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"As of today there is 38/90ths of winter remaining. That's barely past half way."Actually, that's less than 1/2 way. 2/5ths more like
38/90ths remaining! That means we have less than half remaining, so we’re past the half way mark!
Certainly wasn't snowless around here. Fleet pond was frozen for a couple of weeks IIRC and that is at 60m asl.Anyway the latest GFS ensembles certainly show a significant cooldown on the cards for early February, and not even the most ardent mildies can argue that the first half of February is "too late" for decent cold weather down south! Mean pressure anomaly chart at T372 - the trend is definitely there and there are some proper old-school easterlies among the ens.
Certainly wasn't snowless around here. Fleet pond was frozen for a couple of weeks IIRC and that is at 60m asl.Anyway the latest GFS ensembles certainly show a significant cooldown on the cards for early February, and not even the most ardent mildies can argue that the first half of February is "too late" for decent cold weather down south!
Mean pressure anomaly chart at T372 - the trend is definitely there and there are some proper old-school easterlies among the ens.
Can I suggest we add 'true south' to the famous TWO annoying phrases list? Is Chingford in the 'true south'? I am keen to know.
As for annual (and tired) February debate, the date of 2 February delivered the best snowfall in London in recent memory – the great Groundhog Day Thames Streamer Snowstorm of 2009!
Not if you consider that, astronomically speaking, spring doesn't begin until 21 March...
(runs for cover)
Certainly some good options showing up later on in the run (~5th Feb) even for down here (officially as far south as you can get):
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=379
If the trend continues over the comming runs, we might start to get some nice looking FI charts to ponder over.
Not if you consider that, astronomically speaking, spring doesn't begin until 21 March...(runs for cover)
So I won't remind you of the many March cold spells, nor of March 2013 specifically.As of today there is 38/90ths of winter remaining. That's barely past half way. I'll accept that the next 5 days can be added, but that still leaves well over one-third.But of course you can trot out 'the sun is getting stronger now', which of course it never did before the modern era...
So I won't remind you of the many March cold spells, nor of March 2013 specifically.
As of today there is 38/90ths of winter remaining. That's barely past half way. I'll accept that the next 5 days can be added, but that still leaves well over one-third.
But of course you can trot out 'the sun is getting stronger now', which of course it never did before the modern era...
Can I suggest we add 'true south' to the famous TWO annoying phrases list? Is Chingford in the 'true south'? I am keen to know. As for annual (and tired) February debate, the date of 2 February delivered the best snowfall in London in recent memory – the great Groundhog Day Thames Streamer Snowstorm of 2009!
I prefer ‘Deep South’ - that way knowing people with eleven fingers is more explicable 😎
Sadly too far away to be taken seriously yet. it will happen at some point though.
Late July would be nice!
Pressure charts and how they get to FI aside, the consistent theme we are seeing now is that eastern europe looks likely (at the moment) to go into the chiller at some point over the next few weeks. Some real deep cold popping up on some runs now.This has been quite absent this past winter so far. Cold shots have mostly arrived from the north west for most of northern Europe as has been a fairly consistent pattern for this winter.
Perhaps we are seeing the potential for an overall change to the pattern as we go into the final 3rd of Winter?
12z op has HP over the UK from Saturday (27th) until the end of the run- about 12 days' worth. That could bring its own problems, but even at this dreary time of the year, surface saturation would be reduced.
I think maybe you're thinking of another spell? Looking at the Farnborough data for that month (March 2013), there was only one day with a mean temperature below freezing, and that was the 11th with a max of +0.7C and a min of -2C.There were three days when snow fell; the 11th and the 12th when Farnborough recorded no measurable precipitation, so these must have just been flurries. The main snow day was 23rd which in Arborfield was much like yesterday morning; wet snow struggling to stick and almost making the grass look white. It certainly wasn't enough to make a snowman, or even a snowball.I know places further east, Kent for example, got some decent snow. But for Arborfield (and that's only 6 miles from your house) it was one of those disappointing spells in terms of decent snow, much like December 2010 when we also got short changed, and in fact the whole of this winter so far! Compare that to April 2008 when we had nearly 5 inches of snow on the 6th.
I think maybe you're thinking of another spell?
Looking at the Farnborough data for that month (March 2013), there was only one day with a mean temperature below freezing, and that was the 11th with a max of +0.7C and a min of -2C.
There were three days when snow fell; the 11th and the 12th when Farnborough recorded no measurable precipitation, so these must have just been flurries. The main snow day was 23rd which in Arborfield was much like yesterday morning; wet snow struggling to stick and almost making the grass look white. It certainly wasn't enough to make a snowman, or even a snowball.
I know places further east, Kent for example, got some decent snow. But for Arborfield (and that's only 6 miles from your house) it was one of those disappointing spells in terms of decent snow, much like December 2010 when we also got short changed, and in fact the whole of this winter so far! Compare that to April 2008 when we had nearly 5 inches of snow on the 6th.
I have the photos (with date and location recorded as taken on an iPhone). It was definitely all white on March 24th and stayed subzero all day up at Caesars Camp near Farnborough. That's the last occasion my daughter has been able to play in proper lying snow (other than in the Alps!)
I may be wrong about the pond staying frozen but not about the snow.
The GFS 12z op this evening couldn't be more different to what the same run produced yesterday.
For me, FI starts at the beginning of next week just now. UKMO 12z seems to agree wrt pressure gradually rising from the SW.
Yep there's a few Creasterlies, Beasterlies and Mehsterlies lurking in the 12z GEFS.
I have the photos (with date and location recorded as taken on an iPhone). It was definitely all white on March 24th and stayed subzero all day up at Caesars Camp near Farnborough. That's the last occasion my daughter has been able to play in proper lying snow (other than in the Alps!) I may be wrong about the pond staying frozen but not about the snow.
Let's not forget that Caesars camp and nearby hills are not far 200m above sea level, and with the exception to the highlands of Hampshire/ Surrey borders where some of the hills approach 300m most places are well below 200m. I expect that most of Hampshire away from the hills to the north are probably below 100m.
Hmm. Following on from the 6z GEFS, the 12z GEFS brings a silly number of easterlies and Scandinavian Highs. I don't think I've ever seen so many at the far end of the run as there are on tonight's 12z output! It's a remarkably strong signal that far out and I'll be watching with interest over the next few runs to see if it's maintained.EPS also had around 40% of its members bringing an easterly spell (as opposed to just a day or two) to our immediate east from around day 10 onwards. Whatever the models have picked up on, it seems an unusually strong signal.
I think the mean chart at T+384 says it all.