Met Office Hadley       4.7c.    Anomaly    -0.4c.     Provisional   to   4th.

Metcheck                   4.76c.  Anomaly    -0.23c.

N-W                          5.45c.  Anomaly     0.36c.

Mount  Sorrel             4.93c.  Anomaly    -0.17c.

My  Mean                   4.4c.   Anomaly     -2.1c.       

Met Office Hadley       4.7c.    Anomaly     -0.6c.     provisional  to 5th.

Metcheck                   4.32c.  Anomaly     -0.68c.

N-W                          5.13c.  Anomaly      0.68c.

Mount  Sorrel            4.62c.   Anomaly     -0.48c.

My  Mean                  4.3c.    Anomaly      -2.2c.

Surprised it's stayed at 4.7c; expected a fall toward 4c.

The CET IMBY must be below 3c; we've had an air frost 4 of the 5 nights in December so far, with a max of 6.4c this month. Nice and SEasonal, but I'm stuffed with a really heavy cold.

I suspect an error has occured here.

For the 4th the figure was 4.7C with an anomaly of 0.4C

So the 5th at 4.7C with an anonaly of 0.6c looks wrong

(Unless the warmists have got hold of the historical dataset and adjusted it upwards again!!!) .  LOL  LOL LOL

The Hadley figures are correct

Thanks GW. It just looks very odd.

It looks as though the mean temps are OK but the recording of the anomalies between the 5th and 6th in the above posts has gone a bit wrong

Is the Hadley anomaly based on LTAs for the given point in the month as opposed to the whole month? That would explain the change in anomaly despite no change in the CET.

Yes exactly. The anomaly quoted is not a comparison against the long run mean for the whole month but against the mean for the number of days elapsed so far in the month. So this figure will change every day. 

Also bear in mind the figures use the 1961-1990 mean not more recent 30 year averages.

I checked the calculations and the anomaly quoted is correct.

I realised that but I still assumed that something had gone wrong with the anomaly data (at least as posted here) as it said data for the 4th and 5th December was

4th MTD mean 4.7 anomaly -0.4

5th MTD mean 4.7 anomaly -0,6

which would mean the average 1961-1990 MTD temps were 5.1 up to 4th and 5.3 up to 5th

This is a big change for 1 day over a long term average and going in the "wrong" direction for this time of year

However, if GW has checked it out that's good enough for me

The 30 year mean for each of the first 5 days of December using the 1961-1990 figures is as follows and yes they do go in the "wrong" direction for the time of year.

1  4.8
2  5.2
3  5.1
4  5.4
5  5.7

The mean for the first 4 days to 2 decimals is 5.12C and for the first 5 days is 5.24C.

The 2014 mean for the first 4 days is 4.73C and for the first 5 days is 4.66C.

That makes the anomaly for the first 4 days 0.39C and for the first 5 days 0.58C.

Global Warming.

Thanks for the info again. From your first reply I assumed it was based upon the averaged month to date figure otherwise it just doesn't seem to make sense.

Have you got the CET daily averages datasets available as a link? .Or do you keep the  61-90 averages as a daily figure?

I have got all the differently sorted monthly means back to the start of the CET dataset, but have not seen the daily ones listed anywhere. Would it be possible for you to provide a link?

Thanks again for your reply.

The daily means, maxs and mins are at

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html

It is fairly easy to download the datasets and reload them into Excel or Access to analyze (remember to clear any -999 entries as this is used to identify short months < 31 days or missing months in the current year-to-date )

Ah....... *light pings in head*... so basically in the 1961-90 avgs, the first of the month is an average of just 30 data points, so an outlier on those dates has more effect, and the 30th is an average of 900 data points and less prone to movement...?

Well... This is late in the day for it but todays figures are....

Met Office Hadley  4.6c.     Anomaly  -0.5c. Provisional to  6th

Metcheck              4.59c.   Anomaly  -0.40c.

N-W                     4.75c.   Anomaly  -0.36c.

Mount Sorrel         4.83c.   Anomaly  -0.27c.

My Mean               4.2c.     Anomaly  -2.3c.

Met Office Hadley 4.7c.    Anomaly     -0.5c.   Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck            4.46c.   Anomaly     -0.54c.

N-W                   4.97c.   Anomaly     -0.14c.

Mount Sorrel       4.60c.   Anomaly     -0.50c.

My Mean             4.4c.    Anomaly     -2.1c.  

"I'm.... dreeeeeaming.... of a greeeeen Christmaaaass...." 

Actually, it's a win-win situation. Either win the CET comp or get snow!  
(Sods law I'll lose the CET comp and the snow will avoid Berkshire and fall heavily on Folkestone and St. Helens) 

Ah, so the much reviled Mad'un reveals his true identity... 

Met Office Hadley       4.5c.     Anomaly      -0.5c.     Provisional to   8th.

Metcheck                   4.25c    Anomaly      -0.75c.

N-W                          4.8c.     Anomaly      -0.31c.

Mount Sorrel              4.36c.   Anomaly      -0.74c.

My Mean                    4.2c.    Anomaly       -2.3c.      

Met Office Hadley         4.8c.     Anomaly   -0.3c.    Provisional   to 9th.

Metcheck                     4.55c.   Anomaly   -0.45c.

N-W                            4.86c.   Anomaly   -0.25c

Mount   Sorrel              4.66c.   Anomaly   -0.44c.

My    Mean                   4.4c.    Anomaly    -2.1c.

Looking good for you Darren at the moment ..can these 'newly touted intriguing signals' towards the end of the year present themselves and bring down the CET sub 4c in those last few days ?

"I'm.... dreeeeeaming.... of a whhiiiitttteeee Christmaaaass...." 

Met Office Hadley     4.8c.    Anomaly     -0.2c.  Provisional  to  10th.

Metcheck                 4.63c.  Anomaly     -0.37c.

N-W                        5.03c   Anomaly     -0.08c.

Mount Sorrel            4.77c.  Anomaly     -0.33c.

My   Mean                4.6c.   Anomaly      -1.9c.

Looks like we're on for a solid 5c number this month!