May CET 12.9C
1997 May CET 11.5C
1992 May CET 13.6C
1961 May CET 11.0C

So this shows that the May CET is typically above average where the previous 3 months have all been above average. Not necessarily by much but there are a couple of very warm May's in the list. So May looks odds on to be above average and certainly above 11C. Current model output would suggest the first half of the month could be very warm.

I fear the worst as this long dry spell comes to an end. I think a large propensity of Northern blocking will prevail with southerly tracking jet leading to cold and wet. I fear a sub 10c month and very wet.
I will go for 9.9c.

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A month of two halves with a cracking finish, I'm going for 11.8

Cheers

Ian

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11.6°C for me. A pretty bog standard May.

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10.7 degrees for me please.

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Going High      12.62c for me please.

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11.7c for me plz

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12.1C for me please 

11.4 please

Mixed Month, Good Dry Sunny Spells but with a Niggling NE'ly at times to balance the books.

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I think we're due a warm one

I will go for 13.0C

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12.5c Please

11.7 please

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11.96C

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12.35 C please GW.

Put me down for 12.0c please

11.0c

11.3 please

11.9c for me please

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12.2 please

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I'll go for 12.5c please. 

I'll be in the heat of Cuba for the first half of May. 

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