Having viewed the full output now I think I'm in need of a lie down, possibly the coldest snowiest charts since December 2010. Now for the tricky bit, will the weather follow the output. 😂😂😂

When will the ENS roll out? Might lessen (or worsen) the misery.

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Most of us know its an uphill battle for these charts to verify, but maybe just one time it may happen.

Be so funny if the OP had support

 

I saw MM mention the Westerly QBO killing us .....but as Rob has mentioned we had a Westerly QBO in Nov and Dec 2010 and look what happened

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A flick through the GEFS up to +168 shows considerable( but not overwhelming) support for a similar evolution to the op.

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A flick through the GEFS up to +168 shows considerable( but not overwhelming) support for a similar evolution to the op.

Indeed. They look very promising. 

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http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_372_preciptype.png?cb=856

Rare; even the Isles of Scilly under deep snow. 

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Not convinced the jet profile is of that much help for a sustained cold spell?

 

Energy out west, south of Greenland needs to go UNDER the block here...I don't expect it to...

 

You were saying?

 

 

 

 

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http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-180.png?6 

Ensemble 'mean' at +180 !

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http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122906/gens-0-1-180.png

Control ok, not as good as the op but nothing can match that!

 

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General upgrades from GFS, but the Euros remain a concern. Hopefully we are not being set up for another massive fall as  so often happens

 

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http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122906/gens-0-0-204.png

White -30 colours over greenland

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There really isn't much between the OP and Control

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I'm increasingly confident about the January call I made in the TWO winter forecast. Hopefully the outcome will be "one louder" in the words of Spinal Tap. 

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General upgrades from GFS, but the Euros remain a concern. Hopefully we are not being set up for another massive fall as  so often happens

EC15 this morning is not without interest post day 10.

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Only perts 3 5 8 9 10 16 19 (so 7 out of 21 if you include the control) spoil things at 180. Most of the others continue the northerly recharge, with one easterly already in place at 180.

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To join the legendary 'That ECM' we now have 'That GFS' 😉
More runs needed.

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The major difference with the 0600 GFS this morning is in that the blocking high associated with the first cold surge retrogresses north westwards instead of sliding away SE. This changes the whole dynamic of the model output theron. Somebody mentioned comparison to Dec 2010 yesterday with ref to HP orientation. The crucial period therefore is around next Wednesday where we reach this tipping point. This is coming into the more reliable now and IMO this is where we need to look for ODDS ON deep cold

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122906/gens-0-1-240.png

Just about the perfect winter chart for the UK. pure filthy weather porn

Sadly, it can only go downhill from here!

 

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Looking at the temp profiles in the farther reaches of FI this has to be one of the better examples in recent years of weather porn, with -17 creeping down to the East Midlands.

To join the legendary 'That ECM' we now have 'That GFS' 😉
More runs needed.

I agree Neil. I'm waiting to see what the UKMW 6-30 day outlook reads like.

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