Duplicated in error 

Matt Hugo Synoptic Guidance http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8178;sess=  Heat And Humidity Then Cooler Unsettled Early June.......

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 29 May 2017 to Wednesday 7 Jun 2017:

A very uncertain period, but the more likely scenario is for rather mixed conditions on Bank Holiday Monday and Tuesday, with showery outbreaks of rain, perhaps heavy and thundery, drifting in from the south, but also some brighter spells. Temperatures are likely to be down in comparison to the weekend, although it could stay rather warm and humid, especially in the southeast. Meanwhile, it will probably be cooler and fresher in the north and west, where we may see windier conditions. From Wednesday onwards, we will generally see a mixture of sunshine and showers, particularly across the northwest. However, we may hold on to drier, brighter and perhaps warmer conditions in the far southeast, although some thundery showers are possible.

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Jun 2017 to Thursday 22 Jun 2017:

Confidence is currently low through this period, though we are more likely to see changeable conditions continue through the early part of June. More settled weather may begin to dominate for a time towards the middle of June, bringing drier and brighter weather for many. Temperatures are likely to be close to normal at first, but may become generally warm, perhaps locally very warm for a time during mid June. By the latter part of June, there is a possibility of more unsettled conditions developing, with spells of rain at times, and temperatures returning closer to average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 30 May 2017 to Thursday 8 Jun 2017:

Initially fairly settled with dry conditions and some sunny spells on Tuesday. Then becoming more changeable with bands of cloud and rain pushing in from the west, weakening as they move eastwards. The south and southeast still at risk of further humid conditions and thundery outbreaks. Temperatures remaining rather warm. Remaining unsettled from the end of the week and through the remainder of the period with a northwest-southeast split. The northwest tending to see spells of rain or showers with some drier, brighter interludes. Generally drier and brighter further southeast, but with some humid, thundery spells still possible in the southeast. Becoming windy at times, especially over next weekend. Temperatures generally near normal, or rather cool, in the northwest and warm at times in the south and east.

UK Outlook for Friday 9 Jun 2017 to Friday 23 Jun 2017:

Confidence is currently low through this period, though we are more likely to see changeable conditions continue through the early part of June. More settled weather may begin to dominate for a time towards the middle of the month, bringing drier and brighter weather for many. Temperatures are likely to be close to normal at first, but may become generally warm, perhaps locally very warm for a time during mid June. By the latter part of the month, there is a possibility of more unsettled conditions developing once more, with spells of rain at times, and temperatures returning closer to average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Sounds like less emphasis on a full breakdown after the weekend, with warm and humid conditions hanging on at least in the SE.

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Sounds like less emphasis on a full breakdown after the weekend, with warm and humid conditions hanging on at least in the SE.

 

Indeed. GFS 6z is very good for the SE on Sunday, 24-25c and no rain throughout. UKMO update suggests their models are suggesting similar. 

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Indeed. GFS 6z is very good for the SE on Sunday, 24-25c and no rain throughout. UKMO update suggests their models are suggesting similar. 

Warm air hangs on the for SE, but I wouldn't rule out some thunderstorms as well for the S and SE on Sunday.

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Warm air hangs on the for SE, but I wouldn't rule out some thunderstorms as well for the S and SE on Sunday.

 

I'm not ruling anything out – far from it. My friend who is organising a garden party on that day has been peppering me with questions, which I am refusing to answer. I am merely reporting what the model shows – and it shows the SE in the dry slot throughout on Sunday. Let's hope it verifies, whether it does or not, who knows?

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MetO's take on the weekend. Heavy thundery showers on Saturday for some areas, risk of rain in the S and SE on Sunday afternoon.
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/867775920689618944 

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Severe weather warnings in place for many parts of the UK over the 3 day Bank Holiday weekend .....

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings 

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Severe weather warnings in place for many parts of the UK over the 3 day Bank Holiday weekend .....

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

Chichester MetO forecast has this warning but at the same time the hour-by-hour forecast doesn't show any rain! Is the implication that any heavy rain will be local and short-lived, though intense? Or should I just wait for the routine forecast to catch up with the warnings?

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 31 May 2017 to Friday 9 Jun 2017:

Mainly dry with some sunny spells in the south and east on Wednesday. Becoming more unsettled in the north and west into Thursday with bands of cloud and rain pushing in from the west, weakening as they move eastwards. The south and southeast still at risk of further humid conditions and thundery outbreaks. Temperatures remaining rather warm. Turning more generally changeable from the end of the week and through the remainder of the period. The northwest tending to see spells of rain or showers with some drier, brighter interludes. Generally drier and brighter further southeast, but some rain at times here too. Windy at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures generally near normal in the northwest and warm at times in the south and east.

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Jun 2017 to Saturday 24 Jun 2017:

Confidence is currently low through this period, though we are more likely to see changeable conditions continue through the early part of June. More settled weather may begin to dominate for a time towards the middle of the month, mainly in the south, bringing some drier and brighter weather. Temperatures are likely to be close to normal at first, but may become generally warm, perhaps locally very warm for a time during mid June. By the latter part of the month, there is a possibility of more unsettled conditions developing once more, with spells of rain at times, and temperatures returning closer to average.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Looking a poor poor forecast by the BBC yesterday for my part of world. Got the storms about right, but the recovery after them way out. Dull, cloudy and only 14c in my part of the south coast, the people in shorts looking as foolish as the forecasters!

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Jun 2017 to Saturday 10 Jun 2017:

Thursday and Friday will be mainly dry with sunny spells for most, although cloud and rain could spread southeastwards during the day. Still rather warm and humid in the southeast, with the chance of some thundery showers. Through the rest of the period, we are likely to see a more changeable pattern becoming established across the United Kingdom, with northern and western parts seeing spells of rain or showers at times. Meanwhile, many southern and eastern parts should be drier and brighter overall, with any spells of rain that do spread southeastwards likely to be fairly weak. Windy at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be near normal in the north and west, but warm in many southern and eastern areas.

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Jun 2017 to Sunday 25 Jun 2017:

Confidence is low during this period, although we are likely to see the changeable pattern continuing across the United Kingdom through the early part of June, with a predominately west or southwesterly flow. The unsettled conditions mainly affecting northern and western parts early on, but gradually these look likely to spread southeastwards, with temperatures near normal. By mid to late June confidence remains low, although on balance we are likely to see a continuation of the changeable conditions for many, with temperatures remaining near the average. However, there is a low probability of a more settled and perhaps warmer spell of weather possible around mid-June, mainly in the southeast.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Well now that the numbers are in the recent forecasts have been an epic fail - from a temperature standpoint at least.

BBC forecasting (Friday) a high for London and the SE on Saturday (widely) at up to 28C.

Yet, max. temp in London Saturday was 21C according to the Beeb.

It's not even close.

 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 2 Jun 2017 to Sunday 11 Jun 2017:

Friday will be mainly dry with sunny spells for most, although cloud and rain will probably spread southeastwards during the day. Still rather warm and humid in the southeast, with the chance of some thundery showers developing. Through the rest of the period, we are likely to see a more changeable pattern becoming established across the United Kingdom, with northern and western parts seeing spells of rain or showers at times. Meanwhile, many southern and eastern parts should be drier and brighter overall, with any spells of rain that do spread southeastwards likely to be fairly weak. Windy at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be near normal in the north and west, but warm in many southern and eastern areas.

UK Outlook for Monday 12 Jun 2017 to Monday 26 Jun 2017:

Confidence is low during this period, although we are likely to see the changeable pattern continuing across the United Kingdom through the early part of June, with a predominately west or southwesterly flow. The unsettled conditions mainly affecting northern and western parts early on, but gradually these look likely to spread southeastwards, with temperatures near normal. By mid to late June confidence remains low, although on balance we are likely to see a continuation of the changeable conditions for many, with temperatures remaining near the average. However, there is a low probability of a more settled and perhaps warmer spell of weather possible around mid-June, mainly in the southeast.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 29 May—Sunday 4 June
Fine weather returning for a time

Bank Holiday Monday will see a lot of cloudy weather, with outbreaks of rain affecting central and northern parts, although northeast Scotland will be mainly dry. Some warm sunshine further south may trigger a few heavy afternoon showers. On Tuesday, the far north will be cloudy and damp, and a short spell of rain will cross other northern parts. Otherwise, there will be some sunny spells developing with no more than the odd shower. Wednesday and Thursday will see plenty of fine and warm weather developing although rain may reach Northern Ireland later, and this heralds a change for the end of the week: a slow breakdown to some thundery rain, eventually replacing the warmth in the southeast, with the weather turning a little cooler and fresher over the weekend.

Monday 5 June—Sunday 11 June
Some rain - often bright and warm in the southeast

For much of the week there will be a run of south westerly winds, bringing occasional bands of cloud and rain but also drier periods. These rain bands will be more potent in northwestern parts, while in the southeast any rain shouldn't last very long and won't amount to very much. Around midweek, one of the low pressure areas in the Atlantic may move close to Scotland, bringing stronger winds to many areas. Temperatures during the week won't stray far from normal in the north and west while southeastern parts are often rather warm.

Monday 12 June—Sunday 25 June
A fortnight of mixed weather likely

There is no strong indication of what type of weather will prevail in the second and third weeks of June. The most probable outcome is for the spell of mixed weather to continue. And with winds quite likely to be from a westerly quarter much of the period, this implies that southeastern areas will be rather drier and warmer than areas further north and west. Even so, all parts can expect some fine days, but equally any fine weather is unlikely to be prolonged - with occasional days of rain punctuating the dry periods. A thundery nature to some of the rainfall events should be expected.

Next week

We'll expect to give a firmer idea of the weather pattern for the first half of June.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Jun 2017 to Monday 12 Jun 2017:

Details are rather uncertain for next weekend, however, rain is most likely to clear eastwards early on Saturday with drier, brighter, fresher and showery conditions following from the west. Further cloud and outbreaks of rain are then likely from the west early next week. Through the rest of the period, a more changeable pattern is likely across the United Kingdom, with northern and western parts seeing spells of rain at times. Meanwhile, many southern and eastern parts should be drier and brighter, although some spells of rain possible here too. Windy at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be near normal generally, but perhaps warm at times in the south and east.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Jun 2017 to Tuesday 27 Jun 2017:

Confidence is low during this period, although we are likely to see the changeable pattern continuing across the United Kingdom through the period, with a predominately west or southwesterly flow and near normal temperatures. The unsettled conditions most frequently affecting northern and western parts, but also further southeast at times too. By late June confidence remains low, although on balance we are likely to see a continuation of the changeable conditions for many, with temperatures remaining near the average, although some warmer spells remain possible in the south and southeast at times too.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

In other words a downgrade of sorts for the the month of June generally speaking country wide

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 4 Jun 2017 to Tuesday 13 Jun 2017:

There will be a mixture of sunshine and showers for most on Sunday, heavier and most frequent in the northwest. Further cloud and outbreaks of rain are then likely from the southwest early next week, bringing wet and windy weather to most parts. The worst conditions will probably be in the northwest, where gales are also possible. Through the rest of the period, a more changeable pattern is likely across the United Kingdom, with northern and western parts seeing spells of rain at times. Meanwhile, many southern and eastern parts should be drier and brighter, although some spells of rain possible here too. Windy at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be near normal generally, but perhaps warm at times in the south and east.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Jun 2017 to Wednesday 28 Jun 2017:

Confidence is low during this period, although we are likely to see the changeable pattern continuing across the United Kingdom through the period, with a predominately west or southwesterly flow and near normal temperatures. The unsettled conditions most frequently affecting northern and western parts, but also further southeast at times too. By late June confidence remains low, although on balance we are likely to see a continuation of the changeable conditions for many, with temperatures remaining near the average, although some warmer spells remain possible in the south and southeast at times too.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast