First look at Autumn 2017 here:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3880&title=Autumn+2017

How do others view the prospects?

This is purely guesswork on my part, but one thing that stands out to me is how dry this year has been (mostly across southern areas). We've been in quite a blocked setup for about 11 months now and I get a feeling that this may break sometime soon.

My guess is that we might see this pattern break through the autumn, so we could see quite a wet one this year. I think we could potentially see one, maybe even two very wet months (probably October and November). Saying that, it has also been quite a while since we've seen a wet September, so who knows? If I was to give a verdict, I'd say:

September: warm, dry and settled.

October: warm but very unsettled.

November: mild and wet.

Sounds good there Scott - I would be happy with an autumn like that.

I certainly wouldn't say "no" to it either, Gavin.

This is purely on my guesswork but I think Autumn 2017 will be warmer than normal.

I suspect September will be warm with a lot of dry, settled and sunny conditions - particularly in the S and the E. I think there'll be some ET cyclones skirting to the N of UK, drawing in some hot air from Iberian Peninsula.

I suspect October will be of mix bag but warm. I think it'll be dry overall in the E, but wet in the NW. Wouldn't be surprised to see some high temperatures, perhaps exceeding 25 C in a few spots.

A bit too early to say what November be really like, but I think it'll be another warmer than average month.

After long dry spells, I'm expecting some wet months in the near future; I think December could be one of them or it could be this August.

Terry Scholey 30 Day Forecasts

Rest Of Summer & Autumn 2017 "Sneak Peek"

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Interesting update from Terry.

and of topic ,,,, whats the bets we are in for a crap winter again... wet/mild   mild/dry    cold/dry.   or like last year. no one had a clue.   autumn. is mostly always dry above avarge temps .or   indian summer like weather... dry, lack of rain,  ect ect

The schools aren't back for another 3 weeks or so but I think summer started a few weeks ago up here. So far it seems to be typical for autumn. Grey, breezy and cool. I'm sure the next 10 months of the season should be similiar.

I reckon a very wet and very cold autumn ahead overall. Only reasoning I have is that such an autumn is long overdue and that the current warm and dry trend this year so far must come to an end at some point.

What warm, dry year? It’s been utterly revolting and the last thing that’s needed after this disgusting cool, wet summer is a wet autumn.

Have no doubt that is exactly what we’ll get though but can’t see it being cool, except maybe the first part of September. Something similar to the abject horror that was Autumn 2014 probably.

Can’t go wrong with predicting the worst case scenario these days. That said it’ll be a tough ask for even a poor autumn to end up as dismal and depressing as this utterly embarrassing excuse for a summer.

Apologies Richard, I was being a little bit 'imby' with my post. I do realise that much of Scotland has had a very wet summer so far, something we are well used to here in Ireland too, but this year seems a just a little bit different over here, in that it has been consistently warmer than average since the start of 2017, and apart from two short, but notable wet spells, it has been very dry on this side of the pond overall. I think we will pay for this one way of the other, because we always do..in the end.

Mentioned this is in a post earlier but if you take the monthly rainfall values for this year at face value, they are actually not that dry apart  from April for England and Wales. 

Your post a few days later  - see - http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=917906#post917906 

shows that you've got a better reason now

Warmer and drier than the norm would suit me and as others mostly suggest, this is probably the most likely. Generally speaking and when compared to 20-30 years ago, summers finish later, winters finish sooner and spring begins earlier. All good stuff and the warmer and drier it becomes will get a big thumbs up from me

The traditional autumns which I remember are ones where we would be seeing our first widespread frost at some time during October with daytime highs of around 5C or 6C already being recorded by the time that we get to the beginning of November. We haven't had an autumn like that for a long time though, although I do remember one not all that long ago (that might have been around 2008, although I'm not exactly sure of that) when cold northerly winds from the Arctic brought some very early snowfalls during October to high ground in Scotland.

The way things are looking just now, I don't think that we will be seeing anything like that this year either. Furthermore, the autumn along with the spring, has tended to be one of the driest periods and I can remember us having our driest September on record here in Edinburgh, just a few years ago. That drier than average pattern of weather has been around during recent springs and autumns even on occasions, where the models have indicated that something different might happen on this occasion, even when the confidence in that has been relatively high.

Although we had such a wet June here in Edinburgh, the rest of the summer hasn't really followed suit (although we did have that very wet start to this month just yesterday). That in combination with the fact that it was so dry for so long before the start of this summer, shows that there is probably still quite a big rainfall deficit to be made up, even after that really wet June. However, I don't see that happening this autumn to begin with at least. The Azores High has been a real pest in recent years, and has failed to build right across the whole country for any length of time during this summer, at the very time when we always want it to, more than at any other time of the year.

However, it wouldn't surprise me if the Azores High then finally decided to build across the country and deliver some decent weather once summer is over (not that we've actually had much of a summer just recently, anyway), and we have gone into the meteorological autumn. For those reasons, I see September as being a nice month with a lot of warm and sunny weather, making that an extension to our summer, which is far more like summer than what we have just had. I can then see this pattern going into October as well, although it might get a bit wetter towards the end of the month as the Atlantic starts to prepare itself for its almost annual winter onslaught.

That then takes us into a mild, wet and often stormy November which will then take us into that traditionally wet and stormy start to the winter. This means that it will be warmer than average and probably sunnier than average overall. I also think that it will be drier than average overall, even with that wetter end to the autumn, but I have a feeling that we might have to wait well into November, or possibly even into the winter itself (if we actually get any sort of winter, that is) for the first real frost of the season.

Can anyone tell me when the Arctic autumn/winter period usually begins - I assume it is quite soon? 

I heard yesterday that a harsh winter is in store. I heard it from the tv in the other room and so do not know the source. Birds have and are migrating earlier than normal - apparently. No white Christmas and a warm spell to come late September/early October but the winter in general is to be cold and what was described as 'harsh'.

That would never surprise me - The signs of autumn are well and truly established here. The wildlife and vegetation look like the end of September.

Taking into account the latest set of indices (ENSO, QBO, Solar cycle, August synoptic matches, North Atlantic SST profile and Arctic Sea Ice state), my prognosis for the early Autumn is as follows:

September:  A dominant W-SW flow for much of the month, with some occasional High Pressure ridges in the mid Atlantic giving us some coolish NW spells.  Overall a rather cool September with rainfall a little below average in most areas.

October:  Seems to be two possible scenarios for this month.  Either we see quite a dry October with High Pressure just to the south or over the UK,  or Low Pressure becomes dominant over Europe and near the UK giving us a wet month with northeasterly spells.   The proximity to the solar minimum this year could be the decider this time.  Out of the top 5 matches for this year, 1986 and 2007 were near/at solar minimum and they both led to a drier, HP based October.  The other matches, 1960, 1974 and 2004 were a few years away from solar minimum.  So on that basis, I would go for October this year being more likely to have below average rainfall, with High Pressure quite close to us at times.  Probably not as dry as October 2007 and 1986, but a lower chance of a wet month. Temperatures probably near normal for most, possibly a little above normal.

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Terry's autumn forecast is out.

Sounds quite seasonable.