Clearly this year's December 2016, looks even better for those who dislike any wintry or cold weather.

The rest of this month next 8 days look set to be dominated by our Bartlett Azores High system.

Nice clear blue skies today.  The first 8 days this month the memory of widespread night frosts is since been replaced last 2 weeks by a good amount of fog, murk and mist and often cloudy skies.  There have been some sunny days that brought us many in UK less cold but mild weather and over next week SSW winds at times dropping very light could bring some chilly nights maybe chance of fog and frost, but a plume of mild air should mean mild days for much of the UK, strengthening West SW winds over the West and North UK during Thursday just fringing W and N UK by the look of it.  The GFS, ECMWF and UKMO.

😎😃.

Another dreary run from GFS  06h op.I,m almost getting to the stage of preferring zonal flow to Euroblocking, particularly if its a brisk westerly.

The GEFS  ens at Jan 1st show 60% HP:40% zonal so still some doubt over the outcome.

At 384h 7th January split is HP 55%:Zonal 45% so some doubts on the longevity of any cold spell. There  is no real claer clusterting of the HP ens at this stage,.

While both have HP to the south, the latest runs from GFS and ECM are quite different in that the former is showing a northerly and ridging to Greenland, while ECM has us in a slack southerly. Let's see what the 12z brings and if they align, in some way.

a brief toppler. A least a few colder days before the dross returns

 

06z perturbations 5 and 12 have a similar evolution (to the operational) and don't topple (just to keep a bit of Christmas cheer):

 

 

06z perturbations 5 and 12 have a similar evolution (to the operational) and don't topple (just to keep a bit of Christmas cheer):

 

It looks like Ian@ Shropshire does not like discussing the Model Output related stuff.

I suggest we do not take us every Winter day on the bandwagon of AGW or Modern Winter Epic inflammatory conjecture.

We can discuss Bartlett and Azores and NW to N and NE raging Zonal train days and weeks if the models show them every day and week.

Those who get lucky when we do get Greenland And Iceland Blocking Mid N Atlantic High P ridging and blocking or a Cold NW to SE over UK and West to NW Europe Polar Vortex then I hope we will skip sharing our other thoughts that oppose cold frosty and wintry weather and hope so that the Moderators aka Michael and Joe Bloggs can remove those posts that deem necessary doing!!!.

We are sending the Polar Frontal Jetstream Lows on a West to East and NE track this December and we have yet to pass 31st December and already the silly posters like Shropshire Ian is not getting any nods from em all.  Your backing up nothing in your dreadful stances.😆🔚.

GFS 12z so far..

A bit blowy on Christmas Day but thankfully nowhere near as bad as it could have been http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.gif

Very mild..

Midnight into Boxing Day it's a different story and it could turn pretty wintry in parts of Scotland http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.gif Boxing Day itself it'll feel seasonal for most http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.gif

Moving into Tuesday 27th HP pushes in and we get the first of our overnight frosts. In fact Tuesday 27th should be a cracking day for many.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.gif

Another frost for some into Wednesday morning with continental SE'ly winds http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

Then another one for some into Thursday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.gif

Friday night into NYE more of a SW'ly tilt, but with more signs of amplification in the Atlantic and a weaker PV. FI, FWIW, shows signs of a toppler scenario, just like the 06z. 

In summary, very mild on Christmas Day, less stormy than it could have been (phew), cold on Boxing Day with snow for some in Scotland, then turning colder and frosty with SE'lies up until NYE (albeit less cold in the NW). 

After that, uncertain, but no real signs of extended zonality or especially mild weather.

Not far off record pressure levels on the 12Z. The last time 1050mb was reached in England was January 1932:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1201.gif

Yes the talk of relentless zonality now looks a bit presumptuous! 

Not far off record pressure levels on the 12Z. The last time 1050mb was reached in England was January 1932:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1201.gif

Bartlett. 

Apart from that, what Joe says. Potentially both very mild and then wintry on Christmas Day (the latter if the cold front moves through fast enough) and yes some very high pressure in the south at times.

Not far off record pressure levels on the 12Z. The last time 1050mb was reached in England was January 1932:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1201.gif

the BBC forecast looks rather sunny here beyond Christmas. 

GFS 12z drops the northerly but GEM has a good one that will last. Shame its a poor model

The GEFS at 240 are showing about 8 runs with northerly winds so far, will await the rest to roll out and see if the ensemble dip is more prominent tonight.
Martin

one would expect that, but the op and control are pants and more likely to be right

GFS 12z so far..

A bit blowy on Christmas Day but thankfully nowhere near as bad as it could have been http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.gif

Very mild..

Midnight into Boxing Day it's a different story and it could turn pretty wintry in parts of Scotland http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.gif Boxing Day itself it'll feel seasonal for most http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.gif

 

Moving into Tuesday 27th HP pushes in and we get the first of our overnight frosts. In fact Tuesday 27th should be a cracking day for many.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.gif

Another frost for some into Wednesday morning with continental SE'ly winds http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.gif

Then another one for some into Thursday morning http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.gif

Friday night into NYE more of a SW'ly tilt, but with more signs of amplification in the Atlantic and a weaker PV. FI, FWIW, shows signs of a toppler scenario, just like the 06z. 

In summary, very mild on Christmas Day, less stormy than it could have been (phew), cold on Boxing Day with snow for some in Scotland, then turning colder and frosty with SE'lies up until NYE (albeit less cold in the NW). 

After that, uncertain, but no real signs of extended zonality or especially mild weather.

 

 

 

Thanks for the useful summary of the Chrsitmas.At least it is more intereting than the dreary,boring  longer term runs being produced by GFS

No real sign of excitement in the ENS

On Jan 1st 60:40 HP:Zonal 

On Jan 7th 50:50 HP:zonal with little sign of any a large clusters of HP type.

Maybe just maybe the models might be about to give us a Christmas present . Gem looking good at day 10 , decent signs elsewhere 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.html