By locking-in a broad trough west of Iberia in the 8-16 day range and with even better orientation than the 00z for pumping warm air over to us from well south, the GFS 06z raw numbers lead to a final CET estimate of 13.1 to 13.6*C. That's roughly 2.5 to 3.0*C above the LTA!
ECM takes a more high-pressure dominated approach to achieving flows from the south, so it may not be quite so balmy, indeed surely by night it must be cooler (not got time to examine that US site for details).
Still - odds are shortening on October coming in at least 2*C above the LTA. It even has a shot at beating the September CET.
This begs the question - how often historically has the October CET been higher than the September CET?
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email
[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On