GFS 12Z op markedly more unsettled than the majority tonight, bringing cooler temps and more rainfall. Happy that it's an outlier but wary it could be on to something and put the final nail in the coffin for anything settled this month.

As I'm a glass half full type of guy, I'm still pleased to see the majority of the 12z data going for a pressure rise from the 10th. Quite how long it'll last is of course up for debate. Still a few warm/very/warm/hotter solutions teasing us in FI, probably down to the orientation of the high when/if it parks over us.

More runs needed!

Or at the very least, hopefully another positive ECM this evening... 

That the biggest problem we never get it in summer time, HP always in a very wrong place and don't know what the reason why it cannot just move easily to be on top of us and then east that bring hot weather, that I used to see it in the past as it normal W-E flow for HP and LP systems.  

It seem very rare to see HP right over us in any summer month but easily done so in Autumn to Spring.  It been a very long while since I see a decent HP over us on the models since as far back in May and earlier on in the year.

Another question when many who like northern blocking to take place in winter because it bring easterlies but when I look at the models lately all I see that northern blocking are only bringing same SW to NW flow and not easterlies? because if that the case we would be having very dry, warm to hot easterlies for 3 weeks now.  Now I don't believe northern blocking does exist, jet stream does not exist because it not pushing any LP out of the way for 3 weeks now.

 

I'll whisper it (as it is very early days) but things look a good deal more settled by day 8-10 on the GFS and ECM output this morning. Of course at that range it is far too early to have confidence, but it is a step in the right direction. Before then, not much change.

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I'll whisper it (as it is very early days) but things look a good deal more settled by day 8-10 on the GFS and ECM output this morning. Of course at that range it is far too early to have confidence, but it is a step in the right direction. Before then, not much change.

It'll likely be the same thing that has happened in the last couple of years Michael; the weather will turn better just as the schools in Scotland go back in a couple of week's time!

As you say it is some way out, but the MetO outlooks have also been talking about a more settled spell by around mid-August so maybe, just maybe, the models are starting to pick up on something along those lines.

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I'll whisper it (as it is very early days) but things look a good deal more settled by day 8-10 on the GFS and ECM output this morning. Of course at that range it is far too early to have confidence, but it is a step in the right direction. Before then, not much change.

Yes, an improving picture within the 10 day range after all it is August.

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Yes, an improving picture within the 10 day range after all it is August.

Tenative signs of at least something a bit drier and warmer. 🙂

The 06z op continues the upgrade, with the HP that was previously modelled as collapsing south under a dipping jet retaining intensity and influence over our shores; here's the 180 so not FI:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_180_mslp850.png?cb=453

and the 216:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_216_mslp850.png?cb=357

Awaiting the full ENS roll-out; don't want the op to be an outlier

 

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Finally looking possible for an end to October and the start of August in about 10 days time.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Wales will still be cool, wet and windy though.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/11_330_850tmp.png?cb=132

Well, would you look at that in P11 on the 12z; that'll bring the basking sharks out. 24C uppers over Cornwall!

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Very nice ecm for the southern third of the UK. Settling down nicely at day 5. Better but still not perfect further north. Mid to high 20s in the South next week if ecm is right tonight.

 

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Both ECM and GFS are still suggesting a warm up from next midweek with high pressure building in from the West. That will suit me nicely as am off to Achill Island off Mayo on Saturday week. Refusing to get excited though as it could still all change!!

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Loughborough and Birmingham ems show a warming trend but no heatwave and fairly dry after early next week's trough has gone through.

 

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Both ECM and GFS are still suggesting a warm up from next midweek with high pressure building in from the West. That will suit me nicely as am off to Achill Island off Mayo on Saturday week. Refusing to get excited though as it could still all change!!

A very sensible approach to take, IMO. The memory of the sudden volte-face in the models three weeks ago just when it seemed that GFS and ECM were virtually in agreement about the beginning of a longer lasting settled spell in late July is still fresh in my memory.

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The models now removing the idea of a settled spell from mid next week with the trough to the East driving showers South across the UK, with the potential for barely mid-teens maxima by next weekend. 

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The models now removing the idea of a settled spell from mid next week with the trough to the East driving showers South across the UK, with the potential for barely mid-teens maxima by next weekend. 

I think it would be wise to wait and see what the ECM 12z has to offer before making any judgement, IMO.

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Just for balance, here is how the GFS and UKMO 12z runs differ as soon as T+144:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

UKMO seems to be making less of the trough to the east than GFS is doing at the same time. I think there was another GFS 12z earlier this week which seemed to make a big deal of the trough to the east, which it then dropped in later runs.

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Just for balance, here is how the GFS and UKMO 12z runs differ as soon as T+144:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

UKMO seems to be making less of the trough to the east than GFS is doing at the same time. I think there was another GFS 12z earlier this week which seemed to make a big deal of the trough to the east, which it then dropped in later runs.

That another thing about the so-called Jet-stream, if they do exist why they allowing the LP to reverse back to here?  What the problem of this LP cannot find a way out to Europe?  If the models are trying to bring them back then they are not reliable as they had been unreliable earlier this summer when they attempted to bring the unsettled weather for many times.  

As has been hinted at in the Met O mid range forecast, I'm hoping that 11 August will mark the transition back to a more HP dominated weather type for a while, after the LP dominance since 21 July countrywide. 

Whether  (A) This actually happens, (B) The HP can extend to benefit more than just the South and (C) How long any HP can hang on for, are very much open questions at this stage.

I fear that the North-south split which has been evident for the earlier summer, will re-emerge, though as I say, I hope that all Brits can enjoy at least some pleasant settled decent weather this August!

Anyway, here's the Met O 11 August chart, which could signal an improving picture:

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As has been hinted at in the Met O mid range forecast, I'm hoping that 11 August will mark the transition back to a more HP dominated weather type for a while, after the LP dominance since 21 July countrywide. 

Whether  (A) This actually happens, (B) The HP can extend to benefit more than just the South and (C) How long any HP can hang on for, are very much open questions at this stage.

I fear that the North-south split which has been evident for the earlier summer, will re-emerge, though as I say, I hope that all Brits can enjoy at least some pleasant settled decent weather this August!

Anyway, here's the Met O 11 August chart, which could signal an improving picture:

Indeed Phil.

The signal for an improvement from around the 11th has been consistent for a while now. How far north and for how long is up for debate.

In weather lore the saying 'long notice long pass' should hopefully hold true to give the UK a rather better August.

Peoples memories are strangely short. This 2 week unsettled spell in the south has now killed the perception of summer 2017. Up to until 21/7 is was an absolute stonker..you wouldn't believe that talking to people though.

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Still good signs from both GFS and ECM re high pressure building next week. How long it lasts is pure guesswork but most should see a definite improvement from the previous few weeks.....not heatwave though!

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Still good signs from both GFS and ECM re high pressure building next week. How long it lasts is pure guesswork but most should see a definite improvement from the previous few weeks.....not heatwave though!

Indeed but any ridging from the Azores doesn't look particularly strong so it could be a case of a few days of warm/dry weather for the southern half of the UK before LP makes its presence felt further south as time goes on. Hopefully I'm completely wrong ( as per usual ) and we see a lengthy warm summery spell. 😎