Well at least nobody need feel foolish; if there's one thing this competition proves it's that it's not a reasonable expectation to be able to reliably predict a whole month in advance with an error of less than 1.5*C, although with a good bit of luck you might manage most of the months in one of the years.
Think of it this way for example; the change to chillier weather that we're now seeing could easily have taken place a week ago, in which case the CET movement would have been down instead of up, and we'd probably have finished somewhere in the 11s.
Long-range guidance had it occurring around that time, but without it having been quite so balmy mid-month. Extremes like that are tough as nails to spot coming in advance although I'll admit that some experimental ways of looking at the MJO and Kelvin Waves do on reflection appear to give some suggestion of anomalously TM-orientated air flows across the UK. Even after more than a decade of increasingly intense involvement in meteorology, I'm still learning!
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On