A warm start to summer overall although June was quite a mixed month. Cool start and end but very warm around mid month. Will July continue the generally warm theme?
We have seen some very different Julys in recent years, from very hot to cool.
Please post your CET predictions for July in this thread. Entries can be made until 23:59 on the 2nd (Sunday evening) without penalty.
Historic summary for July
1971-2000 16.5C
1981-2010 16.7C
1997-2016 16.6C
2013 and 2014 were very warm at 18.3C and 17.7C. 2006 of course saw the warmest July ever at 19.7C. Equally 2011 and 2012 were very cool at 15.2C and 15.5C. Last year was fairly average.
Here is a chart of the July CET for all years since 1961:
Current model output
850's looking generally average. T2m temperatures at De Bilt look average at best but with some runs hinting at warmer weather as a possibility as we move towards the middle of the month.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim
Met Office contingency planners outlook
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jas_v1.pdf
Suggests a finely balanced position between warmer and cooler than average conditions (which ties in with my pattern matching analysis below). The chart though does show a slightly increased probability of warmer than average conditions which is explained as being due to the fact that the planet is generally very warm at the moment and hence in the absence of any strong signal to shift things the warmer than average conditions may tend to persist.
Pattern Matching - JFF
The pattern matching for June was spot on suggesting a strong probability of a warm month.
If we look at July and consider years where all of the months from Feb to Jun saw the CET more than 0.5C above average then we have 2014 which saw the July CET of 17.7C and 2007 with a July CET of 15.2C. So very different outcomes there. 1992 was in the middle with a CET of 16.2C.
If we look at June's with a CET close to 16C then we have 2006, 2003, 1992 and also 2005 and 1982 are worth looking at. Further back 1970, 1960 and 1950 also fit the bill. These last 3 years all had a cool July. 1992, 1982 and 2005 saw an average July. While 2003 and 2006 had very warm Julys. So again a real mix.
Looking at which years are the closest match to 2017 I would say 1992 is the closest which saw a slightly below average July. Also 1960 is a very close match if you just look at the last three months (Apr - Jun). That year had a very chilly July.
So no strong signal this month. But on balance I would say the pattern matching slightly favours a July that is below average.
Edited by moderator
31 August 2017 08:46:29
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