.....and now a glimmer of hope from the ECM at 240 hours

.....and now a glimmer of hope from the ECM at 240 hours

Yes, I'm not surprised as quite often in these setups the GEM and ECM show similar scenarios. I'd say at ten days out it is of interest value only however it does tie in with the Met Office extended outlook.

Based on recent output and Met Office comments I wouldn't be overly surprised to see a nice little northerly on the 12z ECM run. We'll see soon enough I guess.

Well done! Unless you had a heads up!

Massive noreaster setting up?  We've been here before with day 10 Ecm charts but you never know.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

 

Well done! Unless you had a heads up!

 

No, not at all - just based on past experience (and I admit I was drafting my "oops, bad call by me" post in advance just in case. 

 

No, not at all - just based on past experience (and I admit I was drafting my "oops, bad call by me" post in advance just in case. 

It's quite often been the case that GEM and ECM Ops mirror each other IMO, so I wasn't surprised to see ECM go for something similar into FI

 

It's quite often been the case that GEM and ECM Ops mirror each other IMO, so I wasn't surprised to see ECM go for something similar into FI

Yes indeed you're right, although I may have mentioned that above too. 

.....and now a glimmer of hope from the ECM at 240 hours

Interesting. Let's hope we see something similar in tomorrow's ECM runs.

 

Yes indeed you're right, although I may have mentioned that above too. 

Last few frames of the north Atlantic 850hPa temp profile on the ECM:

Hopefully a set up something like this would aid the development of a polar low or trough feature down the line.

Good trends tonight but still a long way before we can get confident about a colder outcome.

Things are heading in the right direction though. 4 days ago there was talk of extended zonality, a couple of days ago we moved towards a more blocked set up with a UK high resident, now the block is showing signs of moving to the west of the UK.

The trend is to move the block ever northward and westward...lets hope this trend continues and we end up with a decent Greenland block. 

Got a good feeling about tomorrow's output.
By the time everybody returns to work in the new year I think we'll be in the throws of a major pattern change.
Let the storminess blow through and the excitement will follow!

 I'm feeling it too.

 

 I'm feeling it too.

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hopefully a cracker? 

ECM MSLP spread for a data point located between SW Iceland and the southern tip of Greenland:

ECM MSLP spread for a data point located between SW Iceland and the southern tip of Greenland:

Steve is feeling a cream cracker too