All those cold ensembles /gfs control and ecm ETC We all spent ages analysing and discussing was a waste of time really. Ensembles ...in fact all models have behaved very badly this winter. I just feel sorry for all on here. If we were to have cold and prolonged cold it should have happened in January when most of Europe (mostly southern and eastern) were in a deep freeze, we were very unlucky to be on the milder side of the blocking. I guess Brian's winter 16/17 forecast was as accurate as it could be in saying that there is a chance of cold weather around mid January. Just a shame it never really materialised and we were very unlucky as always.s
It's frustrating, not to mention all time consuming - especially to find out that every northerly has failed and easterly.
I really don't think it's worth taking any notice of the gfs RUN beyond 96hrs now - because even if they all point to cold, it will still never materialise and it's been the case all winter really. So what's the point of discussing the models if they always flip!? I would have thought we were in for some chance with the SW and SSW end of Jan and beginning of Feb but even now this looks unlikely. - Perhaps we need to see more milder runs in the GFS ensembles and eventually it will turn cold - Just the opposite.
Obviously, I expect moderations and downgrades or upgrades in the models but the fact that all haven't just been downgrades - they have been complete flip-flops makes it all that more frustrating really.
The Express is funny. I bet many reading that would be expecting a big freeze with blizzards and -11c from Mid-month when it's going to be very mild or warm mid-month now.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com